How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China & Power is the Bottleneck to AI | Perplexity CEO
Description
Aravind Srinivas is the Founder and CEO of Perplexity, one of the fastest-growing AI companies in the world. Since the start of the year, Perplexity has tripled revenue to well over $500M in ARR. Aravind has raised over $1BN for the company with reported valuations reaching $20BN. ----------------------------------------------- Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:25 — From Lower-Middle-Class India to a $20B AI Company 03:04 — “Attack, Attack, Attack”: Aravind’s Founder Mentality 04:06 — Why Perplexity Forced Google to Change Search Forever 08:27 — OpenAI, Agents & Where the Money Actually Is 12:05 — “The Model Is Not the Product” 18:42 — AI Agents Will Generate More Revenue Than Google Ads? 27:03 — The Future of 24/7 AI Agents 32:50 — Why Perplexity Thinks It Can Become the Ultimate AI Orchestrator 34:57 — The Biggest AI Bottleneck Nobody Can Ignore: Power 43:18 — Can Inference Companies Become the Next $100B Giants? 48:57 — The Next Massive AI Bottleneck (and Why It’s Not Models) 54:04 — Did U.S. Export Controls Accidentally Make China Stronger? 58:27 — The AI Jobs Narrative Is All Wrong 01:01:06 — Why Future Unicorns Will Need Far Fewer Employees 01:13:07 — Wealth Inequality, AI & The New American Dream 01:19:44 — Why Perplexity Is Training Its Own Models 01:21:41 — “Perplexity Was Voted Most Likely to Fail” 01:23:15 — Turning Perplexity Into an AGI-Powered Company 01:25:38 — SpaceX vs OpenAI vs Anthropic: The Best 10-Year Bet 01:32:44 — Elon, Jensen & Why You Should Never Retire ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3j2KMcZTtgTNBKwtZBMHvl?si=85bc9196860e4466 Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twenty-minute-vc-20vc-venture-capital-startup/id958230465 Follow Harry Stebbings on X: https://twitter.com/HarryStebbings Follow Aravind Srinivas on X: https://twitter.com/AravSrinivas Follow 20VC on Instagram: https://www.instagram
Summary
Generated by claude-sonnet-4-5At-a-Glance
- Verdict: Watch fully
- Core thesis: Aravind argues that AI's future belongs to orchestrators who maximize token value per watt per user across models, tools, and devices—not to model builders or ad-driven chat platforms. Power infrastructure and continuous local/server orchestration will determine who captures the most economic value, and Perplexity aims to be the 'orchestra conductor' in that world.
- Why it matters: Reframes the entire AI competitive landscape: model commoditization is inevitable, the answer-engine era is already over, and the real frontier is autonomous agents running 24/7 with hybrid on-device/server inference. Perplexity has tripled revenue since Q1 2025 and is positioning itself as the orchestrator layer, not a search replacement. Aravind also makes controversial claims—export controls helped China, Micron could outvalue Meta, advertising will not work in chat, and the physical infrastructure bottleneck (power, permits, fabs) will persist for years. These are not mainstream takes.
- Best use: Ken should watch this to pressure-test his mental models on AI infra value, model defensibility, and where economic power will accumulate. Aravind's view on token value, orchestration, and the death of search-advertising in chat is contrarian and actionable for portfolio construction, especially around infra vs. apps, agent vs. consumer products, and OpenAI/Anthropic IPO bets.
Executive Summary
Aravind Srinivas believes the defining metric in AI is token value per watt per user—whoever generates the most valuable output tokens with the least power expended wins. He argues that Perplexity is not a search company but an agent orchestrator that routes tasks across models (GPT, Claude, local models), tools, files, and devices to maximize user value. The answer-engine era already forced Google to redesign its homepage (Google AI mode now mirrors Perplexity's design), but the real frontier has moved on: deep research, multi-agent workflows, and autonomous 24/7 cron jobs that run on hybrid server-local compute. Perplexity's revenue has more than tripled since January 2025, driven by power users spending upwards of $10,000/month on agent loops, not casual search queries.
On the AI infrastructure layer, Aravind predicts that power will remain the primary bottleneck for the next three years. He sees public resistance to data centers intensifying (40% of planned US data centers are blocked by permits or protests), which will push buildouts to other countries or even space (Elon's plan). He provocatively argues that Micron could become more valuable than Meta in 6–12 months because memory (HBM) is the current supply bottleneck, and that export controls helped China by forcing vertical integration (Huawei stack, custom chips, innovative KV caching) that could leapfrog US architectures. He assigns a 20–30% chance of a DeepSeek-style efficiency breakthrough that makes current data center investments obsolete.
Aravind is bearish on advertising in chat interfaces, stating that subjective, vibes-based decisions (travel, fashion, furniture) will remain ad-driven while objective, transactional queries will be handled by agents. He does not believe OpenAI or Perplexity will replicate Google's $250B ad business in chat, and he thinks Meta's capex increase makes sense only if Meta launches subscription agents, a cloud offering, or new non-ad revenue streams. He sees the orchestration layer—companies that benefit from progress at any part of the stack (models, chips, devices)—as the most defensible long-term position, and Perplexity explicitly positions itself there.
On the model layer, Aravind argues that frontier models must remain frontier or they have no business. If Anthropic or OpenAI stop shipping new capabilities for six months, they will lose relevance. He expects enterprises to fine-tune open models to reduce token costs, and Perplexity is already training its own post-trained models to replace frontier tokens for existing features while reserving frontier models for new capabilities. He believes the model is no longer the product—the harness (agent orchestration, connectors, task routing) is what converts intrinsic model intelligence into valuable output. He sees SpaceX as the best 10-year hold among the upcoming IPOs (over Anthropic and OpenAI) because it is end-of-one in space infrastructure, whereas AI model labs are horizontally competitive.
Key Takeaways
- Claim: The single most important metric in AI is token value per watt per user. Whoever maximizes this metric—by orchestrating across models, devices, and local/server compute—will capture the most long-term economic value. | Evidence: Aravind describes the orchestration problem: accuracy, intelligence, privacy, and cost are all competing. Local models save power and preserve privacy but may lack frontier intelligence; server models are powerful but expensive. The solution is a 'master orchestrator router' that uses local models when possible, frontier models when necessary, and grounds everything in valuable personal context. Perplexity positions itself as the 'orchestra conductor'—the musicians are sub-agents, the instruments are models and tools, and the symphony is the work delivered to the user. | Caveat: Aravind admits there is a 20–30% chance of a DeepSeek-style breakthrough (new architecture, vastly more efficient, runs locally) that could obsolete current centralized inference investments. He also acknowledges that orchestration layer gross margins depend on open-source model quality remaining competitive with frontier models. | Implication: Ken should evaluate companies not on model ownership but on their ability to route intelligently across the AI stack. Vertical integrators like Apple (device + local inference + cloud routing) and Perplexity (multi-model orchestration + connectors + agent harness) could capture more value than pure model builders if commoditization accelerates. Power efficiency and hybrid inference will be key differentiators. | Timestamp: Multiple throughout, especially ~12:00–18:00 and ~1:15:00–1:22:00
- Claim: Perplexity changed Google more than any product manager at Google has ever done. Google AI mode now looks exactly like Perplexity: inline citations, suggested follow-ups, font, interface—everything. But the quality is still not as good. | Evidence: Aravind states that nobody at Google wanted to ship an answer engine because it threatened their $250B advertising business. Perplexity's launch and product-market fit forced Google to redesign its homepage for the first time in decades. He regularly tests all competitor products and finds Google AI mode still inferior in quality. Perplexity's differentiation has now moved to deep research, agents, and multi-day autonomous workflows—products Google does not yet have. | Caveat: Aravind knew by end of 2024 that Google would copy Perplexity's interface. He is 'surprised' the quality is still not there, but he expected the copy. He does not see this as a threat because Perplexity's frontier has already shifted to agents and orchestration, not static Q&A. | Implication: Ken should recognize that UI/UX innovation can force even incumbents with massive moats to change, but defensibility comes from moving faster than they can copy. Perplexity's real moat is not the answer engine—it is the orchestration harness, multi-agent deep research, and hybrid inference strategy that Google has not yet replicated. For AI product bets, Ken should look for companies iterating on new interaction models (agents, continuous workflows) rather than refining chat. | Timestamp: ~6:30–8:00
- Claim: The frontier in AI is no longer answering questions—it is autonomous agents doing work for you, especially repetitive cron jobs running 24/7. This is where subscription revenue growth is coming from, not casual search. | Evidence: Aravind describes Perplexity users spending $10,000/month on agent loops that run continuously—monitoring, triaging emails, root-cause analysis on latency spikes, triggering workflows based on events. Perplexity's revenue has more than tripled since January 2025, driven by deep research and agent subscriptions (Pro/Max), not answer-engine queries. He distinguishes one-off tasks (deep research on a topic) from continuous agents (cron jobs, always-on monitoring, multi-step workflows). The latter is the real product-market fit for paid AI. | Caveat: Aravind admits that no one will be able to afford a 24/7 frontier AI running on the server unless costs come down dramatically. This is why he bets on hybrid orchestration—local models + local chips + server-side frontier only when necessary. If local inference does not improve fast enough, continuous agents remain too expensive for most users. | Implication: Ken should prioritize companies building agent harnesses, orchestration layers, and hybrid inference over companies selling chat completions. The real TAM is not 100M casual users—it is power users running $10K+/month agent workflows. For portfolio, look at developer tools (Cursor, Codex-like), research platforms, and companies enabling local+cloud hybrid agents. Also watch for local inference chip progress (Apple Silicon, Qualcomm, AMD) as a key unlock. | Timestamp: ~8:00–10:30, ~32:00–35:00, ~48:00–52:00
- Claim: Money in AI is in the frontier outcome, not the frontier model. The model is no longer the product—the harness (orchestration, tools, connectors, grounding) is the product. Even if you are a model builder, you have no business if you are just reselling tokens. | Evidence: Aravind cites Greg Brockman's tweet: 'The model is no longer the product.' He explains that Codex, Perplexity Computer, and Claude Code are not just models—they are orchestration systems: model + agent harness + tools/connectors + grounding in context. Without the harness, intrinsic model intelligence does not convert into valuable output. OpenAI and Anthropic will compete on models, but Perplexity orchestrates across both (and open models), giving them flexibility and pricing power. Enterprises like Salesforce spent $300M on Anthropic tokens (3.8% of developer salaries), but Aravind expects that spend to shift as enterprises fine-tune open models and reduce reliance on frontier tokens for commodity tasks. | Caveat: Aravind admits that if open-source models stop being good (gap widens to 12–18 months behind frontier), inference platforms like Fireworks, Nebius, and Base10 will lose their business model and become pure capacity renters. His thesis depends on open-source models remaining within 6–12 months of frontier quality. | Implication: Ken should discount pure model API businesses unless they own the orchestration layer or have unique serving infrastructure. Companies that combine models with harnesses, tools, and workflows (like Cursor, Perplexity, Harvey, Glean) are more defensible than resellers of OpenAI/Anthropic tokens. For OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs, Ken should evaluate whether their value proposition remains differentiated if open models catch up—or if they become commoditized inference providers. | Timestamp: ~10:30–13:00, ~19:00–21:00
