More or Less Podcast

OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)

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Summary

Summary: OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense

Main Topics

  • ClawCon Tokyo Event: First OpenAI Claw event in Asia with 1,000+ attendees in Shibuya
  • Security & Dependency Vulnerabilities: Supply chain risks with AI agents autonomously pulling packages from the internet
  • AI Infrastructure & Valuation: Critique of OpenAI's $852B and Anthropic's $360B valuations
  • Local vs. Cloud Inference: The future of AI infrastructure and energy costs
  • Individual Empowerment: Non-technical people building software through AI agents
  • Internet Collapse Scenarios: Warning about unvetted code dependencies and erosion of trust

Key Points

ClawCon Tokyo Success

  • Over 1,000 attendees in costume at Shibuya event
  • Real-time Japanese/English translation using Japan's best LLM was a "breakthrough in technical and business communication"
  • Japanese sentiment toward AI is positive vs. negative in the U.S. (attributed partly to Japan's aging population needing automation)
  • Nintendo's Artificial Life Institute exploring evolutionary algorithms and embodying "life" into computing

The Security Crisis

The Core Problem: AI agents will autonomously integrate untrusted packages at speed

  • Historically: Developers manually evaluated dependencies; risk was low-velocity
  • Now: Agents pulling multiple layers of trusted dependencies (6+ levels removed)
  • One vulnerability cascades through the entire stack
  • Dave's Prediction: "Everyone's going to do it and no one will trust anything. And the whole thing collapses."

Supply Chain Vulnerability Example

  • Recent NPM upstream package exploit where attackers injected code through compromised keys
  • Small open-source maintainers are "linchpins of the entire internet"
  • With AI speeds, vetting becomes impossible at scale

The Paradox of Restrictions

  • Any service that restricts functionality (e.g., Claude blocking certain tasks) can be bypassed instantly
  • Alternative: Rent an H100 GPU for $2/hour, run unrestricted models locally
  • Result: "As long as someone in the world provides some digital service, it will be found and you can instantly use it, which means that there can be no rules."

Internet Collapse Scenarios (Sam's Warning)

  • First Cataclysm: Death of web advertising model and traditional internet business models
  • Second Cataclysm: AI agents running amok with unvetted code → no trust in anything → system collapses

Valuation Critique

  • OpenAI: $852B valuation despite unclear path to profitability
  • Anthropic: $360B current valuation; projected $2.4T by 2031 with $78B annual EBITDA
  • Sam's Take: "Matrix multiplication is matrix multiplication. Whoever has cheap energy wins as a commodity business with no defensibility."
  • Valuations driven by narrative ("hope") not fundamentals—similar to Facebook's $40B quarterly EBITDA justifying much larger valuations
  • Retail investors now accessing private rounds through synthetic venture funds on Robinhood

Local Inference Strategy

  • Dave's Bet: Maximum long position on local inference through OpenClaw
  • Works across spectrum: Mac Mini (24GB RAM), cloud H100, wherever optimal
  • Zero lock-in: Users can switch freely between local/cloud/international providers
  • Challenge: No clear monetization model when alternatives are infinitely substitutable

Jessica's Permission Creep Story

  • Started diligent asking permission for Google service integrations via Claude
  • Quickly devolved to pressing "approve" repeatedly without reading
  • Demonstrates how permission fatigue leads to security failures
  • Tension: Traditional security architecture (multiple sandboxed agents) vs. speed/convenience trade-off

Notable Quotes

> "As long as someone in the world provides some digital service, it will be found and you can instantly use it, which means that there can be no rules."

— Sam (on the inevitability of circumventing restrictions)

> "Everyone's going to do it and no one will trust anything. And the whole thing collapses."

— Dave (on unvetted dependency cascades)

> "Matrix multiplication is matrix multiplication. Whoever has cheap energy eventually wins as a commodity business with no defensibility."

— Sam (on AI infrastructure economics)

> "This is just narrative driven. People need to store their money somewhere and they need to store it in hope."

— Sam (on valuation bubbles)

> "I just added my own feature to this and I feel so powerful."

— User feedback cited by Dave (on individual empowerment)

> "This is the era of personal software. Everyone's going to make their own tools."

— Reference to Guillermo's prediction (now validated)

> "I don't think this is software development anymore. The number of software developers goes down. Just the number of people who build software the way I write essays goes up."

— Sam (on the semantic distinction)

Takeaways

For Immediate Action

  • Stop passive consumption: Stop listening to podcasts; start actively playing with Claude, OpenClaw, and other tools
  • Build something: Pick a problem, use Claude Code to build a deployed application—it takes hours, not months
  • Upgrade to Claude Pro: $20/month or Claude Max ($200/month) is worth the investment for experimentation
  • Sandbox aggressively: If using agents locally, keep them isolated from critical systems and assume breaches

For Strategic Thinking

  • Security theater is dead: Restrictions on any platform are meaningless once alternatives exist
  • Valuation is narrative: AI company valuations lack fundamental justification; expect repricing
  • Local > Cloud may be inevitable: Energy arbitrage and control favor edge inference long-term
  • Democratization is real: Non-technical people will build software at scale within 1-2 years, disrupting Silicon Valley's moat
  • Software businesses as we know them may not scale: When anyone can build software, monopoly rents compress dramatically

The Semantic Debate

  • Dave: More people will become "software developers" (just with different tools)
  • Sam: The role dissolves; it becomes indistinguishable from writing an essay—call them creators/builders instead
  • Resolution: Terminology matters less than recognizing 10M developers can't serve 3-4B software consumers; now millions can

The Bottleneck Removal

  • Old bottleneck: Human must approve and configure every step
  • New reality: Agents auto-configure and users can't keep up with approval requests
  • Result: Security theater collapses and/or users become reckless

Context Notes

  • Recorded March 31st in Tokyo during ClawCon
  • Hosts: Dave Morin, Sam Lessin, Britt Thomasian; guest perspective from Jessica (extended coverage of her security journey)
  • Broader theme: Individual empowerment vs. systemic risk; innovation velocity vs. safety tradeoffs
Full transcript 9195 words · 62 min read
0:00

As long as someone in the world provides some digital service, it will be found and you can instantly use it, which means that there can be no rules. You're just going to have all these agents running around doing crazy things and including things they have no idea what they're doing. And they'll check the APIs, be like, yeah, that thing works. And it will, but there's going to be something hidden in it. And everyone's going to do it, and no one will trust anything. And the whole thing collapses. I need something that does this. I need something that does that. And just pulling things out of GitHub off the internet.

0:04

More or less. Is it no or is it yes? We'll debate the text that's best. But we'll get more. More or less. Dave and Britt plus Sam and Jess. Put it all right to the test. More or less.

0:06

Why, hello, friends. Welcome to More or Less. Morans, where are you? It looks dark and stormy. It's because it's morning time. On the other side of the world, we are in Japan for an annual trip we do with some of our offline founders. But also because we got to put together ClawCon Tokyo, the first ever open claw event in Asia, by the way. With our dear friend Michael Galpert. Galpert's there? I love Galpert. Yeah, Galpert. Aaron Satig's over here. Wait, Aaron Siddig's there? You got Aaron Siddig on a plane? That's like the headline news. He loves Japan. It's like the design mecca. It's easy to get designers to come to Japan. It's easier to get Aaron to meet you somewhere outside the U.S. than inside the U.S. I've actually seen him far more outside the United States than inside. Harder to get him to the peninsula, easily to get him on a 12-hour flight.

0:08

I want the three takeaways, Morans. What is the vibe in Kyoto? Give us the chi. So we had ClawCon Tokyo. I guess it was the night before last. And we had over a thousand people show up in Shibuya. Mostly in costume. Mostly in full lobster. Japanese love their cosplay. Yeah, we had great costumes, but also a lot of great Tokyo fashion. And they put together a really beautiful event. They had a lineup of fantastic local speakers. Everything from your large language models. The biggest large language model provider in Japan actually provided a really amazing real-time translation feature. So we had a massive screen that showed the content that people were talking about. But then along both sides of it, you had real-time Japanese and English translation happening with the best large language model from Japan. Which was actually a really cool experience. I've never seen that happen before in real-time at the speed at which it was happening. It was a real, in my view, a breakthrough in technical and business communication. It was really neat. So that was cool.