- Claim: Power is the bottleneck to AI and will remain so for at least three years. Data centers, HBM, CPUs, and storage are all constrained by power supply, permits, and public resistance. Micron could become more valuable than Meta because memory is the current supply bottleneck. | Evidence: Aravind explains that 40 out of 100 planned US data centers are not being built due to public resistance (permits, perceived environmental impact, fear of job losses, grid cost increases). Power securing, cooling, and physical infrastructure have long lead times. He cites that Blackwell-generation models (trained on hundreds of thousands of Blackwells) will be far more powerful than current models, and Vera Ruben (next-gen) will be even more so. Memory (HBM) prices have increased 5x in COGS terms, making Micron a key bottleneck supplier. He argues that whoever supplies memory, SSDs, CPU compute (for agent loops), and power will command pricing power—making infra companies more valuable than software companies in some cases. | Caveat: Aravind assigns a 20–30% chance to a DeepSeek-style breakthrough that makes current data center architectures obsolete. He also notes that China can build data centers faster (no permit issues, cheap power, fast labor) and may leapfrog US capacity if export controls force vertical innovation. If local inference dramatically improves, server-side data center demand could plateau. | Implication: Ken should maintain conviction in AI infra bets (Micron, AMD, data center buildout plays like CoreWeave/Nebius) but hedge with exposure to local inference innovation (Qualcomm, Apple, on-device AI). Power bottlenecks create pricing power for suppliers, but Ken should also watch for regulatory/political headwinds (NIMBY, grid cost backlash) that slow US buildouts and shift capacity to other countries or space. For public markets, infra may trade at higher multiples than software if supply constraints persist. | Timestamp: ~40:00–46:00, ~56:00–1:00:00
- Claim: Export controls helped China by forcing vertical integration and architectural innovation. China is now building a completely different AI stack (Huawei chips, memory-efficient KV caching, custom training algorithms) that could leapfrog US systems in efficiency. | Evidence: Aravind explains that because DeepSeek cannot use NVIDIA GPUs, HBM, or 3D NANDs, they innovated on KV cache to run on SSDs, made attention layers more efficient, reduced interconnect dependencies, and vertically integrated across hardware/software. They are building fabs, data centers, and chips tailored to their architecture. He argues that short-term export controls helped the US (12-month gap between open-source and frontier models exists only because of controls), but long-term they forced China to become far more competent at the physical layer (fabs, robots, chips, power, data centers). China has no permit issues, cheap power, and fast labor—giving them advantages in physical AI. | Caveat: This is a contrarian take. Aravind admits export controls created a 12-month buffer for US labs, and companies like Anthropic lobbied hard for them. But he sees the risk that vertical integration in China could produce a more efficient, locally-runnable architecture that makes US server-heavy systems look overbuilt. | Implication: Ken should monitor Chinese AI model releases (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Tencent) for architectural efficiency and local inference breakthroughs. If China ships models that run well on consumer hardware without HBM or frontier GPUs, that would validate Aravind's thesis and pressure US infra valuations. For portfolio, consider hedging NVIDIA/data center exposure with bets on algorithmic efficiency, local inference, and companies that do not depend on centralized compute (Apple, Qualcomm, edge AI). | Timestamp: ~1:08:00–1:12:00
- Claim: Advertising will not work in chat interfaces. Subjective, vibes-based decisions (travel, fashion, furniture) will remain ad-driven on traditional platforms. Objective, transactional queries will be handled by agents. OpenAI and Perplexity will not replicate Google's $250B ad business. | Evidence: Aravind walks through Google's top advertisers: Amazon, Booking.com, Expedia. He asks: 'How do you book hotels or flights today? Google or ChatGPT?' Answer: Google, because users want discovery and exploration, not a single answer. He argues that subjective decision-making (fashion, furniture aesthetics, hotel vibes) does not fit the chat paradigm—users want to browse, not receive objective recommendations. He cites that Meta and Google dominate ads because their platforms match subjective, exploratory user behavior. Chat interfaces kill trust if they inject sponsored recommendations, and users do not naturally behave in chat the way they do on visual/discovery platforms. | Caveat: Aravind admits WeChat in China has ads in messaging apps, but attributes that to lack of alternatives and a different user behavior ecosystem. He is 'happy to be proven wrong' but remains bearish on chat ads in the US. | Implication: Ken should discount revenue projections for OpenAI or Perplexity that assume Google-scale advertising. The real monetization for chat/agent platforms is subscriptions (Pro/Max/Enterprise) and usage-based pricing for agents, not ads. For ad-driven businesses (Meta, Google), Ken should evaluate how well they adapt to agent-mediated commerce (agents booking travel, agents shopping) versus traditional search/discovery ads. If agents disrupt objective-query ads (SEM for software, B2B SaaS), Meta and Google display/discovery ads may hold up better. | Timestamp: ~13:00–16:00
- Claim: The best 10-year hold among upcoming IPOs is SpaceX, not Anthropic or OpenAI. SpaceX is end-of-one in space infrastructure; AI model labs are horizontally competitive and must stay frontier or die. | Evidence: Aravind explains that Anthropic and OpenAI can claim to do what each other does, but SpaceX is the only company building space connectivity, reusable rockets, Starlink, and compute in space. He highlights Starlink's consumer experience (watching podcasts on flights) and long-term bets (Mars colony, space compute). He says that if Anthropic or OpenAI stop shipping new capabilities for six months, they become irrelevant—'no one can relax, no one is comfortable.' Frontier model labs must continuously innovate or lose to commoditization. SpaceX's moat is physical infrastructure and regulatory/technical barriers, not software that can be replicated. | Caveat: Aravind does not dismiss Anthropic or OpenAI—he just sees them as less differentiated long-term. He believes model labs will remain relevant only if they stay at the frontier, and the uncomfortable truth is that even a 12-month gap can kill a frontier lab. | Implication: Ken should weigh SpaceX's physical moat and vertical integration higher than AI model labs' software moats for long-term holds. For Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs, Ken should model scenarios where open-source models close the gap (12-month lead shrinks to 6 months or less) and evaluate whether their orchestration layers, enterprise adoption, or API ecosystems provide defensibility beyond the model itself. Perplexity's strategy (orchestrate across models, benefit from all progress) may be more durable than owning a single model stack. | Timestamp: ~1:18:00–1:20:00
Detailed Brief
Perplexity's Business Model and Growth: From Answer Engine to Agent Orchestrator
- Claims: Perplexity is no longer just an answer engine; it is an agent orchestrator that routes across models, tools, files, and devices to maximize token value per watt per user.; Revenue has more than tripled since January 2025, driven by deep research and agent subscriptions (Pro/Max), not casual search queries.; Power users are spending $10,000+/month on continuous agent loops (cron jobs, monitoring, multi-step workflows), and one user example is an Uber driver who built passive-income web apps using Perplexity's AI tools.; Perplexity has 45M users, 1B+ searches/month, and is built by 400 people. Team size may double to 800–1000 in two years, but Aravind emphasizes efficiency: 'With 400 people, you can build a $20B company.'
- Evidence: Aravind describes the 'orchestra conductor' positioning: sub-agents are musicians, models/tools/connectors are instruments, the work is the symphony, and Perplexity is the conductor.; Specific user behavior: agents running root-cause analysis on latency spikes, email triage, event-triggered workflows, multi-agent hierarchies that employees set up internally.; Examples of power-user spend: $10K/month on agent loops, internal employee workflows that consume tokens far beyond average, and an Uber driver building web apps with AI that now generates more passive income than driving.; Aravind confirms revenue is 'far more' than $500M ARR (implied run rate well above $500M, possibly approaching $1B ARR based on 'more than tripled since January 2025').
- Caveats: Aravind admits 24/7 frontier AI on the server is unaffordable at current pricing, which is why hybrid local+server orchestration is critical. If local inference does not improve, continuous agents remain niche.; Perplexity's orchestration thesis depends on open-source models remaining competitive (within 6–12 months of frontier). If the gap widens to 18+ months, their multi-model routing loses value.; User growth and revenue growth are strong, but Aravind does not disclose gross margins, burn rate, or path to profitability. He says the company is training its own models to bring down costs and increase margins.
- Implications: Ken should view Perplexity as a hybrid infra+application play, not a pure consumer search competitor. The real TAM is agent-driven workflows, not replacing Google search.; For portfolio construction, companies with orchestration layers (multi-model routing, hybrid inference, agent harnesses) may be more defensible than single-model API businesses.; Perplexity's IPO timeline is 2028 or sooner. Ken should track revenue growth, gross margin improvement (from owned models), and enterprise adoption (Perplexity Computer) as key IPO readiness signals.
AI Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Power, Memory, and Public Resistance
- Claims: Power is the single biggest bottleneck to AI for the next three years, not GPU supply. Data centers require power, cooling, permits, and land—all of which have long lead times and public resistance.; 40 out of 100 planned US data centers are not being built due to NIMBY resistance, perceived environmental concerns, and fear of job losses and wealth inequality.; Memory (HBM) is the current supply constraint, with prices up 5x in COGS. Micron could become more valuable than Meta in 6–12 months because it supplies the bottleneck.; CPUs are back in demand because agent loops run on CPUs, not GPUs. Intel and AMD are benefiting. Agents use CPUs more than humans do.
- Evidence: Aravind explains the data center buildout process: secure land, buy turbines or lease power, get permits, install cooling, buy chips from Dell/Super Micro, test systems, manage TCO (total cost of operations). All of this has lead times far longer than software iteration cycles.; He cites that Blackwell-generation models are already 'scary' (e.g., Mitos), and Vera Ruben (next-gen) will be even more powerful. But the physical buildout bottlenecks how fast frontier models can be trained and deployed.; Aravind explains that agent harnesses (e.g., Claude generates a script, downloads 500 files, munges data, generates a plot, hosts a website) run on CPUs, not GPUs. This is driving enterprise CPU demand.; On public resistance: Aravind says the sentiment is 'a pretty bad sentiment about AI' channeled through multiple narratives (job losses, wealth inequality, environment, grid cost increases, RAM price increases). He thinks 40% of data centers are blocked by this resistance.
- Caveats: Aravind assigns a 20–30% chance to a DeepSeek-style efficiency breakthrough that makes current data center architectures obsolete. If a new model architecture runs efficiently on local devices or consumer-grade chips, centralized data center investments could become stranded assets.; China has advantages in physical AI (no permit issues, cheap power, fast labor, vertical integration). If US resistance continues, China could out-build the US in data centers and fabs.; Aravind admits that infra companies (CoreWeave, Nebius, Crusoe) must build software on top (orchestration, inference APIs, hosted models) to avoid being pure capacity renters with low margins. He is uncertain which specific infra players will win.
- Implications: Ken should maintain conviction in AI infra (Micron, AMD, data center plays) but hedge with local inference (Qualcomm, Apple, on-device AI).; Power bottlenecks create pricing power for suppliers, but also regulatory/political risk. Ken should watch for policy shifts (data center permits, power subsidies, environmental regulation) that could accelerate or decelerate buildouts.; For private infra companies (CoreWeave, Nebius, Crusoe), Ken should evaluate their software moat (hosted inference, orchestration APIs) not just GPU capacity. Pure capacity renters will not reach $100B+ valuations.
Model Layer Dynamics: Commoditization, Orchestration, and Fine-Tuning
- Claims: The model is no longer the product. The harness (orchestration, tools, connectors, grounding) is the product. Even model builders have no business if they are just reselling tokens.; Frontier model labs (OpenAI, Anthropic) will only remain relevant if they stay at the frontier. If they stop shipping new capabilities for six months, they become irrelevant.; Enterprises will fine-tune open models to reduce frontier token costs. Perplexity is already training its own models (post-training on open-source) to replace frontier tokens for existing features, reserving frontier models for new capabilities.; The gap between open-source and frontier models exists only because of export controls. If open-source catches up to within 6 months, inference platforms (Fireworks, Nebius) lose their business model.
- Evidence: Aravind cites Greg Brockman's tweet: 'The model is no longer the product.' He explains that Codex, Perplexity Computer, and Claude Code are orchestration systems, not just models. The agent harness converts intrinsic model intelligence into valuable output.; He describes Perplexity's differentiation: orchestrating across multiple models (GPT, Claude, open models) and choosing the right model for each sub-task, which OpenAI and Anthropic cannot do because they compete with each other.; Aravind says Perplexity's revenue has grown because Anthropic's models improved (so Perplexity's product improved), and their burn decreased because OpenAI competed on price. 'Every time any part of the AI stack improves, our product improves.'; He predicts that enterprises (like Salesforce, which spent $300M on Anthropic tokens) will fine-tune open models to bring down costs from 3.8% of developer salaries to lower, sustainable levels.
- Caveats: Aravind's orchestration thesis depends on open-source models staying competitive. If the gap widens to 12–18 months (vs. current 6–12 months), the orchestration value proposition weakens.; He admits that if there is a DeepSeek-style breakthrough (new architecture, local inference, vastly more efficient), current model providers and data centers could be disrupted.; Frontier labs have massive incentive to stay differentiated, and Aravind acknowledges they are 'totally capable, totally competent teams.' The race is not over.
- Implications: Ken should discount pure model API businesses unless they own orchestration, enterprise workflows, or unique serving infrastructure. Companies like Cursor, Harvey, Glean (application + harness) are more defensible than resellers of OpenAI/Anthropic tokens.; For OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs, Ken should model scenarios where their value proposition is commoditized by open models within 12–18 months. What is their moat beyond the model? API ecosystems? Enterprise lock-in? Custom chips (like OpenAI's rumored chip)?; Perplexity's strategy (orchestrate across models, benefit from all progress, train own models for cost efficiency) may be more durable than owning a single model stack. Ken should evaluate whether other companies can replicate this or if Perplexity has first-mover advantage in orchestration.
Advertising, Monetization, and the Future of Search
- Claims: Advertising will not work in chat interfaces. Subjective, vibes-based decisions (travel, fashion, furniture) will remain ad-driven on Google/Meta. Objective, transactional queries will be handled by agents.; OpenAI and Perplexity will not replicate Google's $250B ad business. The real monetization is subscriptions (Pro/Max/Enterprise) and usage-based pricing for agents.; Google's top advertisers (Amazon, Booking.com, Expedia) spend billions because users want discovery and exploration, not a single answer. Chat interfaces do not match that behavior.; Injecting sponsored recommendations in chat kills user trust. Meta tried ads in messaging/email and it never worked in the US (only in China/WeChat due to lack of alternatives).
- Evidence: Aravind walks through Booking.com spending $16B+ on Google ads. He asks: 'Do you book hotels on ChatGPT or Google?' Answer: Google, because users want to explore options, not receive a single recommendation.; He explains that fashion, furniture, and travel are subjective decisions where users want to browse (Instagram, Google Images). Objective decisions (best protein shake, fastest flight) will be agent-driven, but those are transactional, not ad-driven.; He cites that Perplexity is known for accurate answers, and injecting ads ('by the way, these are good protein shakes you can check out') would corrupt user trust.; He admits that advertising has been tried in messaging apps (Meta, email) and never worked in the US. WeChat is the exception because China's economy and user behavior are gamified around it.
- Caveats: Aravind is 'happy to be proven wrong' and acknowledges this is a bearish take. He does not rule out that someone could crack chat ads, but he remains skeptical.; China/WeChat prove that ads in messaging can work, but Aravind attributes that to lack of alternatives and different user behavior, not a replicable model in the US.
- Implications: Ken should discount revenue models for OpenAI, Perplexity, or other chat platforms that assume Google-scale advertising. The real TAM is subscriptions and enterprise usage-based pricing.; For Google and Meta, Ken should evaluate how well they adapt to agent-mediated commerce. If agents book travel, shop for products, and handle transactional queries, SEM revenue (Google's biggest ad category) could erode. But subjective/discovery ads (Instagram, YouTube, Google Images) may hold up.; For portfolio, prioritize companies with subscription models (Perplexity, Cursor, Harvey) over ad-driven chat platforms. Also watch for agent-commerce platforms (agents booking on behalf of users) that could disrupt traditional SEM.
China, Export Controls, and Geopolitical AI Dynamics
- Claims: Export controls helped China by forcing vertical integration and architectural innovation. China is now building a completely different AI stack (Huawei chips, memory-efficient KV caching, custom training algorithms) that could leapfrog US systems in efficiency.; The 12-month gap between open-source and frontier models exists only because of export controls. Short-term they helped the US, but long-term they made China far more competent at the physical layer (fabs, robots, chips, data centers).; China has advantages in physical AI: no permit issues, cheap power, fast labor, and vertical integration. If the US continues NIMBY resistance to data centers, China could out-build the US.; There is a 20–30% chance of a DeepSeek-style efficiency breakthrough that makes current US data center architectures obsolete.
- Evidence: Aravind explains that DeepSeek cannot use NVIDIA GPUs, HBM, or 3D NANDs, so they innovated on KV cache (small enough to run on SSDs), attention layers, and training algorithms that reduce interconnect dependencies. Their entire stack is vertically integrated to Huawei hardware.; He says Anthropic lobbied hard for export controls, and they definitely helped create a 12-month buffer. But the long-term consequence is that China is now building fabs, data centers, and chips tailored to their architecture—making them a 'far more potent competitor.'; Aravind cites that China can build data centers 'a lot, lot faster' because power is not a problem, permits are not a problem, labor is not a problem. He contrasts this with the US, where 40% of data centers are blocked by public resistance.; He assigns a 20–30% chance to a breakthrough where a vastly more efficient model runs on consumer devices (MacBooks, Windows PCs) without HBM or frontier GPUs, which would 'freak out' US infra investors.
- Caveats: Aravind admits export controls created a 12-month gap and helped US labs in the short term. He is not arguing they were wrong, just that the long-term effects may backfire.; He does not provide a timeline for when China's vertical integration might produce a superior architecture. This is a speculative risk, not a near-term certainty.; He also acknowledges that US labs (Anthropic, OpenAI) are 'totally capable, totally competent' and could innovate to stay ahead.
- Implications: Ken should monitor Chinese AI model releases for efficiency breakthroughs. If China ships models that run well on consumer hardware without HBM or frontier GPUs, that validates Aravind's thesis and pressures US infra valuations.; For portfolio, hedge NVIDIA/data center exposure with bets on algorithmic efficiency, local inference, and companies that do not depend on centralized compute (Apple, Qualcomm, edge AI).; Geopolitical risk: if China out-builds the US in data centers and fabs, US AI dominance could erode. Ken should track policy responses (US subsidies for fabs, power infrastructure, regulatory streamlining) as signals.
IPO Landscape and Valuation Frameworks
- Claims: Aravind would hold SpaceX over Anthropic or OpenAI for 10 years because SpaceX is end-of-one in space infrastructure, while AI model labs are horizontally competitive and must stay frontier or die.; OpenAI is not financially ready for an IPO (balance sheet issues), though it is still perceived as a dominant consumer product. Anthropic is valued at $1–1.5T (similar to Meta) and was built in six years vs. Meta's 20 years.; There is enough money to fund three large AI IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI), but some reallocation will occur. Vanguard/BlackRock may take 30–40B from Microsoft/Salesforce holdings and put it into Anthropic.; Perplexity may IPO in 2028 or sooner. Revenue growth matters more than profitability today, but the company is training its own models to bring down costs and increase margins.
- Evidence: Aravind explains that Anthropic and OpenAI can claim to do what each other does, but SpaceX is the only company building reusable rockets, Starlink, and space compute. He highlights Starlink's consumer experience (watching podcasts on flights) and long-term bets (Mars colony, compute in space).; He says Anthropic is worth $1–1.5T and was built in six years, while Meta took 20 years. 'The price is so big' that no one can relax, and anyone who stops innovating can lose tomorrow.; Aravind confirms Perplexity's revenue is 'far more' than $500M ARR and growing fast. He says the company will IPO when revenue growth justifies it, likely 2028 or sooner if growth continues.; On public market dynamics: he argues that enterprise SaaS companies (Salesforce, Microsoft) will 'weather the storm' by buying the next thing (Salesforce bought Slack, IBM bought Red Hat/HashiCorp/Confluent). Companies that just sell the same software will not survive.
- Caveats: Aravind admits OpenAI's balance sheet is not ready for IPO, but he separates that from its product dominance. He does not disclose specific financial metrics for OpenAI or Anthropic.; He acknowledges that if Anthropic or OpenAI stop shipping new capabilities for six months, they become irrelevant. Frontier labs must continuously innovate or die.; Perplexity's IPO timeline is speculative ('2028 or sooner'). Ken should track revenue growth, gross margin improvement, and enterprise adoption as readiness signals.
- Implications: Ken should weigh SpaceX's physical moat and vertical integration higher than AI model labs' software moats for long-term holds. For Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs, model scenarios where open-source closes the gap and evaluate defensibility beyond the model.; For public markets, Aravind's thesis is that infra companies may trade at higher multiples than software companies if supply constraints persist. Ken should evaluate whether this is priced in or if there is alpha in infra plays (Micron, AMD, data center operators).; For Perplexity, Ken should view it as a hybrid infra+application play with strong revenue growth but unclear path to profitability. Track gross margin improvement from owned models and enterprise adoption as key IPO signals.
Notable Concepts & Terms
- Token value per watt per user: Aravind's proposed single most important metric in AI: whoever generates the most valuable output tokens with the least power expended per user captures the most economic value and pricing power. This reframes competition around efficiency (orchestration, hybrid inference, local models) rather than raw compute scale.
- Agent harness / orchestration layer: The rules, connectors, sub-agents, and task-routing logic that convert a model's intrinsic intelligence into valuable output. Aravind argues the harness is the product, not the model itself. Perplexity positions itself as the 'orchestra conductor' routing across models, tools, files, and devices.
- Frontier outcome vs. frontier model: Aravind distinguishes 'frontier' as the best outcome users can achieve with AI (e.g., autonomous agents, deep research, code generation), not just the best model. Money is in the frontier outcome, and outcomes depend on orchestration, not just raw model capability.
- Hybrid / hygienic inference: Aravind's term for using local models + local compute when possible, and server-side frontier models only when necessary, to reduce costs and preserve privacy. He argues 24/7 agents are only affordable with hybrid inference.
- Cron jobs / continuous agents: Agents that run 24/7 on repetitive tasks (monitoring, triaging, event-triggered workflows) rather than one-off tasks. Aravind argues this is where power users spend $10K+/month and where subscription revenue growth is coming from.
- KV cache / attention layer innovations (DeepSeek example): DeepSeek innovated on key-value caching to run inference on SSDs instead of requiring high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and optimized attention layers to reduce interconnect dependencies. Aravind cites this as an example of how export controls forced China to vertically integrate and innovate at the architecture level.