0:11

We did a fireside chat. One of the top podcasters in Japan talked to both Peter and I on stage about what's going on. What was the toughest question you got, Dave? What was the toughest question, Britt? They asked a pretty straightforward question. It was probably fluff. Well, it's early here, Jess. Yeah, it's interesting being here. It's a month or two behind, you know, like obviously super hyped about OpenClaw and all. And respectful. They're just respectful. So respectful. Oh my God.

0:25

Sam, that was actually the funniest thing for all of the Americans. We're like, Michael Galpert was like ready to go in there to energize the crowd like a rally. And everybody's so deferential and chill. And it was like a very zen environment. No one had to be asked to take their seats because they're already in their seats. They're in their seats 10 minutes before it started. No one's talking. Everyone's being patient and kind. It ended exactly on time. You're looking a little Asian. Did you get a haircut? I'm just not wearing a hat, Sam. That's what Dave's hair looks like. Okay.

0:36

So you guys are out there. Any other, what's the ground of Japanese tech right now? What's everyone talking about over there? We actually talked to one of the lead actors from Shogun. And also some of the Nintendo family we got to meet with yesterday, which was very cool. And everyone's perspective on AI is quite positive here versus in the U.S. It's so negative, you know, AI is less popular than ice in the U.S. Like all kinds of terrible things. And in Japan, they're just like, oh yeah, it seems fine. Like obviously we want to know when something is made with AI or not, but we don't hate it. We think it's just part of how we're evolving with technology. Yeah.

0:42

One of the cool use cases that we heard when we were talking with the actor from Shogun, he was the guy that played the sort of Judas character in Shogun, the guy who kind of betrays his master and ultimately in the end ends up dying. So he was kind of the lovable villain. But they were talking about how one of the use cases that people are using things for is when you're developing a new script, being able to embody the character into a contextual window in the language model so that you can then explore what the character might do in any given situation to make your acting better. Which I thought was a really cool use case. That was neat.

0:44

And then on more of the frontier, Jess, we have a very close relationship with the Nintendo family. They're one of our partners at offline and they have a project here in Kyoto called the Artificial Life Institute. And so they're focused on evolutionary algorithms and how to embody life into computing, which is kind of a question beyond language models is, can you understand life well enough to imbue it into a computer? And so they have a bunch of very interesting research going on around that and some great partners, the University of Tokyo and various tech companies in Japan. And so that's actually a very interesting area of unique research that Kyoto is very interested in right now.

0:50

Fascinating. Well, to be clear, the Japanese are also much more okay with this because they're running out of people. They just need agents to survive. They're like, we must evolve into agents so that we survive. They're like, America doesn't have a population problem yet, but Japan totally does. Like, yeah, we need robots. We've been into robots and we want AI immediately because we're running out of humans. Right. So I think that's part of why the vibe is so different there on this stuff.

0:57

I don't know. I think it's just, I mean, yeah, I guess that's the funny take on it, but I think they're just more utilitarian about how they think about technology. They're just like, oh yeah, this is a good new tool. We should integrate it and we should do great research. And they're much more pragmatic and matter of fact about it. And it's just like this thing that's coming. And of course we should use it. And of course we should figure it out. And let's be really great at it. Right. Um, like that's kind of more of the vibe here. Got it. Okay.

1:18

Well, I'm going to break precedent and let you guys pick the first news that we jump into. So consider this a Russian roulette of headlines of all things AI. Okay. We have a cloud code leak, open AI closing. What is it? A hundred and twenty-two billion dollar round. It's eight hundred and something. Eight hundred and fifty-two billion now. Eight hundred and fifty-two billion dollars. Is that pre or post? We've got Iran threatening US data centers. In the US or globally? No, in the Middle East.

1:34

So let's start there. We've got the fun, massive fundraise. Cloud code. Second leak from Anthropic in like a week. The first was the details of Mythos, their new model. And then the Saron story. Sam. This sure looks like a marketing strategy to me. Not a leak strategy. You think it's a marketing strategy? Yes. Okay. Say more, Dave. Well, I agree with Dave. The first one's probably marketing. So powerful. He, oh no. Yeah.

2:46

Don't. Yeah. Like that's all anytime the really powerful thing is leaked. This is not leaked. Um, it's that's fine. But I mean, that's kind of the same thing with the cloud code thing. Well, no, the cloud code thing, I think is a legit mess-up, right? Like you don't really source code. Is it the source code? I thought it was just a bunch of TypeScript related to the front end. Cloud code. Second leak from Anthropic in a week. The first was the details of Mythos, their new model. And then the Saron story. Sam. This sure looks like a marketing strategy to me. Not a leak strategy. You think it's a marketing strategy? Yes. Okay. Say more, Dave.

3:57

Well, I agree with Dave. The first one's probably marketing. So powerful. He, oh no. Yeah. Don't. Yeah. That's all any time the really, really powerful thing is leaked. This not leaked. It's that's fine. But I mean, that's the same thing with the cloud code thing. Well, no, the cloud code thing, I think is a legit fuck up, right? You don't really source code. Is it the source code? I thought it was just a bunch of TypeScript related to the front end. It's not like core, model weights and all that kind of stuff. Wait, can you, can someone explain this?

5:08

Because I've been in Japan. I don't know what happened. Is it the app? I mean, I didn't look at this in detail, obviously, but I thought that what leaked was the source code for the code endpoints, obviously the core engines code. It's the desktop installable leaked. Yeah. It's just all the TypeScript, right? But it's still, there is some interesting stuff in there in terms of how it works, which I felt you would generally not want other people to necessarily know. I saw some, this morning every single Twitter post was some hot take on what you learned by reading the core code, which is all probably generated by Claude eating itself. But it seemed mildly interesting.

5:51

I don't think you leaked that on purpose. My big take on the leaks is simple, which is there is a bunch of exploits going on where people are affected. There was this, and there's another NPM upstream package thing where someone got some keys and injected some shit. Yeah. That was actually the bigger thing on the internet yesterday, which was a serious security leak. It's always been wild to me that you have all these maintainers of these projects that get included and included and included into these projects that end up, the small piece of code that some random dude on the internet maintains is the linchpin of the entire internet. Right.

6:18

And then something goes wrong with that. Right. Or someone gets some key and all of a sudden that's compromised and everything is compromised. And this has happened forever. I do think that what's happening with AI, this is just going to get so much worse because all of a sudden everyone dangerously skips permissions because why? And you're not even evaluating the packages. This was my experience. I was going to get into Jessica's bot corner today, but you're jumping right to it. Well, this is how that all ends. I think this is a super real thing. You know, we've got obviously Peter Steinberger's over here with us.

6:49

We've got some of the top maintainers from OpenClaw, but we also, Guillermo from Vercels over here. And this is the premier question in security of the internet right now. Well, but this is not a new question. It's just the speed. Yeah. Can we define the question for those of us who don't know what these letters mean? Let's start there. What's the issue? The issue is when you're using a piece of software, it almost certainly references inside it loads of other software, tons of people developed on the internet. And when you start using your thing, you're implicitly including all of the other software written by all these people. You don't know who they are.

7:07

They're just random keys on the internet that ended up, and someone trusted it. And that person trusted someone and that person trusted someone and that person trusted someone and that person trusted six other people. So if you exploit any of those, you start including stuff in your software that you have no idea. It's six levels of trust removed that if you change two lines, you can steal everything. Right. And this is how it's always worked. And it's always been intellectually, huh, that's kind of scary, but it's kind of implicitly worked. And the reality is the incentives were kind of fine. And by the way, it did break a bunch, but it was kind of okay.

7:32

The velocity was low enough. And if you were including a new package, there was a process. Do I trust this? Do I not trust this? What are the implications? Someone was on the hook. Now you have AI agents running around looking for capabilities. I need something that does this. I need something that does that. And just pulling shit out of GitHub off the internet. Right. And using it. And because you're going so much faster, it's driving a car faster. You're moving faster. You're checking less. You're able to do way more. But the cost is there's all this implicit risk and subversion that's going to happen as a result. Right.

8:06

It's kind of grabbing random pieces of writing off the internet and praying. And I think the reality is people, this is not a new problem. Everyone understands this at some level. And what you're actually seeing play out is what it comes down to is everyone's going to say, no, we need more secure X, Y, Z. But then other people are, I don't care. I just want to go as fast as possible. Right. And I think the as fast as possible crowd will generally win because they'll be able to get more cool stuff done faster, but it will create huge security. It's a huge problem. The flip side is there will be the secure core where someone really checked all the packages. Right.

8:23

And someone knows what's in them. And you actually, the problem, and AI will help us check more and that's true, but it's so much more expensive and slower that there's going to be tension. I agree with Dave. I think all the money is not going to be made on who can run the most tokens fastest or build the coolest shit because everyone will go infinitely fast on that. You'll be able to charge an enormous premium for security and privacy. But the problem is the cost is going to be your stuff's going to suck compared to the stuff that moves fast. It's going to be slower. It's going to be ten times more expensive. And most people won't care. Right. Per usual.

8:45

And so I just think that's what's going to happen. And I mean, I do think that we're witnessing the final internet disaster of AI. The first internet disaster of AI is bye bye web and bye bye ad models and bye bye the entire business model for the whole thing. The second cataclysm of AI is going to be you're just going to have all these agents running around doing crazy shit and including things they have no idea what they're doing. And they'll check the APIs like, yeah, that thing works. And it sort of will, but there's going to be something hidden in it. And everyone's going to do it and no one will trust anything. And the whole thing collapses.

9:11

So I want to talk about Dave. I just want to share personal experience for a sec. And then you as someone who's probably studying this deeply with OpenAI, with OpenClaw would love to know, right? So Jessica's journey through cloud code yesterday is really a case in point of how these vulnerabilities can easily creep in. Sam set me up with a new version of cloud code working really well, has access to a lot of things. I decide I'm going to be a ninja over here and connect all my Google services via an MCP server. Great. Claude's going to walk me through every step of this.

9:27

I am largely following Claude's instructions, but every step or so there's a new thing that I have to accept or skip. And in the beginning, I'm going to be diligent about this and call the wonderful head of engineering at the information and get permission for him to accept such steps because that's what a reasonable person does. But then I'm like, that's taken too long and there's really way too many steps and I just want to get my email set up. Then before I know it, I'm just installing dev toolkits and I feel like a rock star. Did you press always allow? Oh no. I recognize that. No.

9:53

I decide I'm going to be a ninja over here and connect all my Google services via an MCP server. Great. Claude's going to walk me through every step of this. I'm largely following Claude's instructions, but every step or so there's a new thing that I have to accept or skip. And in the beginning, I'm diligent about this and call the wonderful head of engineering at the information and get permission for him to accept such steps because that's what a reasonable person does. But then it takes too long and there's really way too many steps and I just want to get my email set up. Then before I know it, I'm just installing dev toolkits like I'm a rock star.

9:53

Did you press always allow?

9:56

Oh no. I recognize that. No. So first it was talking to a trained, experienced professional who runs an engineering team. I'm like, Mike's busy. He has better things to do to help me. So then I'm like, who could answer this for me? Claude. So I boot up Claude in my cowork and I just sent each message to Claude. I'm like, Claude. Famous last words. They're logged in different accounts. Not that it matters. Right. And Claude is like, at first Claude's like, absolutely don't do that because that's what Claude does. Unless this is a server you set up. I'm like, yeah, yeah, no, I set it up. And they're like, great, go. So basically I feel so proud because now Claude code can tell me when my next meeting is, when I could really look at my calendar. So that's where we are in the cycle. But I had the same reaction like in January when I tried cowork and I wrote an article about this. So there's a record. I was like, oh, I'm not comfortable with giving all these permissions. And I instantly installed it. March 31st, I'm just pressing approve, approve until the cows come home. And this is really, I'm curious what you think about this. Smarter people in this. I've just decided I can't have anything important in any of these services because well, that's why you're that's why you have a completely separate instance set up in the cloud running this stuff and you're not running on your computer, right? Like we've already sandboxed it out, but you can't put all the stuff that's on your computer into the sandbox or then there's just the same. You pissed in the sandbox. But then what use is it? She's just limiting her use in that case. Right?

9:58

So here's where I really ended up. I went and I was like, it's going to be a security nightmare. People like me are going to wreak havoc on all these things because they're lazy and impatient. Then I was like, well, I'm also not going to put anything in email. I'm not going to put anything in. I'm going to assume that things could be leaked. And then more relevant to these broader debates happening now. I was like, I'm not yet sold on the interface being everything aggregated under these new AI chatbots versus just building these agent experiences in the services I already use. Because where I ended up after all of this is I'm literally asking Claude Code to do some analysis on my calendar, some analysis on my email. Well, what I really wanted is Google to do that analysis for me because it would have saved me 19 steps and concerns about what permissions I'm giving. And so I know we've been talking about this on the pod and I apologize for the length of this, but it's been really eye-opening. So I was like, I'm not going to be able to see the bundling, the bundling unbundling, right? Is the primary interface going to be one of these new chatbots or are we going to see this agent functionality rolled out across all of these services? And after my experience yesterday, I'm like, if I could just be in all these other environments and get this level of analysis, I'm not sure it needs to be all together in one place.

10:03

I'm done. Dave, tell me why I'm wrong.

10:06

I mean, I think it can be both, right? Like if we're in the era of agents and it's like when the web took off, everybody was like, oh, I can build a website. I can build a web server. I can have a database connected to my web server and I can build an application and that application can be a CRM or a CMS for running a news website. Right. And people started to figure out like I need to have these different architectures for security around, you know, all of my customers can access my web server through my website and they can read my news articles. And in order to read some of them, you have to pay for it. So I need to put up a gate for that. And we went through this whole build out of how web servers need to be architected and clouds need to be architected in order to have safe, secure experiences for users and the enterprises that generate them. Right. Like I think we're in the same era with agents right now, which is that people are experimenting with agents. You know, like if you remember in the early days of the web, people were putting web servers on the computer underneath their desk and you would come to their website and that website was being run off the computer sitting under their desk. And some of us still do that.

10:08

Yeah, I mean, some of us do, but we're in that era with agents where people are putting them on their desk. They're putting them in the cloud. There's all these questions about what's the best architecture and then what's the best interface to interact with them.

10:09

So, you know, I have, I do not allow my email, for example, to be read by my core agent. Like my core agent is super locked down, you know, has really tight security around it. But then I have other agents that do specific things that I want to get done. I've actually found that the Google Workplace plugin that Pete built for OpenAI is extremely powerful. It's way more powerful and way faster than the official Google one. And so I have an agent entirely set up just for my email and that agent reads my email, project manages it like a great project manager or chief of staff would. And it actually talks to my main agent using English in a group chat about what I should know going on in my email. And my assistant can actually also talk to that email agent and get all of the use cases she needs to get done. Right. And so that architecture is a security architecture that enables me to feel confident that I've got things sandboxed in the places that I want. And I can still interact through my main agent for all of the interface that I want. And I've got the workflows and the things that I want going on all set up nicely in my core agent. And then I know that it's secure over here. Right.

10:14

Whether or not that architecture works for you doesn't matter. So I don't know, I have a different take, which is like, first of all, I sandbox this stuff aggressively. So like, I actually don't run any of this stuff on my actual computer, right? Like I have instances running in the cloud. And I'm very clear about what I do and don't give it. But here's the interesting thing. I actually got super mad at Claude this last week because I was doing something and it was getting super mad at me because I'm just pasting raw API keys into it. And for the first time, I was like, don't do that. I was like, I don't care. Just take the keys and use them. And I'm like, that's not, I don't want this locked down. Like, I know why you want to lock this down. You're not wrong. But I'm intentionally using stuff that I don't mind. Like, it's fine in this case. Right. And so it's just this interesting thing where there's this race condition. I want the rawest tools available and then take responsibility for sandboxing them myself and knowing what I'm doing. But you're not a normal person.

10:16

No, no. But I think this is interesting to architecting these things. I think there's one version of the world. It'll be interesting how it plays out. And I personally want the most completely unrestricted, don't you dare try to lock me down version of the world that I will then completely sandbox and take responsibility for separate from my actual core identity. Now on the flip side, Dave, to your point, I'll tell you my thing is I would never get access to my email, but I do need to draft and send emails for me. In this case. Right. And so it's just this interesting thing where there's this race condition.

10:26

I want the rawest tools available and then take responsibility for sandboxing them myself and knowing what I'm doing. But you're not a normal person. No, no. But I think this is interesting to architecting these things. I think there's one version of the world. I just it'll be interesting how it plays out. And I personally want the most completely unrestricted, don't you dare try to lock me down version of the world that I will then completely sandbox and take responsibility for separate from my actual core identity. Now on the flip side, Dave, to your point, I'll tell you my thing is I would never get access to my email, but I do need to draft and send emails for me.

10:42

So I just have a totally parallel universe set up where it can draft and send things that are from me and then CC my actual email. But I treat it as a separate universe. I'll tell you a funny thing, though. It actually screwed up yesterday. I asked my CRM, I was like, hey, we're doing this creator bot school. Go find the 20 to 30 most important people that creators would want to meet with in San Francisco and invite them if they want to stop by. And it pulls up our friend Adam and Sarah and whatever. And I'm like, great. Just send them each a draft.

10:59

Create a draft to go out from not even my real email from my secondary email, that you're allowed to touch, effectively inviting them to this thing and CC my real email. Right. And hilariously, it screwed up. And instead of sending drafts, just sent them all. And I was like, ooh, I replied to each of them. So they sent probably 30, 40 of the most important people in Silicon Valley notes inviting them to this. And they weren't bad. They weren't terrible. It probably was like, what would Sam do? Sam would just send it. Just send it. So then hilariously, I then replied because I was CC'd on them. I replied to all, like, I'm really sorry.

11:20

My bot just fired this prematurely, but it is legit. And so I think one thing I want to double click on real quick is that I think Sam's right in that this goes back to what started this whole conversation, which is, you know, what's happening here from a security perspective that's profound. Like Jess, you asked this question. Like, we're now at a place where the models can just speak any language in the entire software engineering stack, and they can move up and down the stack. Models can speak assembly. They can speak TypeScript. They can speak HTML. They can speak everything in between.

11:37

And so Sam's kind of right here, which is that the raw compute, the raw power of a single computer box is now the thing that you want. You want it to just talk to the metal directly and do exactly what you want it to do in a highly sandboxed environment. And then you want to chain those together in ways that are interesting. And so that's the thing that's happening right now is that a lot of the way that we built software, which was we're going to build all these little shims in between and there's going to be all this open source software and I'm going to use yours and you're going to use mine and it's going to make my life easier.

11:42

A lot of that stuff goes away when these models can just speak all the languages and you can build anything against the compute. And I think that is breaking the entire cybersecurity model of not just the internet, but the operating system, the whole thing. And so that's the reckoning moment. So here's the other interesting thing about running the raw metal and the moment we're at with everything can speak to everything so easily is there are no more limits you can set on anything. So I'll give you a really good example. I'll be a little risqué for the sake of being risqué. There's been all of these—I'm getting an eye roll already, Jess.

11:54

We gotta get some clicks on the podcast. So here's the risqué thing. There's been this hilarious game with open AI and Claude and Grok and what they do allow and they don't allow and all this type of stuff with image generation. And, you know, just again, in experimental mode, I was making images with one of their APIs and it was content moderated. And I was like, well, that's stupid. So then I was like, hey, Claude, what's the best way to have a completely unrestricted image generation pipeline? And it was like here, just boot a GPU in this cloud, an H100, you pay two bucks an hour and download the software and run it.

12:09

And then you can just have completely unrestricted access to image generation. I was like, normally that's really annoying and hard to set up. Right. Even six months ago, I don't want to rent a raw GPU and figure out the six packages to install to do this just because I'm annoyed that I got content limited on some stupid API. Now I'm like, just set it all up for me. Right. And it works. Right. And so this idea that any one service can lock down what it will and won't do is ridiculous because as long as anything else on the internet will do it, it'll just happen.

12:22

You just ask the thing to do a much more complicated setup, which costs you nothing now and is not a time blocker to do whatever you want. Right. And so I think that's true with email sending. That's true with anything where any one of these agents tries to be like, well, if you're using Grok, you can't do blank. You're like, yeah, I can. I can do whatever I want because I have access to the raw computer and a machine that will spend hundreds of hours setting up anything down to the metal I want. It's an important paradigm shift because before, the idea that a service can be like, well, the thing you're using is blank.

12:31

And technically there's a way to do something else. It's really hard and technical to figure out. Yeah. None of this matters anymore. Now it doesn't matter. And so basically, as long as someone in the world provides some digital service, it will be found and you can instantly use it, which means that there can be no rules. Yeah. And by the way, this also invalidates the entire marketing model that Claude and open AI to some extent has been. This idea that everyone should fear these models. And at the end of the day, we're one person sharing all the weights of a model on the internet away from anyone being able to do any of this anywhere, which is just what's happening.

12:42

Right. And so we have to have a different kind of conversation about what's going on right now. I even did. Here's another example of practically as a builder. I basically just reimplemented my own Granola because I got annoyed with Granola. That's funny. I was doing the same thing. Guys, what's wrong with all these services? Like just use the services. Well, you just want customization. It sucks. I have a great one. I'll release it. It's called record a request clip. It's up. It's sick. It's actually running right now and doing the entire trend, multi-party translation, transcription, summarization. It's actually quite good.

12:59

But here's the funny thing about this. I was like, okay, I need to stop using Granola. This is annoying me with its features. So I was like, build my own version. So start building it. And then I'm like, cool. I need the transcription and summarization. And use it. It's like, great. We'll use ChatGPT's Whisper or whatever to do it. I don't even think about it. It's done. But then it starts limiting me. And I'm like, that's not right.

13:04

So I'm like, fine. What's a better service to use, right? To actually do this properly. Right. And it hilariously pointed me at Assembly AI, which by the way, we received investors and I put a hundred K into their first round, but they're crushing it. And it's perfect. And so I'm like, great. This is cheaper. This does multi-party full transcription of everything. It's way better. So again, this goes back to there's no way for anyone to make real money on any of these things. Like, if I don't like one service or it cuts me off, it's like there's no implementation costs. I'm just like, do the better one.

13:16

So I'm fine. What's a better service to use, right? It gets going to actually do this properly. Right. And hilariously, it pointed me at Assembly AI, which by the way, we received investors and I put a hundred K into their first round, but they're crushing it. And it's perfect. So I'm like, great. This is cheaper. This does multi-party full transcription of everything. It's way better. So again, this goes back to there's no way for anyone to make real money on any of these things. If I don't like one service or it cuts me off, there's no implementation costs. I'm just like, do the better one.

13:19

But Sam, just to push you on that. The theme in this episode about you, and I love all this experimentation. So far, the theme is chaos. I'd like to bring us back to, you know. I think it's Sam goes unhinged and which is fine for Sam because he knows technology and how to manage and how to build new things. But for the 98% of people who are just going to stick with Granola, because even though they can maybe vibe code a thing, they just don't care. It's good enough. They've got a good brand. They trust it. I actually disagree with you because I think that there are going to be a lot of services and pieces of software that maintain their stickiness because normies just want what they want and they don't want to change. They just want it to be good enough.

13:20

The through line is like, I was walking through Kyoto last night with Guillermo and we were talking about, we were here together like a year ago and a year ago he gave this example. You can go back in his Twitter and look at it. Hey guys, I vibe coded this. There's this annoying thing that I try to do, which is change JSON into convert it into a different format. And all of the tools on the internet are really difficult for this and they're filled with ads. So I just made my own and he got super negative feedback on the internet. He's like, this is the era of personal software. Everyone's going to make their own tools. And a year ago, people were like, that's not what's happening. That's not what's going to happen. It was super negative takes from everybody on the internet.

13:23

Where are we today? The use case Sam just said is pretty insane. He wanted his own version of Granola. He just built it. It took him a day and Sam's a super high agency builder, right?

13:23

The through line on this is that people are going to be able to just request the software that they want in one to two years from now. And it will just materialize onto the internet. And I do think that's actually an extremely important trend that is now just happening. And I think that's a big change in the mental model of where we're going because it's going to happen. And I think normies are actually going to request things. That's why I'm so bullish on software and so negative on software businesses. Because I just don't, these are just tokens.

13:25

Okay, friends, you can keep on this topic, but I am going to bounce. And I suggest you go to OpenAI's monster fundraising, complete with $3 billion in raises from retail investors. What does that say about the prospects for an IPO? $3 billion out of how much, how many billions? How many billions went in? Still $3 billion. But out of like a hundred. That's right. Because the 1% controls 99% of the wealth, right? So they put in 99% of the dollars and retail puts in 20 bucks.

13:26

When is the last time retail put money into a private technology round? How did the retailers put money in? Well, now they are through these new synthetic instruments, right? Isn't that one of the big stories of the last two weeks? You've got these crazy new synthetic venture funds that are being traded on Robinhood. And I can't remember the name of the other one that contains the stock. Right. And they're investing in the top 10 tech companies. Yes. SpaceX and OpenAI and just buying allocation, right? I don't know, Sam. Do you know what these things are called? I don't really care.

13:33

Do you care about the valuation of OpenAI being $850 billion now? I just don't. It's like, they're ridiculous, this is just ridiculous. I mean, whatever. It doesn't, if you want to buy 20 cents of infrastructure per dollar in a thing with increasing competition where it turns out the story of whoever gets to AGI first doesn't win, God bless. I mean, I think the story is people don't know where to put any money and money's cheap, right? But I don't know. It's fine. I have no opinion. It's, I don't understand. I mean, the only opinion I would have is it's so clear to me. This is, all right, everybody's annoyed with the topics we're talking about. So let's move on.

13:38

Well, I just, it's so obvious that matrix multiplication is matrix multiplication. And Dave, we've talked about this. Whoever has cheap energy eventually wins as a commodity business with no defensibility. It's not even locally regulated. It won't be until someone makes some security argument. And there's no capacitor issue. It's just infinitely available globally. And you can VibeCode whatever the hell you want. So God bless. I mean, I don't understand how any of these companies make sense.

13:41

Did you see that KOTU chart, which was like their underwriting of Anthropic? Yeah, I think I did. I like their charts. I think that's a Karen thing, which is awesome. The C-back. Oh, interesting. Oh, good old Karen. What did the charts say, Dave? Once you have agentic, basically number go up once the agent spends its own money.

13:51

I mean, here's the funny thing. The big bottleneck on AI spend and AI stuff in general was that you had to have human input. And there's the interfaces. So what Cloud Code does and what OpenClaw does and what OpenRap, all of these things are doing. And now Codex is just, hey, let's get rid of the bottleneck, which is the human. So we just can spin circles as much as we want. And then Sam can all of a sudden not hit accept, accept, accept, or deal with whatever limitations exist in ChatGPT's interface. I can just be like, build me Granola and change the limits and make it more shareable. And it does it. And it's great. And it works really well, which means there's no-

13:54

Did you actually prompt it to build a replica of Granola? No, I had a slightly different take on what I wanted, which is actually totally sweet. You guys are going to love it. Here's the chart. Are you on, why are you on KuCoin? We're talking about crypto? I just was looking for this Anthropic KOTU chart. And you found it on a crypto website? Explain this chart and especially for people that can't see it visually right now. Translate it. You can request clip. Can you get on that? Probably. Actually, we'll translate it. Yeah.

14:10

Today, the valuation, at the point they were doing this investment, you know, Anthropic's valuation was $360 billion and that they're on track to a $2.4 trillion valuation by 2031 and that their EBITDA will go from negative $14 billion today per year to $48 billion per year in 2030 and $78 billion per year in 2031. Like, Sam, do you buy this? No. And even if I did buy this, the funny part about that is while $48 billion in EBITDA is a very large number, that does not justify the valuation that we're talking about.

14:34

Well, it's $18 billion. What did they say in that chart? It was $18 billion in 2026 revenue with $14 billion loss and their valuation's at $360 billion right now. Up with $18 billion. Yes. It's like Facebook does $40 billion a quarter in EBITDA, right? And like now, right? So I'm just, I just, it's, this is all just like narrative driven. And look, I get it. per year to $48 billion per year in 2030 and $78 billion per year in 2031. Sam, do you buy this? No. And even if I did buy this, the funny part about that is while $48 billion in EBITDA is a very large number, that does not justify the valuation that we're talking about. Well, it's $18 billion.

15:17

What did they say in that chart? It was $18 billion in 2026 revenue with $14 billion loss and their valuation's at $360 billion right now. Up with $18 billion. Yes. It's Facebook does $40 billion a quarter in EBITDA, right? And now, right? So I'm just, this is all narrative driven. And look, I get it. People need to store their money somewhere and they need to store it in hope, right? Is the upshot, especially when they don't know what else to put it in, right? You're going to either put it in gold or hope. And this is the hope thing at scale and people need things for hope at scale. So that's fine.

15:44

But it's, from a fundamental business perspective, none of this makes any financial sense and it's not going to, right? It's just a question of how that plays out. It could be that because people need to put money in hope, it doesn't actually matter. Hope goes up and everyone does fine, right? But it's a hell of a narrative to believe. It is quite religious. Dave, do you have a counter to that? Or are you more aligned with Sam these days? I think the wild card is local inference. My bet's been made here. I've taken an extremely long bet on local inference by going maximum deep in open claw and in how is that just to push you? Is that local?

16:15

It's inference, inference anywhere. It doesn't matter. It's both. I know, but I think it's both. We're going maximum deep and taking a maximum long position in local inference and open claw because we just believe. Are you buying Apple stock then? They're the local inference company. I already own a lot of Apple stock. So that's your bet. Well, I think that's our bet, but we're also, Sam, we're going to seed. We're going to seed a ton of companies in this direction. And we think that this is a lot of people frame this as it's hyperscalers in cloud AI or local inference. I think it's both. I think it's going to be both. I just think it's whatever fits. Yeah, definitely.

17:07

I mean, I'll go back to my image generation blockage. I have an image generation issue in a cloud service. So I'm going to put it locally on my Mac mini with 24 gigs of RAM. It's fine. It's actually better. And I want even better. So I'm going back to an H 100. And the reality is the fact that I can just sit there and in three commands while I'm doing other stuff, do that is mind blowing. But it means there's no lock in on anything. I'm just going to sit there and price and quality optimize. There's zero lock.

18:16

I can switch local. I can go cloud. I can go to China, I can go to whatever the hell I want. And it's a super powerful thing as a builder. I just don't know how anyone makes any money on it. We're going to bring this to a close soon, but I'm curious with where things are at right now today. And Sam, you're obviously breaking a lot of the mold here. I mean, we all are in different ways, but what would you advise our audience is the key takeaway of all of this that we've been discussing today's episode? We've gone from security to cloud local, the future of all of this, everything goes to zero, Sam's everything goes to zero line.

19:15

If our listeners are leaving this episode, what is it that they should do this week or think about more deeply this week? What they should do this week, other than if they haven't been invited, come to our creator bots on that, which is going to be so fun. I'm bummed to miss it, man. It's going to be so good. I'm so excited for this week. The number one thing you must be doing is aggressively playing with everything. Could not agree with this more. This is a moment where you should not be reading, listening to podcasts. Stop listening to this podcast. I'm only half listening to this podcast.

20:29

Listen to the podcast and learn and then go play. You should be playing with everything and having your own opinions because the reality is my best experience of last week was that we were in Alaska. David left. So it was me and a bunch of very non-technical, wonderful people and excellent skiers. And I back to back sat down with these great people and said, actually, in this case, I did use Granola. I said, let's talk. They had some app ideas. I said, great. Let's talk about it for 30 minutes. We sat down. We just discussed it for 30 minutes. I literally all I did was take the Granola summary and the Granola transcript. And I stuck it in my Claude instance.

21:41

And I said, make this. And it produced you cannot believe how good stuff—I'm talking about fully deployed, amazing things. One of which is almost certainly going to become a very real thing that an amazing person wanted to build and just didn't have the technical language to do it. But I was there for the first part of this. The second part got even better, but it booted the whole thing and it works and it's actually leveraged for them. And that is wild, right? This is the time. It's funny. I actually think that Silicon Valley and your average PM slash engineer Silicon Valley hilariously did just completely disrupt themselves.

22:24

You no longer have a stranglehold on anything in building. And the building is going to go back to people who actually know what they're talking about and have community and have insight into the specific markets. I think this is the best time to be a generalist by Claude Max, at least for a month. It's 200 bucks. It's totally worth it. And just go to town figuring out what you can do. And if you can come to a bot school, come to someone who can teach you the little shim that's missing because you do need a database. You do need to be able to spit up app servers.

23:10

There's a little bit missing, but it's the pieces that are missing are achingly small and simple at this point. And the second your bot can send the email, send SMS, remember things in a database, use an asset store and have an app server. You can do unbelievable stuff, right? And that is the moment. Dave, what about you? What's your take for any of the listeners? I think that this stuff is just incredibly empowering and the use case that Sam was talking about is a dear friend of ours. And the web application that was built was something where this person was trying to get budget for this, build this thing for a couple of years.

23:38

And the case that Sam explained became extremely empowering. And then once this person understood how to use these tools themselves, Sam and I got a text message yesterday from the person and they said, I just added my own feature to this and I feel so powerful. And that's such an amazing thing. And to me, people were asking me on stage in Tokyo, what's most inspiring to you about all of this?

23:55

And that's what I keep coming back to is the individual empowerment and the power that people feel to create their own, whether it's a website or a little app for their computer, or even just seeing our 11 year old create his own games and put them onto his phone and put them onto his friend's phone. This is just fun and awesome. And it's not as hard as people think for a variety of different things. And I think that's maybe why we went so long on this topic on this pod is it's just very inspiring to watch people who are non-technical being able to create their own software. Right.

24:31

And that's such an amazing thing. To me, people were asking me on stage in Tokyo, why are you, what's most inspiring to you about all of this? And that's what I keep coming back to is the individual empowerment and the power that people feel to create their own, whether it's a website or a little app for their computer, or even just seeing our 11 year old create his own games and put them onto his phone and put them onto his friend's phone. This is just fun and awesome. And it's not as hard as people think for a variety of different things.

24:34

And I think maybe why we went so long on this topic on this pod is it's very inspiring to watch people who are normies being able to create their own software. And I've said it many, many times on the pod, but there's only about 10 million software developers or so that make the software for over 3 to 4 billion people that use mobile phones and software in the world. And the amount people are using software is not going down. In fact, the consumption of software is going up faster than it ever has in history.

24:52

And so I think people are going to continue to want software the way they want music. And the fact that more people can make this than ever before, I think is a really good thing. Does that mean that there's going to still be as many trillion dollar companies? Maybe not. But does that mean that you can build a million, a hundred million, billion dollar companies and a lot more of them in the software world? Probably. And so I just think it's very, very empowering and inspiring to watch people do this. I think that's where Sam and Dave do disagree. Yeah, this is my closing question, which I think you're going to know exactly what I'm going to ask.

25:30

Which is Dave, we agree on so much. The thing we disagree on is I don't think this is software development anymore. To me, the answer is the number of software developers goes down. And just the number of people who build software the way I write essays goes up. Do you still feel, timestamping on March 31st, that the number of software developers is going to go up? Or just the number of people who build software the way they write an essay?

25:41

I just think it's a semantic difference, right? Sam, you have a fund for creators, right? Is a creator somebody who posts to their story on Instagram or is a creator somebody who transitions from posting videos and telling stories on their personal Instagram to becoming much more professional about it and telling stories at much larger scale? I don't know what you call someone who begins now to speak the language of computers and build their own software to give it to people that are more than just their friends and start building a business on it. That's a semantic battle, I guess, that we can have.

25:49

But to me, the idea that more than 10 million people now can make software for the billions of people that use it every day, that's a really positive thing. And whatever we call them, we call them. But I think it's very, very great. Fair enough. Yeah. I think we got somewhere today, gentlemen, by the end of this. Enjoy Japan. We are going to enjoy more of Japan. We've got some interesting stuff going on here in the next couple of days. We'll report back further next week on this podcast. And Jess, we missed the rest of Jess, but I'm sure she's going to have some big updates for us soon, too.

25:56

So thanks to everyone who listened in this episode. Thanks to everyone for liking, subscribing, commenting. I had some shout outs, by the way, at Tokyo Clock Con for our pod from the Japanese, which was amazing. So we're global, you guys. We're going somewhere in the world. Wild. They must love me in Japan. Okay. We'll get Sam here one day. Have fun guys. Talk to you soon. Thanks everyone. We'll see you back next week for another episode of More or Less. Bye bye. Bye bye.

26:09

If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at More or Less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson. And as for me, I'm at Britt. See you guys next time. Bye bye. And I was like, well, that's stupid. So then I was like, hey, Claude, what's the best way to like have a completely unrestricted image generation pipeline?

26:25

And it was like here, just like boot a GPU in this cloud and H100, you pay two bucks an hour and like download the software and like run it. And then you can just have completely unrestricted access to image generation. I was like, normally that's really annoying and hard to set up. Right. Even six months ago, like I don't want to rent a raw GPU and figure out the six packages to install to like do this just because like I'm annoyed that I got content limited on some stupid API. Now I'm like, just set it all up for me.

26:53

Right. And it works. Right. And so like this idea that like any one service can lock down like what it will and won't do is ridiculous because as long as anything else on the internet will do it, like it'll just happen. You just ask the thing to like do you do a much more complicated setup, which costs you nothing now and is not like a time stock to do whatever you want. Right. And so I think that's true with email sending. That's true with anything where like any one of these agents tries to be like, well, if you're using Grok, you can't do blank.

27:24

You're like, yeah, I can. I can do whatever I want because I have like access to the raw computer and a machine that will spend hundreds of hours setting up anything down to the metal I want. Like it's an important paradigm shift because it's like before like the idea that a service can be like historically be like, well, the thing you're using is blank. And like technically there's a way to do something else. It's really hard and technical to figure it out. Yeah. None of this matters anymore.

27:46

Now it doesn't matter. And so like basically as long as someone in the world provides some digital service, it will be found and you can instantly use it, which means that there can be no rules. Yeah. And by the way, this also invalidates the entire, the entire marketing model of like Claude and open AI to some extent has been this like everyone should fear these models. And like, you know, at the end of the day, like we're like what one person sharing all the weights of a model on the internet away from like anyone being able to do any of this anywhere, which is just like, that is what's happening.

28:22

Right. And so we have to have a different kind of conversation about what's going on right now. I even did. Here's another example of practically as a builder. Like I basically just re implemented my own granola because I got annoyed with granola. That's funny. I was doing the same thing. Guys, what's wrong with all these services? Like just use the services. Well, you just want like customization. It sucks. I have a great one. I'll release it. It's called record a request clip. It's up. It's sick. It's actually running right now and doing the entire trend, multi-party translation, like transcription, summarization. It's actually quite good.

28:58

But here's the funny thing about this. I was like, okay, I need to like stop using granola. Like this is like annoying me with its features. So I was like, build my own version. So start building it. And then I'm like, cool. Like I need the transcription and summarization. And like use it. It's like, great. We'll use chat GPT's whisper or whatever to do it. I don't even think about it. It's done. But then it starts limiting me. And I'm like, that's not right.

29:18

So I'm like, fine. Like what's a better service to use, right? It gets going to actually do this properly. Right. And it hilariously, it pointed me at assembly AI, which by the way, we received investors and I put a hundred K into their first round, but they're crushing it. And it's perfect. And so I'm like, great. This is cheaper. This does multi-party full transcription of everything. It's like way better. So again, this goes back to like, there's no way for anyone to make real money on any of these things. It's like, if I don't like one service or it cuts me off, it's like, there's no implementation costs. I'm just like, do the better one.

29:48

But Sam, just to push you on that. Like, again, I think the theme in this episode about you, and I love all this experimentation. So far, the theme is chaos. I'd like to bring us back to, you know. I think it's like Sam, it goes unhinged and like, which is fine for Sam because he knows technology and how to manage and how to build new things. But like for the 98% of people who are just going to stick with granola, because even though they can like maybe vibe code a thing, they just don't fucking care.

30:17

It's good enough. They've got a good brand. They trust it. You know, like, I, I actually disagree with you because I think that there are going to be a lot of services and pieces of software that maintain their stickiness because normies just want what they want and they don't want to change. And they just like want it to be good enough. I don't know. I don't know. The through line is like, I was walking through Kyoto last night with Guillermo and we were talking about the, we were here together like a year ago and a year ago, like he gave this example. You can go back in his Twitter and look at it like, hey guys, I vibe coded this.

30:54

You know, there's this annoying thing that I try to do, which is like change JSON into like convert it into a different format. And all of the tools on the internet are really difficult for this and they're filled with ads. And so I just made my own and he got super negative feedback on the internet. He's like, this is the era of personal software. Everyone's going to make their own tools. And a year ago, people were like, that's not what's happening. That's like not what's going to happen. It was like the super negative takes from everybody on the internet. Where are we today? Like the use case Sam just said is like pretty insane.

31:29

Like he wanted his own version of granola. He just built it. It took him a day and Sam's a super high agency builder, right? The through line on this is that people are going to be able to just request the software that they want in like one to two years from now. And it will just materialize onto the internet. And I do think that's like actually an extremely important trend that is, it's now just happening. And I think that's like a big, big change in the mental model of where we're going because like it's going to happen. And I think normies are actually going to request things. That's why I'm so bullish on software and so negative on software businesses.

32:08

Because I'm just like, I don't like, just, these are just tokens. Okay, friends, you can keep on this topic, but I am going to bounce. And I suggest you go to OpenAI's monster fundraising, complete with $3 billion in raises from retail investors. What does that say about the prospects for an IPO? $3 billion out of like a, how much, how many billions? How many billions went in? Still $3 billion. But out of like a hundred. That's right. Because 90, the 1% controls 99% of the wealth, right? So they put in 99% of the dollars and retail puts in 20 bucks. When is the last time retail put money? I think you're missing the forest for the trees.

32:50

When is the last time retail put money into a private technology round? How did the retailers put, how did they put money in? Well, now they are through these new synthetic instruments, right? Like, isn't that one of the big, one of the big stories of the last two weeks is you've got these like crazy new, synthetic venture funds that are being traded on Robinhood. And I can't remember the name of the other one that contains the stock. Right. And they're investing in like the top 10 tech companies. Yes. SpaceX and OpenAI and just buying allocation, right? I don't know, Sam. Do you know what these things are called? I don't really care.

33:26

Do you care about the valuation of OpenAI being $850 billion now? I just don't. I mean, like, they're just, this is like a ridiculous, this is just ridiculous. I mean, it's like, whatever. It doesn't like, if you want to buy 20 cents of infrastructure per dollar in a thing with like increasing competition where it turns out the story of whoever gets to AGI first doesn't win, God bless. I mean, I think the story is people don't know where to put any money and money's cheap, right? But I don't know. Like, it's fine. I have no opinion. It's like, I don't understand. I mean, the only opinion I would have is like, it's so clear to me.

33:58

This is the, all right, everybody's annoyed with the topics we're talking about episode. So let's move on. Well, just like, I just, it's like so obvious that the, like, basically, hilariously, matrix multiplication is matrix multiplication. And Dave, we've talked about this. It's like, whoever has cheap energy eventually wins as a commodity business with no defensibility. It's not even, not locally regulated. It won't be until someone makes some security argument. And there's no, there's no capacitor issue. Like, it's just infinitely available globally. And you can VibeCode whatever the hell you want. And so God bless.

34:29

I mean, I don't understand how any of these companies make sense. Did you see that KOTU chart, which was like their underwriting of Anthropic? Yeah, I think I did. I like, I like their charts. That's a Karen, I think that's a Karen Marooney thing, which is awesome. The C-back. Oh, interesting. Oh, good old Karen. What did the charts say, Dave? Like, once you have agentic, the basically number go up once the agent spends its own money. I mean, basically, here's the funny thing. It's like the big bottleneck on AI spend and AI stuff in general was that you had to have human input. And there's like the interfaces.

35:00

And so what Cloud Code does and what OpenClaw does and what OpenRap, like all of these things are doing. And now Codex is just like, hey, let's get rid of the bottleneck, which is the human. So we just can spin circles as much as we want. And then Sam can all of a sudden not hit accept, accept, accept, or deal with whatever limitations exist in chat GPT's interface. I can just be like, build me Granola and change the limits and make it more shareable. And it does it. And it's great. And it works really well, which means there's no- Did you actually prompt it to build a replica of Granola?

35:29

No, I had a slightly different take on what I wanted, which is actually totally sweet. You guys are going to love it. Here's the chart. Are you on- Why are you on KuCoin? We're talking about crypto? I just was looking for this Anthropic KOTU chart. And you found it on a crypto website? Explain this chart and especially for people that can't see it visually right now. Translate it. You can- You can- Request clip. Can you- Can you get on that? Probably. Actually, we'll translate it. Yeah. Today, the valuation or at the point they were doing this investment, you know, Anthropic's valuation was $360 billion and that they're on track to a $2.4 trillion

36:08

valuation by 2031 and that their, you know, EBITDA will go from negative $14 billion today per year to $48 billion per year in 2030 and $78 billion per year in 2031. Like, Sam, do you- do you buy this? No. And even if I did buy this, the funny part about that is while $48 billion in EBITDA is like a very large number, that does not justify the valuation that we're talking about. Well, it's $18 billion. What did they say in that chart? It was $18 billion in 2026 revenue with $14 billion loss and their valuation's at $360 billion right now. Up with $18 billion. Yes. It's like Facebook does $40 billion a quarter in EBITDA, right? And like now, right?

36:56

Like, so I'm just like, I just, it's, this is all just like narrative driven. And look, I get it. People need to store their money somewhere and they need to store it in hope, right? Is the upshot, especially when they don't know what else to put it in, right? You're going to either put it in gold or hope. And like, this is the hope thing at scale and people need things for hope at scale. So like, that's fine. But it's like, from a fundamental business perspective, none of this makes any financial sense and it's not going to, right? It's just a question of like how that plays out. It could be that because people need to put money in hope, it doesn't actually matter.

37:27

Like hope go up and everyone does fine, right? But it's a hell of a narrative to believe. It is quite religious. Dave, do you have a counter to that? Or do you, are you more aligned with Sam these days? I don't, I think the wild card is local inference. Like, you know, my, my bet's been made here. Like I've taken an extremely long bet on local inference by, you know, we're going, we're going maximum deep in the, in open claw and in, you know, how is that just to push you? Is that local? It's like just inference in the, inference anywhere. It doesn't matter. It's both. I know, but I think it's both.

38:05

Like we're going maximum deep and taking a maximum long position in local inference and open claw because we just believe. Are you buying Apple stock then? They're the local inference company. I already own a lot of Apple stock, you know, like. So that's your bet. I mean. You know, well, I think that's our bet, but we're also, Sam, we're going to seed. We're going to seed a ton of companies in this direction. And like, we think that this is like, I don't think it's a question of, or like a lot of people frame this as it's hyperscalers in cloud AI or local inference. I think it's, and I think it's going to be both. I just think it's whatever fit. Yeah, definitely.

38:41

I mean, like I, this is again, I'll go back to my image generation blockage. I have like an image generation issue in a cloud service. So I'm like, all right, just like put it locally on my Mac mini with 24 gigs of RAM. It's fine. It's actually better. And I'm like, yeah, I want even better. So like, I'm go back to an H 100. Right. And like the reality is the fact that I can just sit there and in three commands while I'm doing other stuff, do that is mind blowing. But it means there's no lock in on anything. I'm just going to sit there and price and quality optimize. Right. Like there's zero lock. I can switch local. I can go, I can go cloud.

39:13

I can go to China, I can go to whatever the hell I want. Right. And like, again, it's a super powerful thing as a builder. I just don't know how anyone makes any money on it. We're going to bring this to a close soon, but I'm curious with where things are at right now today. And Sam, you're obviously breaking a lot of the mold here. I mean, we all are in different ways, but what would you advise our audience is the key takeaway of all of this that we've been discussing today's episode? We've gone from security to sort of like cloud local, like the future of all of this, everything goes to zero, you know, Sam's everything goes to zero line.

39:49

Like, if our listeners are leaving this episode, what is it that they should do this week or think about more deeply this week? So what they should do this week, other than if they haven't, if they've been invited, come to our creator bots on that, which is gonna be so fun. I'm bummed to miss it, man. It's gonna be so good. I'm like so excited for this week. The number one thing you must be doing is aggressively playing with everything. Could not agree with this more. This is a moment where like you should not be reading, listening to podcasts. Stop listening to this podcast. I'm only half listening to this podcast. I'm Yeah.

40:23

Listen to the podcast and learn and then go play. You should be playing with everything and having your own opinions and a lot because the reality is, I mean, this was my best experience of last week was that we were in Alaska. David left. So it was me and a bunch of very non-technical, wonderful people and excellent skiers. And I back to back sat down with these great people and said, actually, in this case, I did use granola. I said, let's talk. They had some amp ideas. I said, great. Let's talk about it for 30 minutes. We sat down. We just discussed it for 30 minutes. I literally, all I did was take the granola summary and the granola transcript.

40:56

And I stuck it in my Claude instance. And I said, make this. And it produced, you cannot believe how good stuff like I'm talking about fully deployed, amazing things. One of which is actually almost certainly become like actually a very real thing that an amazing person wanted to build and just like didn't have the technical language to do it. But like, I guess I was there for the first part of this. Like this was a really cool story. The second part got even better, but like it booted the whole thing and it works and it's actually leveraged for them. And like, that is wild, right? Like this is the time. It's funny.

41:29

I actually think that Silicon Valley and at least, you know, let's call it your average PM slash engineer Silicon Valley hilariously did just completely disrupt themselves. You no longer have a stranglehold on anything in building. And the building is going to go back to people who actually know what they're talking about and have community and have insight into the specific markets. I think this is like the best time to be a generalist by Claude Max, at least for a month. It's 200 bucks. It's totally worth it. And just go to town and figuring out what you can do. And if you can come to a bot school, come to someone who can teach you how to do like

42:02

the little shim that's missing because you do need a database. You do need to be able to spit up app servers. There's like a little bit missing, but it's like, Dave knows this. I know this. The pieces that are missing are achingly small and simple at this point. And the second your bot can like send the email, send SMS, remember things in a database, use an asset store and have an app server. You can do unbelievable stuff, right? Like, and like that is the moment. Dave, what about you? What's your take for any of the listeners? I think that this stuff is just incredibly empowering and that, you know, the use case that Sam was talking about is a dear friend of ours.

42:39

And the web application that was built was, you know, something where this person was trying to, you know, get budget for this, build this thing for a couple of years. And, you know, the case that Sam explained became extremely empowering. And then once this person understood how to use these tools themselves, like Sam and I got a text message yesterday from the person and they said, I just added my own feature to this and I feel so powerful. Right. And like, that's such an amazing thing. And like, to me, like people were asking me on stage in Tokyo, like, why are you, you know, what, what, what's this, what's most inspiring to you about all of this?

43:19

And that's like, what I keep coming back to is the individual empowerment and the, the, the power that people feel to create their own, whether it's a website or a little app for their computer, or, you know, even just seeing our 11 year old create his own games and put them onto his phone and put them onto his friend's phone. Like, this is just fun and awesome. And it's not as hard as people think for a variety of different things. And I think that's like, maybe why we went so long on this topic on this pod is it's just very inspiring to watch people who are normies being able to create their own software.

43:57

And I've said it many, many times on the pod, but there's only like 10 million software developers or so that make the software for over, you know, three to 4 billion people that use mobile phones and software in the world. And the amount people are using software is not going down. Right. Like, in fact, the consumption of software is going up faster than it ever has in history. And so I think people are going to continue to want software like they want music. And the fact that more people can make this than ever before, I think is a really good thing. Does that mean that there's going to still be, you know, as many trillion dollar companies? Maybe not.

44:43

But does that mean that you can build, you know, deck a million, a hundred million billion dollar companies and a lot more of them in the software world? Probably. And so I just think it's very, very empowering and inspiring to watch people do this. I think that's where Sam and Dave do disagree. Yeah, this is my closing question, which I think you're going to know exactly what I'm going to ask. Right. Which is Dave, our big we agree on so much. The thing we disagree on is I don't think this is like software development anymore. This is like, and to me, like the answer is the number of software developed software developers goes down.

45:13

And just the number of people who like build software the way I write essays goes up. Right. Do you still feel, well, timestamping on March 31st, that the number of software developers is going to go up? Or just the number of people who like build the way there is software, the way they write an essay? I just think it's a, it's like a semantic difference, right? Like Sam, you have a fund for creators, right? Like is a creator, somebody who posts to their story on Instagram or is a creator, somebody who transitions from posting videos and telling stories on their personal Instagram to becoming much more professional about it and telling story at much larger scale.

45:51

Like, I don't know what you call someone who begins now to speak the language of computers and build their own software to, you know, give it to people that are like more than just their friends and start maybe perhaps building a business on it. Like, that's like a semantic, a semantic battle, I guess, that we can have. But to me, like the idea that more than 10 people, 10 million people now can like make software for the billions of people that use it every day, like that's a really positive thing. And whatever we call them, we call them. But like, I think it's very, very great. Fair enough. Yeah.

46:27

I think, I think we're gonna, I think we got somewhere today, gentlemen, sort of by the end of this. Enjoy Japan. We are gonna enjoy more of Japan. We've got some interesting stuff going on here in the next couple of days. We'll report back further next week on this podcast. And, you know, Jess, we missed, we missed the rest of Jess, but I'm sure she's gonna have some big updates for us soon, too. So thanks to everyone who listened in this episode. Thanks to everyone for liking, subscribing, commenting. I had some shout outs, by the way, at Tokyo Clock Con for our pod from the Japanese, which was amazing. So we're global, you guys.

47:02

We're, we're going somewhere in the world. Wild. They must, they must love me in Japan. Okay. We'll get Sam here one day. Uh, have fun guys. Talk to you soon. Thanks everyone. We'll see you back next week for another episode of More or Less. Bye bye. Bye bye. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson. And as for me, I'm at Britt. See you guys next time. Bye bye.

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