- TCO (total cost of operations): For data centers: not just upfront capex (chips, land, turbines) but ongoing operational costs (power, cooling, permits, maintenance). Aravind argues infra companies must optimize TCO to compete, not just buy GPUs.
- Bottleneck pricing power: Aravind's thesis that whoever supplies the current bottleneck (power, HBM, CPUs, storage) commands pricing power and high valuations. He cites Micron (HBM) and AMD (CPUs for agent loops) as examples.
- Physical AI / vertical integration in China: Aravind argues that if AI becomes physical (fabs, robots, chips, data centers), China has advantages: no permits, cheap power, fast labor, vertical integration. Export controls forced China to build this competency, making them a 'far more potent competitor' long-term.
Operator Notes / Why Ken Should Care
- Ken should use this to pressure-test mental models on AI infra vs. apps. Aravind's core thesis—that orchestration layers (multi-model routing, hybrid inference, agent harnesses) will capture more value than single-model APIs—is contrarian and actionable for portfolio construction.
- For OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs, model scenarios where open-source catches up within 12 months and evaluate whether their moat is the model or the ecosystem (API lock-in, enterprise workflows, custom chips). Aravind is bearish on advertising in chat, so discount ad-based revenue models.
- Power bottlenecks and public resistance to data centers are real. 40% of planned US data centers are blocked. This creates pricing power for infra suppliers (Micron, AMD) but also regulatory/political risk. Track policy shifts (permits, subsidies) as signals.
- China risk: if DeepSeek-style efficiency breakthroughs ship models that run locally on consumer hardware, US data center investments could become stranded assets. Hedge NVIDIA/data center exposure with local inference (Apple, Qualcomm).
- Perplexity's revenue growth is strong (tripled since Q1 2025, 'far more' than $500M ARR), but gross margins and burn rate are unclear. They are training own models to reduce costs. Watch for enterprise adoption (Perplexity Computer) and IPO signals (revenue growth, margin improvement).
- For agent bets: prioritize companies building orchestration layers, multi-agent workflows, and hybrid inference. Power users spending $10K+/month on continuous agents is the real TAM, not 100M casual users.
- Aravind's boldest takes: Micron could outvalue Meta, export controls helped China, advertising won't work in chat, SpaceX is the best 10-year hold over OpenAI/Anthropic. These are contrarian enough to warrant deeper research and scenario planning.
Watch Map
- 0:00–6:00: Intro: Aravind's motivation (thrill of winning, not fear of failing), Perplexity's scale (45M users, 1B searches/month, 400 people, $20B valuation), and philosophy of attack vs. defense.
- 6:00–10:00: How Perplexity changed Google: Google AI mode now looks exactly like Perplexity (inline citations, follow-ups, font). Aravind argues Perplexity changed Google more than any PM at Google. But the frontier has moved to agents and deep research.
- 10:00–19:00: Money is in the frontier outcome, not the frontier model. The model is no longer the product—the harness (orchestration, tools, connectors) is. Greg Brockman's tweet. Codex, Perplexity Computer, Claude Code are orchestration systems. Token value per watt per user is the key metric.
- 19:00–27:00: Power users and agent loops: $10K+/month spend on continuous cron jobs, not one-off tasks. Examples: root-cause analysis, email triage, multi-agent hierarchies. Uber driver story. Perplexity's revenue tripled since Q1 2025, driven by deep research and agents, not search.
- 27:00–35:00: Advertising will not work in chat. Subjective decisions (travel, fashion, furniture) remain ad-driven on Google/Meta. Objective decisions (best protein shake) are agent-driven. OpenAI/Perplexity will not replicate Google's $250B ad business. Meta's capex only makes sense if they launch subscription agents or a cloud.
- 35:00–46:00: Infrastructure bottlenecks: power is the biggest problem, not GPUs. 40% of US data centers are blocked by public resistance (permits, NIMBY, environmental fears, job losses). Memory (HBM) prices up 5x. Micron could become more valuable than Meta because it supplies the bottleneck. CPUs are back in demand for agent loops (AMD, Intel benefiting).
- 46:00–56:00: Model layer dynamics: frontier labs must stay frontier or die. If Anthropic/OpenAI stop shipping for six months, they become irrelevant. Enterprises will fine-tune open models to reduce costs. Perplexity is training own models to replace frontier tokens for existing features. Gap between open-source and frontier exists only because of export controls.
- 56:00–1:08:00: Inference layer and routing: OpenRouter is not a model router—it is a reliable token supply provider (fallbacks, rate limits, multi-endpoint). There is value in that layer, but low gross margins. Nebius and CoreWeave must build software on top (orchestration, hosted inference APIs) to avoid being pure capacity renters.
- 1:08:00–1:18:00: China and export controls: export controls helped China by forcing vertical integration (Huawei chips, memory-efficient KV caching, custom training algorithms). Short-term they helped the US (12-month gap), but long-term they made China far more competent at physical AI. 20–30% chance of DeepSeek-style efficiency breakthrough that makes US data centers obsolete. China has advantages: no permits, cheap power, fast labor.
- 1:18:00–1:28:00: IPO landscape: SpaceX is the best 10-year hold over Anthropic/OpenAI because it is end-of-one in space infrastructure. Anthropic valued at $1–1.5T (built in six years vs. Meta's 20 years). There is enough money to fund three large IPOs, but some reallocation from enterprise SaaS (Salesforce, Microsoft) to Anthropic. Enterprise SaaS must buy the next thing to survive (IBM bought Red Hat, HashiCorp, Confluent).
- 1:28:00–1:38:00: 24/7 agents and orchestration problem: no one can afford 24/7 frontier AI on the server unless costs come down. Solution is hybrid inference (local models + local chips + server-side frontier only when necessary). Continuously learning local model + agent harness + ecosystem of devices = your own intelligence. Perplexity positions itself as the orchestrator.
- 1:38:00–1:48:00: Wealth inequality, agency, and positivity: Aravind pushes back on doom-and-gloom messaging. He argues that AI enables anyone to build a billion-dollar company with a small team (40 people). Uber driver example. He criticizes frontier labs for fear-mongering about job losses while also complaining about data center resistance. Positive messaging is essential.
- 1:48:00–end: Quick-fire round: moving fast is the moat, not identifying a moat. Perplexity can be more AI-pilled internally. If given unlimited money, Aravind would build data centers (physical infrastructure is the new industrial revolution). SpaceX is the best 10-year hold. Stay curious. Final advice: work forever, be like Jensen and Elon.
Source/Metadata
- Title: How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China & Power is the Bottleneck to AI | Perplexity CEO
- Transcript words: 16790
- Duration seconds: 5716
- Timestamp note: Timestamps are estimates based on topic flow and key quotes. Transcript does not include explicit chapter markers or speaker timestamps. Used contextual cues to map segments.
Transcript
I have nothing to lose. I came from nothing. I never even imagined myself to be doing all this. A $20 billion company. 45 million users. Over a billion searches a month. Built in three years by 400 people. These numbers don't motivate me. It's hard to get motivated by wealth. You want to get motivated by impact. This is Perplexity with co-founder and CEO, Aravind Srinivas. No one's ever in a comfortable position. No one can relax. They forced Google to redesign their homepage. Then bid $34 billion to buy Chrome. More than their own valuation. Perplexity changed Google.com more than any product manager Google has ever done. Now you look at AI mode, it looks exactly like Perplexity. He doesn't do defense. He doesn't do comfortable. His words: Attack, attack, attack. [SPEAKER_02] That's my motto. Go all in and try your best. Be on the offense all the time. [SPEAKER_01] You know what I hate with podcasts? When people sit on the fence. Aravind has really strong opinions in the show today. He says that Mike Frum will be more valuable than Matter. He says that the resistance to data centers will continue and get worse. He says the biggest problem today is a lack of power. He claims that Perplexity has changed Google more than any Google PM. You want opinions? This is the show for you. Ready to go? Aravind, dude, I am so excited that we get to do this. We've done one remote and then we did one at Founders Forum last year. So thank you so much for joining me in person. [SPEAKER_02] Thanks a lot, Harry. Dude, it's a weird start, but just roll with me on it. I ask this of the best founders that I meet. Are you motivated more by the fear of failing or by the thrill of winning? [SPEAKER_02] Thrill of winning. [SPEAKER_01] Why? Because I have nothing to lose. I came from nothing. I never even imagined myself to be doing all this. So my life has already been extraordinary beyond any level of imagination. I was just in India doing my undergrad and training neural nets with graphics cards that people in the labs were using for playing video games. It was all for fun. And my path led me all the way here. It was never for my mom. Just getting a job was success because we were financially lower middle class in India, which is not even lower middle class in the UK or the US. And so from there, all we wanted to do was get a job at Google. Being an engineer at Google was considered a win. And so I'm already doing remarkably well compared to that ambition we had as a family. So there's really nothing for me to lose. That's why anytime I try to act like I'm trying to avoid failure and being on the defense, I remind myself that's the stupidest thing to do. It's better to go all in and try your best, be on the offense all the time, attack, attack, attack. [SPEAKER_01] When you review then, what are you not being aggressive enough on today? Maybe in the early days, we'd be very loud on social media talking about Perplexity and Google. And I used to do that myself a lot. And some people don't like me for having done that. Today, I'm a lot more measured in how I talk about our products, our competitors, and stuff. [SPEAKER_02] But it's not a lack of aggression or anything. It's just that is boring. People already heard that enough from me. [SPEAKER_01] Do you regret being so bold in your messaging? No. [SPEAKER_01] So it's not a nuance and maturation of message. [SPEAKER_01] It's that stale and I need something new. Not just that. I don't think it's a relevant framing anymore. We worked on search. [SPEAKER_02] Perplexity started out as search. [SPEAKER_02] We built the first answer engine in the world that people know Perplexity even today. [SPEAKER_02] If you mention the name Perplexity, people will think, oh, that's an answer engine. [SPEAKER_02] We built a lot more things after that. We built agents, browser agents, deep research, computer. We built so many products after that, but we're still known for that first product. And the mark has already been made. We changed the roadmap of Google. You could argue that I or the company Perplexity changed google.com more than any product manager at Google has ever done. [SPEAKER_01] Make that argument for me. Well, nobody ever wanted to ship an answer engine at Google. Nobody. Nobody. Nobody wanted to tinker anything on the interface that made them $250 billion a year. And then now you look at AI mode. It looks exactly like Perplexity. There's not even any difference. [SPEAKER_02] It's the font, the citations, the specific building of inline text, inline hyperlinks, suggested follow-ups. The whole experience is literally looking like Perplexity, except it's still not as good. [SPEAKER_01] And so— [SPEAKER_01] Is that bad or good for you that they learn from you and adapt? It's both good and bad in the sense that you have to obviously—I knew this around the end of 2024, this was going to happen. So it never caught me by surprise at all. It was just a matter of time. I still am surprised that the quality is still not there because I regularly test every product out there. But I'm happy that honestly they changed Google to be what it should be. And I believe that the frontier is where the money is. The frontier in AI is not about answering questions anymore. [SPEAKER_02] It's about actually going and doing work for you. [SPEAKER_02] We still have the state of the art deep research in the world. And that's actually where people subscribe to pay for our Pro or Max products—not for getting answers in the traditional way. They're asking for sophisticated research reports. They're asking for agents that go and do things for you. And so we wouldn't have been able to do all that if we were sitting in 2024 thinking we have everything settled here. We're good and comfortable. And I believe that the frontier is where the money is. The frontier in AI is not about answering questions anymore. It's about actually going and doing work for you. We still have the state of the art deep research in the world. And that's actually where people subscribe to pay for our pro or max products is not for getting answers in the traditional way. They're asking for sophisticated research reports. They're asking for agents that go and do things for you. And so we wouldn't have been able to do all that if we were sitting in 2024 thinking we have everything settled here. We're good and comfortable. No, the answer engine was always a legion for the frontier products we build. You need something, right? Every company needs to have one successful product to build the next set of products. And in AI, nobody can sit comfortably thinking they have it all sorted out, including Anthropic. If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win in six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around. And so that's the uncomfortable fact about the whole field. Would you argue today, you just told me, if you don't mind me quoting you here, you just told me before we started that you think OpenAI isn't ready for an IPO. Would you have believed you would be in a position to say this two years ago when nobody wanted to deal with any product other than ChatGPT? So anyone, even in such a massive advantages position, can be put in a position where they're no longer the kings. They're fighting from behind, right? So that's the state of the field. It's less about perplexity or Anthropic or OpenAI not having modes or having modes. Can I push back on you there? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] I would stand by it two years ago, even when they were and they are still a dominant consumer product. But I would stand by it because I don't think they are financially ready. When you look at the balance sheet of that. [SPEAKER_02] Okay, maybe I'll decouple that. Do you see what I'm saying? I'll decouple that. [SPEAKER_02] But let's decouple that being financial readiness for an IPO versus perception of a dominant leader. Yeah. Do you perceive them as a dominant leader right now? Yes. In what? Consumer search. Well, except there's no money there, right? Because it's been commoditized. So it's always a lead. For example, why are they going all in on Codex? Because that's where the money is. And we're doing the same on computer. Anthropic's doing the same on Cloud Code. Google doesn't yet have a product in this category, but I'm sure they're going to come after that. Meta's trying to launch Hatch for $200 a month. You see what's happening, right? So nobody has- [SPEAKER_01] But there has to be more money than just Code, Codex, Cloud Code. It's not about code. [SPEAKER_02] That's the main thing. The money, at least in non-advertising. I'm not talking about advertising revenue. In non-advertising subscription or usage-based revenue, the money is in whatever is the frontier. And today the frontier is about going out there and doing things for you. [SPEAKER_01] And- [SPEAKER_01] Do you not think then that there will be a $100 to $200 billion advertising business for OpenAI? [SPEAKER_02] Yet to be proven. [SPEAKER_02] Let's work through the categories of advertising. Who's the number one advertiser on Google? Amazon. It's the number two. Booking.com. Number three or four, I think, is Expedia. Yeah. So how much do you think Booking.com spends on Google? $16 billion, something like that. Something, some crazy amount like that. And how do you book your hotels or flights today? Do you book it on ChatGPT or do you book it on Google? Google. Why is that? [SPEAKER_01] For me, I actually like discovery. [SPEAKER_01] I would like to see the options. [SPEAKER_02] Right? [SPEAKER_02] So the interface. [SPEAKER_02] The interface is less about conversations and more about exploration. So when the decision-making is more subjective and vibes-based, you don't need an objective answer engine. And you think about the other category of advertising, direct consumer products, fashion. Where is most of that advertising budget going into? It's going to meta, Instagram. Because you're just browsing. You're just doom scrolling or whatever you call it. Right? And so the chat interface doesn't capture that user intent, that user behavior right now, which is why it was never a great fit for advertising. And it also fundamentally corrupts the trust that people have when they go into a product and they want the accurate answer, which is what perplexity is known for. And then you're like, hey, by the way, you asked for the most highest, best protein shake. But by the way, these are good protein shakes you can check out. But it kind of hurts the trust that people have in your platform and your product. And so that's another reason why, if you think about it, meta or I think some other companies in the past have tried to put ads inside messaging apps and emails, and it's never really worked out. It works out in China, in WeChat, because there's no other way for them to fund the whole thing. So the whole economy and user behavior has been optimized around gamifying. It's not how things work in America. So I'm bearish on advertising to really take off in the chat interface. I'm happy to be proven wrong there, but I'm bearish on that. [SPEAKER_01] There are two areas that I want to unpack there. [SPEAKER_01] The first thing, just taking them chronologically and how you said them, money's in the frontier. [SPEAKER_01] The more I hear this, the more I question it, because I think that we dramatically overestimate how important frontier models are to do quite basic work. Yeah. So frontier doesn't mean a frontier model. Frontier just means whatever is the frontier outcome you can have right now with AI. Greg Brockman recently tweeted, the model is no longer the product, right? And it's funny because you know that as a leader of a frontier lab, he has all incentive to say the model is the product. The first thing, just taking them chronologically and how you said them, money's in the frontier. The more I hear this, the more I question it, because I think that we dramatically overestimate how important frontier models are to do quite basic work. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. [SPEAKER_02] So frontier doesn't mean a frontier model. Frontier just means whatever is the frontier outcome you can have right now with AI. Greg Brockman recently tweeted, the model is no longer the product, right? And it's funny because you know that as a leader of a frontier lab, he has all incentive to say the model is the product. And that's what Google people tell. I think one of the Google people keeps tweeting that model is the product. I forgot who. And so the reason Greg is right is because if you take Codex or Perplexity Computer or Plot Code, what is that? It's an orchestration system, right? It takes a model, pairs it with an agent harness. And what is an agent harness? Think of it, the simplest way of describing it is rules for how the agent loop should run. What are all the skills and sub-agents and connectors and tools it accesses? And without the harness, you don't necessarily capture and convert the intrinsic intelligence in the model into valuable output tokens. The output tokens, if you're literally just a reseller of model tokens, you have no business because the model will get commoditized. So even if you're a model builder, you don't have a business. As an infra layer, you have some business on serving those output tokens. But as an application layer or a model builder, you don't really have a business if you're just a reseller of tokens that come directly out of the model. You have a business if you know how to take the model, grounded in valuable context, orchestrate it with a really good agent harness, connect it to the right set of tools and connectors, whether it's personal connectors or business connectors, and provide the experience to people in one single unified system. And the way we differentiate ourselves at Perplexity is we don't just orchestrate across tools and files and connectors. We also orchestrate across models. That is the differentiation that Anthropic and OpenAI cannot claim because you wouldn't find GPT-5-5 inside the Claude code harness. You wouldn't find Claude Opus 4, 7, or 8 inside the Codex harness. These are competing with each other, right? Whereas you would find both these models inside Perplexity Computer. And that way we can increase the token value per watt per user. If you assume that whatever decides the price, the dollars is the power watts fundamentally. That's the thing that nobody else can subsidize other than the government. Whoever provides the most valuable output tokens with the least amount of power expended to produce them generates the greatest value to the end user and has the most pricing power, has the most value. And so that is the orchestration problem to solve. The one single most important metric in AI is token value for watt per user. [SPEAKER_01] What does it mean for the value of OpenAI and Anthropic if model is not the product and it becomes a utility, something you can switch into and switch out of? [SPEAKER_01] The interface. Everyone thinks we're all building the model layer or the race. We're not actually. I would even argue that building models is a way to stay at the frontier, but you have to own an interface in which valuable AI output tokens are generated. The most valuable tokens. It doesn't have to be the product. This is the single most important thing to unlearn for most founders. I had to do it too, which is to be successful in AI product layer, whether you're a model builder or not. It's not about building something that gets a billion users. That mentality has to completely shift. There are a few power users who are propelling this token economy right now. [SPEAKER_02] If you look at all these crazy stories of how there's this one engineer who got Amazon spend half a billion dollars a month because of some stupid way they set up an agent loop inside Cloud Code. [SPEAKER_02] Okay, maybe that's a mistake. Maybe that's a mistake, but there are real engineers in Meta and other companies spending 10 million a year per engineer on these coding tools. There are users in Perplexity Computer. There's one user, I think, who spends upwards of $10,000 a month or something like that. They're not wasting it. Their business runs using agent loops that are running inside these harnesses. And they use these products in sophisticated ways that I couldn't even conceive when we were building the product ourselves. Even internally, inside our own company, there are some people who set up this kind of multi-agent hierarchy and agent loops that looks like its own software architecture. And I often just ask these guys to come explain to the rest of the company, hey, what are you doing with these tools? You clearly are consuming it way over what we thought the average person in the company would do. And the single biggest differentiation between those who use agents a lot and those who don't is whether they run repetitive cron jobs. Whether you use AI as one-off tasks, you just delegate a task and then it gets done. That's using it for deep research or whatever, right? One single task versus AI continuously monitoring something for you. AI continuously triggering based on certain events and going and doing certain things, giving you alerts. You set up workflows that keep running all the time. Every time you get an inbound email, it triages, or every time there's a latency spike, it has to identify which part of the code base caused that. It has to go and do the root cause analysis and then identify the right engineer. All these things, this is where the frontier is. And so going back to my main point, these products are not going to be used by 100 million people. But they will generate revenue that's going to be higher than the advertising revenue of Google or Meta. It's going to happen. [SPEAKER_01] Completely understand what you say there. [SPEAKER_01] I do just want to focus in on a specific element there when you were saying the power users. [SPEAKER_01] Because I think one of the core numbers is actually Mark Benioff said they spent 300 million on Anthropic, which works out to be about three. It'll be interesting to know from him if that 300 million came from, what is the distribution across employees? [SPEAKER_01] So it works out to be, that was on developers within Salesforce. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] So it's about 3.8% of developer salaries. [SPEAKER_01] What percent of developer salaries do you think will be spent on tokens in 24 months' time? [SPEAKER_01] Because that fundamentally changes the value of OpenAI and Anthropic. [SPEAKER_01] I do just want to focus on a specific element there when you were saying the power users. [SPEAKER_01] Because I think one of the core numbers is actually Mark Benioff said they spent 300 million on Anthropic, which works out to be about three. It'll be interesting to know from him if that 300 million came from what is the distribution across employees? [SPEAKER_01] So it works out to be, that was on developers within Salesforce. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. So it's about 3.8% of developer salaries. What percent of developer salaries do you think will be spent on tokens in 24 months' time? Because that fundamentally changes the value of OpenAI and Anthropic. [SPEAKER_01] If it stays at 3.8%, they will not be $5 trillion companies. [SPEAKER_01] But if it's 100% like Brandon at McCool said it will be in a year, they'll be $10 trillion companies. [SPEAKER_02] Well, I think they can certainly be $10 trillion companies, whether it's going to be a full percent of the developer payroll today or not. [SPEAKER_02] Because there's a lot of non-developer work that will also be done with agents. [SPEAKER_02] And that's actually what we focus on for Perplexity Computer. [SPEAKER_02] We're not going after the developer market. [SPEAKER_02] We're going after anything that developers don't, non-developers do. [SPEAKER_02] Your finance department or your corp dev or your sales reps or your data science teams, your research analysts, I think that's actually an even bigger market. [SPEAKER_02] That's not even like clock code multiplied by 10. That's the size of that market. [SPEAKER_01] If I push you on developer salary spend, what percent of token spend as a portion of salary do you think we'll see in 24 months? It's hard to say. I think the costs are going to go down. That's why it's hard to say. [SPEAKER_01] You think the costs will go down? [SPEAKER_01] Because this is the challenge that we've had. [SPEAKER_01] We thought when we went from chat to agent that costs would go down and token costs would go down. [SPEAKER_01] They've gone up. Yeah, for now. [SPEAKER_01] Help me understand that and how that changes. I think in software, you kind of want to pay for the frontier. It's kind of like if you know some engineer is awesome. [SPEAKER_02] If you know you have the next Jeff Dean, would you rather hire that person and not hire five people who are medium engineers but not Jeff Dean level with the same amount of budget you have? [SPEAKER_02] Yes. [SPEAKER_02] Right. [SPEAKER_02] Let's say you had a million dollars. [SPEAKER_02] You could hire five people worth 200K or you could hire one Jeff Dean and pay them a million. [SPEAKER_02] What would you do? [SPEAKER_01] One Jeff Dean. Yeah. So I think you would pay for the frontier. But what stays frontier keeps changing. In 12 months from now, let's say, thought experiment, there is an open source model as good as Opus 4.8. And you still have to pay for inference. Nothing is truly free. But it's going to be, let's say, 10 times cheaper than Opus 4.8. [SPEAKER_02] And when you pair it with the right agent harness, and all the connectors, GitHub, everything, all your developer workflows work fine, why would you assume that the token spend is going to be still high? It's not going to be for the same things you're doing today. It's not going to be. But there might be a different set of things you might do with the frontier that you're not conceiving today. My prediction would be agents that are completely autonomous software engineers. Today, I think we're all using tools like Cloud Code or Codex to write code, but not as literal software engineers. [SPEAKER_01] There is a large swathe of people that is now bearish on your frontier models who are openizing your Anthropics because they're realizing that you can actually do a lot with open models for a fraction of the price. [SPEAKER_01] What you're saying is actually that is true, but we will still pay for the frontier. [SPEAKER_01] That's right. [SPEAKER_01] And so they will still accrue great value. [SPEAKER_01] That's right. And I think this distinction feels like a contradiction. It's not, though. It feels like two things cannot be true simultaneously, but that's not quite the case. In fact, I would argue that the frontier is increasingly going to be a thing that very few individuals might even want. [SPEAKER_02] You could argue that after a point, it's not even interesting that AIs can write software. [SPEAKER_02] You've normalized it, right? [SPEAKER_02] Let's say that's going to be the case. [SPEAKER_02] Instead of companies being built with tens of thousands of software engineers, unlike the past, there'll be a lot more companies with smaller software teams, and each of us will be using a lot of AIs. [SPEAKER_02] So that's actually good for the world. [SPEAKER_02] We'll be seeing a lot of different businesses. We'll be seeing allocation of software labor in places that was never even possible. And whatever is the frontier is going to be things that AI is going and designing chips. AI is designing drugs. AI is figuring out how to build robots. AI is figuring out how to cure cancer. These are applications where you don't have 10 million users. It's a few companies, but the effect of that work will touch a lot of human lives. I think to me that's where the frontier is headed. You could also see that from the moves that frontier labs are making. Anthropic bought a wet lab. Could be for the talent. Could be for the infrastructure to run wet lab experiments. But imagine taking all those tokens and putting it in the mid-training instead of just tokens from GitHub. Right? So then that's going to produce something interesting. [SPEAKER_01] Don't laugh. [SPEAKER_01] Is there an asymptote to frontier problems to be solved? [SPEAKER_01] I know that sounds ridiculous. [SPEAKER_01] But if you are continuously on the chase for the next frontier problem, you get to cancer. [SPEAKER_01] You get to climate change. [SPEAKER_01] And my word, I hope they solve both. [SPEAKER_01] And heaven, that's a huge amount to solve. [SPEAKER_01] But if you're on the treadmill of continuously on it, is there an asymptote to that? [SPEAKER_01] Do you see what I mean? There's no mathematical argument to there being a cap on the amount of economic value one can create with AGI or ASI-like systems. And Elon has a good argument for this. [SPEAKER_02] He says money loses all meaning in a post-AGI economy. [SPEAKER_02] Because you will be producing an abundance of energy and labor. [SPEAKER_02] And fundamentally, the economy is grounded to energy and labor. [SPEAKER_02] If you can produce an abundance of them, well, what meaning does money have? And heaven, that's a huge amount to solve. But if you're on the treadmill of continuously on it, is there an asymptote to that? Do you see what I mean? [SPEAKER_02] There's no mathematical argument to there being a cap on the amount of economic value one can create with AGI or ASI-like systems. [SPEAKER_02] And Elon has a good argument for this. He says money loses all meaning in a post-AGI economy. Because you will be producing an abundance of energy and labor. And fundamentally, the economy is grounded to energy and labor. If you can produce an abundance of them, what meaning does money have? And so I don't think we run out of things to solve at the frontier. I think we're always going to be creative. Why did people even want to understand the universe? Why did we want to understand subatomic particles, quantum physics, black hole theory, the origins of the universe? What is the purpose? But we still went ahead and did it because that's what the purpose of humanity has always been, to understand the unknown. David Deutsch is famous for saying this, right? We are the only species capable of being curious about what is already familiar. You can stare at a fruit and you know that it's a mango and you know exactly how it tastes, you know how it looks, you know the shape, you know what seasons it grows. But you can still look at it and ask one more question about it that you haven't asked before. Other animal species cannot. Once they have it in their mental model, what it looks like and touches and feels like, they're going to ignore it. It's not interesting to them. [SPEAKER_01] Can I ask you, you mentioned about agent usage and you said if you do repetitive tasks versus one off, say cron jobs. I think someone said we're going to have a 24-7 AI. [SPEAKER_01] And they've talked about a hardware product that's going to come out. [SPEAKER_01] Do you think we will have continuous agents running? Yeah. And I think so. [SPEAKER_02] And I think that's why I believe the orchestration problem I talked about maximizing the token value. Can you just help me on, sorry, when you say the orchestration problem. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. So there are four objectives. [SPEAKER_02] Accuracy, intelligence and accuracy, and then privacy and cost. These are all competing with each other. So you could argue that you could max out on intelligence and accuracy by building giant data centers and spending a lot of power to run them. And you could miss out on privacy and costs because everything will be centralized and you're going to be paying a lot. You could argue that everything can run locally. And so that'll be good for privacy and costs, but may not be frontier intelligence, may not be frontier accuracy. So the solution is to figure out a sweet spot. Use local models when necessary, use server side models when necessary. And orchestrate across local models and server side models, grounded in valuable personal context. Sometimes the intelligence might already be there, but the system might not work because the harness isn't grounded in the right set of tools, right? So build a world-class harness that can even make an okayish model appear great and be able to use the right model for the right task and the right part of the task, subagents. And even utilize the compute we all have in our own devices that doesn't need to be always on the server. That is an orchestration problem, a router, an awesome router, a master orchestrator router. Now, if you do that, you can realize the vision of a 24-7 AI without people freaking out about going bankrupt. Because no one's going to be able to afford a 24-7 AI, frontier AI, running on the server. Imagine you turned it on and you could never switch it off unless something crazy happened. Imagine you're the thing that most people worry about with AI is, what if it does something crazy? But the real concern actually is the cost. Nobody's going to be able to afford a cron job at the fidelity of a few seconds that runs all the time. And so the bottleneck there is actually orchestration and local compute. And so I believe one needs to build a continuously learning local model that can save you on compaction, context windows, and try to preserve as much compute locally and rely on the server-side frontier only when necessary. And keeps learning, keeps adapting, keeps evolving. And that model is not just a model. It's a model plus the harness, plus the local chip and the compute and the ecosystem of devices it controls. That system is going to be your own intelligence. Essentially, the data center moved to your local device. And you get to control it. You get to own it. You don't get to worry about somebody spying on you or looking at all your tokens, very valuable personal tokens. Imagine you have very sensitive deal materials. Let's say you're doing a deal. And then a frontier lab has all your tokens that you use to write a memo. Imagine somebody could hack into that server and steal your deal from you. You wouldn't want that, right? [SPEAKER_01] I'm going to be honest. [SPEAKER_01] I think there's much more valuable things for people to steal from a London-based VC. [SPEAKER_01] But yes, I can see. You're not just another London VC. You have a $400 million fund last time I read it. So imagine you're already making your moves for the $4 billion fund, right? [SPEAKER_02] So everyone has certain levels of sensitive stuff. [SPEAKER_02] And so I think that's where I believe the 24-7 always-on agent is going to be realized by the company that wants to play the role of the orchestrator, not the model builder, not the frontier model builder, but the orchestrator. [SPEAKER_02] And I think that's what we want to do. So Computers has been positioned explicitly as the agent orchestrator. The musicians in the orchestra are these sub-agents that utilize these different models. Think of them as the instruments. And the tools, the connectors, the models, these are all the instruments. And the musicians are the sub-agents. And the symphony is the work. And the system is the orchestra. And Computers is the orchestra conductor. That's how it's been positioned. So what it orchestrates keeps evolving, right? It changes. It changes from models to files to tools to chips to devices. But it doesn't even matter. You don't care as long as it orchestrates things correctly and maximizes the token value for the user. And the tools, the connectors, the models, these are all the instruments. And the musicians are the sub-agents. And the symphony is the work. And the system is the orchestra. And computer is the orchestra conductor. That's how it's been positioned. So what it orchestrates keeps evolving, right? It changes. It changes from models to files to tools to chips to devices. But it doesn't even matter. You don't care as long as it orchestrates things correctly and maximizes the token value for what? For user. If you can solve this problem, you will capture the most economic value in AI long term. Short term, it might look like this other lab's revenue is growing exponentially, this, that. But long term, this is the one objective that truly matters. Who is best positioned to do that? I believe it's us. Because you have the incentive of not token maxing. You have the incentive of delivering the most value to the user. Every time any part of the AI stack improves, our product improves. Since the beginning of the year, Anthropic's models have made tremendous progress. But what's also true is that our revenue has more than tripled since the beginning of the year. Tripled since just the beginning of the year. And a lot of thanks to model progress made by Anthropic. And we also brought our burndown thanks to OpenAI competing with them and bringing down the cost of the same capability. And now, with progress in open source and local models and local chips, we're going to move some of the inference back to the local devices and bring down the cost even more. So every time any part of the AI stack, whether it's chips, models, harnesses, any of these gets better, our system improves tremendously. And if our system improves tremendously, our users love it and they pay more. They spend more. And so our business grows. So I think to your question of who's best positioned to win in that world for that objective of being an orchestrator is the one whose product or business benefits from other people's progress at any layer of the stack. [SPEAKER_02] And so if Jensen produces a better chip, it's great for us. [SPEAKER_02] If Dario produces a better model, it's great for us. If Apple produces a better device, it's great for us. And I love the fact that we are able to be a very positive player at every layer of the stack and not have to rely on any one person to win. [SPEAKER_01] When we look at the different providers that we said server-side versus on-device, when we look at server-side, a lot of people are wearing an AI infrastructure bubble, which I think is funny, stupid and moronic. [SPEAKER_01] To what extent do we have a data center supply problem today from what you see? I think the biggest problem is actually in power. So let's break down. What is a data center? Is it that you just buy a bunch of chips from Dell or Super Micro? No, that's just one part of it. You actually have to secure land or you have to lease something, lease a property. And you have to buy a bunch of turbines to generate power. Or you have to work with power suppliers, grid suppliers. And you also have to work on cooling. So there's a lot of other work you have to put in that is far, far slower. You have to get permits to do all these things. And so usually what's happening is there's a lot of lead time doing this. And the models that are already in use today, these have been trained in the Hopper generation. So the Blackwell generation model, I think the first model that's Blackwell generation category is Mitos. And it's already scary. People are already freaking out about it. So imagine that everyone pre-trains a model on a million or hundreds of thousands of Blackwells. Now those models are going to be far more powerful than what exists today. And then the Vera Rubens are coming next year in full capacity. All the data centers of Vera Rubens will be used next year. That model will be even more powerful. So I think there is a certain physical build out time that always bottlenecks frontier capabilities. That's why there's a value in that layer. Whoever knows how to do this puts together a bunch of GPUs and chips and networking and power and cooling and actually orchestrates all this software layer on top and is able to convert that into frontier output tokens. [SPEAKER_02] That vertical integration has a lot of value. [SPEAKER_02] So that's why the markets are pricing infrastructure companies with a higher PE ratio than companies like Meta, for example. [SPEAKER_02] Even though Meta has a lot of infra, it's valued as a software company. When we see Meta's capex spend and it wanting to increase in the last few days and thinking about raising more and more money to increase capex spend, I get it with a lot of the AI providers like your OpenAI or your Anthropics because they are making money from their AI products. For Meta, the capex spend correlates to increasing accuracy on ads, which is a 6% to 8% bump in revenue. I get it. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] But for the capex spend, it doesn't make sense. Well, I believe they are understanding what the market's saying. I don't think they're dumb to not see what's being said. I think they're introducing a lot of subscription products from what I'm reading. So they're definitely going to the company needs to not just be a social platform maximizing engagement and turning that into ad revenue, right? And I think that requires them to launch a lot of agents, subscription-based products, and maybe even a cloud, MetaCloud that rents out servers like what Elon's doing at SpaceX. And maybe once they do that, the narrative might change, right? [SPEAKER_02] But to go back to my point, it might not be inconceivable that Micron, the supplier of HBMs, might be more valuable than Meta in the next 6 to 12 months. [SPEAKER_02] It's already at a trillion, and Meta is 1.3 to 1.4 trillion. Can you help me understand that? Because memory is already a massive bottleneck. It's increased 5x in price in terms of the cogs. Right. [SPEAKER_01] But people are saying Micron is fully priced at this point. [SPEAKER_01] Why is it not fully priced? Because it's still the bottleneck. Whatever is the bottleneck will command the price. AMD is doing really well because CPUs became a bottleneck again. And agent loops, agent harnesses are all running on CPUs. The tokens are produced by the frontier models on GPUs. [SPEAKER_01] Can you help me understand that? [SPEAKER_01] Because memory is already a massive bottleneck. [SPEAKER_01] It's increased 5x in price in terms of the COGS. [SPEAKER_01] Right. [SPEAKER_01] But people are going, wow, Micron is fully priced at this point. [SPEAKER_01] Why is it not fully priced? Because it's still the bottleneck. Whatever is the bottleneck will command the price. [SPEAKER_02] AMD is doing really well because CPUs became a bottleneck again. And then agent loops, agent harnesses are all running on CPUs. [SPEAKER_02] The tokens are produced by the frontier models on GPUs. But whatever work, let's say Claude generates a coding script that decides to download 500 files from different websites and then munges a lot of data and transforms it in certain ways and generates a plot and then hosts it on a website that you can share with your people. So all that computing is running on CPUs. Agents are using CPUs more than humans. And so suddenly there's a rise in enterprise CPUs. And the beneficiaries of these are like Intel and AMD. So then they get to be the bottleneck. Whoever is going to be the bottleneck will win. And so infrastructure is the bottleneck right now because there's a lot of demand and we just don't have the supply. And so whoever supplies memory, SSDs for storage, CPU compute, suddenly these are all interesting. They're more important than companies that are just building data centers and not knowing how to turn that into a valuable output. [SPEAKER_01] Do you believe your Nebius and your Coreweaves will be a sustainable multi-hundred billion dollar company in the future or is it solving a short-term supply problem? I certainly think they can be sustainable. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. I think there are some—I don't know particularly which of those is going to win. And there's also other players like Crusoe and Firebird and a bunch of companies. It's all about being resourceful. You got to take power from areas where there's a lot of natural resources. [SPEAKER_02] And the cost to bring up the data center is pretty cheap. And the time to bring up the data center is cheap. And your service is reliable. If somebody commits to buying a hundred thousand GPUs from you, the service should be pretty good. And you should be able to secure the supply ahead of time and plan well. And I think some companies are even innovating at the power layer. You know, generating their own power is one way to bring down the margins. And so I think there's certainly value in that layer because it's hard to replicate work. That's how I see it. You could argue that OpenAI can do all the work that CoreWeave was doing. And that's what they wanted to do with Stargate. But why is CoreWeave more successful at building data centers than OpenAI? It's hard to do. [SPEAKER_01] It's operationally intensive. Yeah, operationally intensive. [SPEAKER_02] You got to focus. [SPEAKER_02] You got to spend most of your time securing permits, figuring out power, figuring out bottlenecks in the supply chain here and there. [SPEAKER_02] And constantly plan ahead and test all these systems carefully, deal with random physical issues that arise in running a data center. There's something called TCO, total cost of operations. [SPEAKER_02] You got to factor that in. [SPEAKER_02] And so that said, I don't think there's value if you're just a server renter. [SPEAKER_02] If you're just a GPU server rack renter, if you're just leasing it to different companies on certain hourly pricing rates, there's not a lot of value. [SPEAKER_02] You have to actually build some software on top, how AWS did. [SPEAKER_02] It's called Amazon Web Services, not Amazon servers, right? [SPEAKER_02] So you have to have some software orchestration on top that allows you to get software margins on top of what you're doing. [SPEAKER_02] And I think that's why you're seeing moves like Nebius going for AI model inference, taking open source models or hosting your models. And that's a business model of certain other companies like Fireworks and Base 10 and all that. But you could imagine Nebius just going for that business. [SPEAKER_01] That was exactly my question. So I just had the co-founder of Nebius on the show. [SPEAKER_01] And the really clear takeaway was the challenge that he has, which is there's a huge amount of money that wants just capacity and compute. Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] With the awareness that he needs to build a full-stack product if he wants to have a long-term sustainable business. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] That was the core realization for me. [SPEAKER_01] When I look at the inference layer, like you said, Fireworks or Base 10, how do you think that plays out? [SPEAKER_01] Do we have standalone $100 billion companies in inference alone? [SPEAKER_01] Or do we see that commodity? I mean, it's all about working backwards. [SPEAKER_02] What does it take to build a $100 billion company? [SPEAKER_02] Assume— 10 billion in revenue. [SPEAKER_02] Exactly. 10 billion in revenue, 30 to 40% gross margins, good amount of net income, good cash flow. Okay. 10 billion in revenue is not inconceivable for a company that can both do AI-hosted inference and server capacity and data center buildouts. It's operationally well. It's all about factors beyond their control, like open source models continuing to be awesome. [SPEAKER_02] If open source models stop being good, where the gap between them and the frontier is more than 12 months, 15 months, 18 months, then I don't think these companies really have a business model because they're not going to be able to host. [SPEAKER_02] They're only going to be able to rent capacity to OpenAI or Anthropic. And so— That's exactly what Roman and Nebius said. He said if consolidation happens and there's Anthropic and OpenAI or two or three dominant providers, that is the biggest threat to Nebius. That's correct. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. [SPEAKER_02] And so you got to make a leap of faith assumption that models from China or NVIDIA is making good progress on their models in Nemotron. [SPEAKER_02] So there's going to be enough factors in the market to keep consolidation from happening as an outcome. But you don't control your own destiny if you're those companies. That's basically the problem. [SPEAKER_01] Totally get that. [SPEAKER_01] Okay. [SPEAKER_01] So we can have standalone companies that are $100 billion in inference alone. [SPEAKER_01] Sorry, I'm just using you for your knowledge. [SPEAKER_01] When we look at the model selection companies like OpenRouter or Factory AI just released that kind of model selection or model routing product. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Which did very well on launch. So there's going to be enough factors in the market to keep consolidation as an outcome from stopping from happening. But you don't control your own destiny if you're those companies. That's the problem. [SPEAKER_01] Totally get that. [SPEAKER_01] Okay. [SPEAKER_01] So we can have standalone companies that are $100 billion in inference alone. [SPEAKER_01] Sorry, I'm just pillaging you for your knowledge. [SPEAKER_01] When we look at the model selection companies like an open router or Factory AI just released that model selection or model routing product. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Which did very well on launch. [SPEAKER_01] Is that $100 billion companies in the model selection and routing business? Probably not. I think you can be a provider of a router. You have to use the router to produce something meaningful. Actually, most of the business value of open router is less than the router, even though the product is called open router. It's not routing across models there. It's actually just routing across different endpoints of the same model. So, maybe let's ask this question. If you wanted to use Claude Opus or GPT-55's developer, why would you not want to just use it with your own API key versus using it inside open router? Number one argument. The single simplest argument as to why you would want to do that is model fallbacks. Sometimes your API keys might not have the rate limits. Or even if you have the rate limits, there might be an error on open AI servers that don't guarantee you the response time you need to run your application. [SPEAKER_02] And open router would go and earn the, they would pay for capacity for one year ahead with the funding they have and secure the rate limits and multiple endpoints across multiple different providers of open AI models, be it Bedrock or Azure or open AI themselves. [SPEAKER_02] And so that routing is valuable. [SPEAKER_02] It's essentially an infra problem they're solving, which is reliable token supply. It's not actually lowering the cost by deciding if this prompt should go to GPT or Claude or something like that. [SPEAKER_02] That's not what they're actually selling to the developer. That's not the business model. And then for a lot of these Chinese open source models, you probably don't want your API tokens going to, let's say you don't want your API tokens going to China. Yeah. And let's say you don't have the bandwidth to work with different inference providers or verify who's good and who's not. You're just trusting open router to take care of all that. And then they're going to supply the tokens to you. [SPEAKER_02] So it's routing not at the level of deciding which model is cheaper or task. [SPEAKER_02] It's more reliable token supply. [SPEAKER_02] And I think there's some value in that layer, definitely. Otherwise, they wouldn't have these many users and these many trillions of tokens being routed a month. But it's not high gross margins business. The way the business model works for them is they would secure a discount from the model providers by guaranteeing a lot of supply. But they would still charge the user listing price on the API. And that difference is their margins. Do you understand? [SPEAKER_01] I totally get you. [SPEAKER_01] We spoke about bottlenecks and you said about HBM, high bandwidth memory and Micron and the value that they have today and what it can be. What bottleneck will we have in three years that we're not discussing today? [SPEAKER_02] I think power will remain the bottleneck. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. Unless something dramatically changes in the way data center buildouts happen. I actually believe that there will be a lot of resistance to building data centers. It's because people incorrectly think that data centers consume a lot of water or eat up a lot of power, which both are untrue. Satya even made the statement that it's a can of water or something in terms of how efficient these companies are. [SPEAKER_01] Do you think that's why they're putting up resistance in them? I don't. I think it's because it's a symbol of job losses, increasing wealth inequality. It's a lot of things. [SPEAKER_01] It's a lot of things. [SPEAKER_01] It's a lot of apprehensions, fear about what's going to happen, channelizing in so many different ways. Sometimes it's channelizing through hatred for wealth inequality and wanting to tax people. Sometimes it's channeling through concerns for the environment and climate change. Sometimes it's channelizing in a way where you're all, oh, the price of the grid is going up because you guys are building all these data centers. And then I'm paying more for my phones and laptops now because the RAM prices have gone up because you guys went and bought all of it. So I think there's a lot of different ways in which it's getting channelized, but the common sentiment is a pretty bad sentiment about AI. [SPEAKER_01] Do you think it will be meaningful to the development of those data centers? I think right now 40 out of 100 are not being developed because of public resistance. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. So that's where the power bottleneck is. And you could see maybe certain countries seize the opportunity for this and allow these model builders to build data centers there. Elon's going to space to do that. So that's going to be an interesting experiment because there's a lot of energy from the sun that can be harnessed there. And there's a lot of natural resources in other countries. Regulations might be more friendly. So we're still going to see data center buildouts. It might not happen in the U.S. But the fact that you have to solve physical problems, you actually have to deal with the supply chain, the permits, securing power, making sure things work and getting the lead times lower and lower, you're not solving problems by cloning some SaaS apps here. Right. Or building a go-to-market team or doing better marketing against the competitors' products. Yes, those are also hard problems, but these are much harder problems where you're not in full control of your destiny and you need a lot of capital and connections and the right people, sometimes even political help to unlock progress. And so that's why this will continue to remain the bottleneck, in my opinion. And there's a lot of risk as well, because if you do encounter another Deep Seek moment here, where there's a vastly more efficient model that's been built with a very different vertically integrated architecture, and you built out all this capacity and you're like, damn, that's, I overbuilt. That's something far more efficient that can run on people's local devices, your MacBooks, their Windows PCs. Yeah, you're probably freaking out then. And so you hope that— [SPEAKER_01] How likely do you think that is though? It's probably 20%, 30% chance. [SPEAKER_02] And so that's why this will continue to remain the bottleneck, in my opinion. And there's a lot of risk as well, because if you do encounter another deep seek moment here, where there's a vastly more efficient model that's been built with a very different vertically integrated architecture, and you built out all this capacity and you're like, damn, that's, I overbuilt. That's something far more efficient that can run on people's local devices, your MacBooks, their Windows PCs. Yeah, you're probably freaking out then. And so you hope that— How likely do you think that is though? It's probably like 20%, 30% chance. The reason I think there are some possibilities is because of the export controls. So deep seek is not building within NVIDIA stack. They're building the Huawei stack. And because there are export controls on not just NVIDIA GPUs, but also on HPMs, these architectures that deep seek is building are far more memory efficient. They've made innovations on the KV cache to be really small enough that you can host it on the SSDs. And they don't need high bandwidth memory for inference time. And they're going to have a completely different architecture for inference, [SPEAKER_02] completely different architecture for storage, because they're not allowed to use the 3D NANDs. [SPEAKER_02] So their architecture is going to look—it's not just a model architecture. The model architecture is already pretty different. They've made innovations on the attention layer. They've made innovations on the training algorithms so that it doesn't consume a lot of interconnect capacity. [SPEAKER_02] So they've made a lot—their whole stack is getting vertically integrated to their hardware and their chips and their fabs and so on. And so that's a very different bet from what America is making. Do you think the export controls have helped or hurt us? [SPEAKER_01] Hurts a lot. Short term it's helping. Because the only reason I—my belief, the only reason why there's even like a 12-month gap between open source and frontier is export controls. It's definitely helped. And definitely companies like Anthropic lobbied very hard for it. But there is a chance that because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer. And one advantage they have is they can actually build data centers a lot, lot faster. [SPEAKER_02] Power is not a problem. [SPEAKER_02] Permits are not a problem. [SPEAKER_02] People are not a problem. [SPEAKER_02] Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you're converting them into a far more potent competitor. Do you think we still dramatically underestimate China's capabilities? [SPEAKER_01] I think so. [SPEAKER_00] Because if AI is not just digital, but also physical AI, you've got to build fabs, robots, chips, and harness the energy really well and package it into local devices. I think they have a lot more advantages than America. How important is it that we have our own TSMC in the US? [SPEAKER_01] So TSMC is actually—there is a fab of TSMC in Arizona. Not a lot of people talk about this, but TSMC is investing like $150 billion into that, into building American fabs. And they've already invested $40 billion or something like that, $60 billion last time I checked. So there is a TSMC in Arizona that's coming up. There's also Intel. And that's why, you know, American government owns 10% of Intel. Nvidia and SoftBank own 5% each. So there is a lot of investment going into an American fab as well as TSMC is investing into its American fabs. Elon's building TeraFab. I think people have woken up to the importance of building fabs. But this is also why China is particularly very, very competent. Because given the capabilities of China that we just mentioned that really articulately, [SPEAKER_01] I know it's a ridiculous question, but if I were to say to you, your job is to make sure America stays competitive, what would you do to ensure that you retained competitiveness in an increasingly strong China? I think take physical infrastructure a lot more seriously and continue funding it. And not have all these—you know, I wouldn't say meaningless. It's more like not propagate fake news around data centers about how data centers are polluting, contaminating water, or they're sucking up all the water and actually be fact-driven. And so, you know, I hope our product helps there. You can go to Perplexity and ask any question and get fact-checked on your assumptions. But it's very important that we educate the public about what's actually going on in a language they easily understand. And not fear monger. Not be like, oh, all their jobs are going to go away. There's going to be lots of amazing companies that are going to get built with far fewer people getting multi-billion dollar, multi-hundred million dollar valuations with 20, 30 people and propelling trillions of dollars of new GDP. Let's talk about how to enable that. Let's talk about how to build that and create a more positive future together. Instead of, oh, 90% of the jobs are going to be gone. They're all going to get screwed over by our models. [SPEAKER_02] And it's our moral duty to tell you all this. That doesn't make any sense to me. You can't win by saying that and also complaining about not being able to build data centers fast. Do you think we've done a complete disservice by having the marketing message that Dario has had that all jobs are going and it's all doom and gloom? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. I think so. [SPEAKER_02] I mean, I think they have contradictory messages in their own different social engagement so far where the most reasoned one I heard was there is no evidence that AI is taking over jobs. [SPEAKER_02] But there needs to be a consistent communication around this. [SPEAKER_02] And I also think that very little is being spoken about how AI can help you build companies in a very different way. [SPEAKER_02] With the current AI, organic AI. [SPEAKER_02] It's already true that so many things you would hire people for, you can do it with agents. But one way of looking at it is, oh, what happens to all the jobs? But the other way of looking at it is, hey, I can—I never had the chance to go build out a company on this idea that I've been having all this time. And maybe me and a group of friends can come together and build this and can you guys figure out a way to give us compute credits? [SPEAKER_02] Or, you know, Amazon gave a lot of compute credits to a lot of startups. [SPEAKER_02] The current AIs, organic AI. It's already true that so many things you would hire people for, you can do it with agents. But one way of looking at it is, oh, what happens to all the jobs? But the other way of looking at it is, hey, I can never had the chance to go build out a company on this idea that I've been having all this time. And maybe me and a group of friends can come together and build this and can you guys figure out a way to give us compute credits? Or, Amazon gave a lot of compute credits to a lot of startups. When we started Perplexity, we had around $200,000 worth of Amazon credits and GCP credits and Azure credits that almost together, cumulatively, this was worth a million dollars in compute credits. Now, in today's world, it's going to be a million dollars of compute credits. And we're doing that. We're funding this thing called the billion dollar build, where we're giving a million dollars of compute credits to any group of people who have a credible path to building a billion dollar company. And I want thousands of companies to be built. What did you think of Sam Altman giving $2 million of tokens to YC companies? [SPEAKER_01] I think we should do more of that. Yeah, that's the right thing to do. We should do a lot more of this because you want new companies to be built. And even if they're worth multi-hundred million dollars, right, it's good. If there are thousands of them, that's a lot of new GDP. I spoke to Anne Bordetsky before the show, and she said how AI-pilled the team is for you. [SPEAKER_01] How big is the team today? It's 400 people. 400 people. How big will it be in two years' time? [SPEAKER_01] I don't know. It's hard to say. Maybe 800,000. So will companies follow the same headcount trajectory that they have always followed and we will just solve new problems? Or will they be dramatically more efficient with a much fewer number of people? [SPEAKER_01] Definitely they'll be dramatically more efficient. Right. And that's why I am a believer in building a lot more efficient companies and being an example for all these companies ourselves. People should look at Perplexity and be, oh, with 400 people, you can build a multi, I don't know, $20 billion company. And so that means with 40 people, I could probably build a $1 billion or $2 billion company. And that's totally doable. Totally doable. And so for us, maybe that means with 4,000 people, we could be worth $200 billion. We could be worth $2 trillion with 10,000 people. I think that doesn't mean it's bad for all the 100,000 people we did not hire for a typical $2 trillion company. I would rather have those 100,000 people be split into groups of 100,000 groups. And each of those 1,000 groups are worth a few billion dollars. That's awesome. And I think a lot more people need to be entrepreneurial. There are people who would be bad employees in any company because they're difficult to work with. They don't listen to instructions. They don't follow roadmaps or they're not easy to collaborate with. But maybe the flip side of that is those are the kind of qualities that founders typically have. Aaron, there is a population and a very large population that are not AI native people that are not using AI to improve workflows, improve efficiency. What would you advise them? [SPEAKER_01] Get started. First steps, get started. And channelize your curiosity, right? You don't need to use AIs to do your existing work. If your existing work is boring to you, you probably won't enjoy it even if you use AIs to do it. You got a lot of heat for saying people don't like their jobs. I didn't say if you actually listen to my interview, I did not say that. People want clickbait articles and they take something I said in one sentence out of context and make it into a headline. [SPEAKER_01] What did you say? I specifically said this. Hey, there are a lot of people who don't enjoy their jobs. By the way, the fact that that thing went viral is not because I was completely wrong. I think a lot of people resonated with the fact that I was actually honest in saying a lot of people don't enjoy their jobs. And that has nothing to do with your economic position of standing in society. You might even be really wealthy, but doing a job that you completely don't enjoy and destroying the peak years of your adult life, working on something that is horrible or depressing. So my point is that if that's you and the reason you could never leave your job is because you were always worried if you, how would you build a company from scratch? There are all these things to figure out. You have to hire a lot of people. You have to set up an office, this, that. That's changed for the first time in history. You can get started on an idea with one or two other friends and maybe have a real genuine shot at building a billion dollar company. [SPEAKER_01] Totally get that. Everything that we've discussed today has been on the back of unprecedented demand up and to the right. We need more memory. We need more data center supply. We need on demand service. Everything's up and to the right. Seeing some cracks in. Uber's saying, I'm not sure I'm getting the productivity gains that I thought. Microsoft lining with them, putting a $1,500 token budget. Do you think we will have a continuous up and to the right acceptance that productivity gains are unwavering? We have to do this. Or will there be falterings along the way? I mean, I'm sure there's going to be falterings along the way. And people are rightfully freaking out about token maxing, which is why I think you need some form of hybrid hygienic inference. You need some amount of inference compute to run locally that you're not paying for tokens on, unmetered intelligence, essentially. [SPEAKER_01] How will the best companies of the future structure token budgets? My hope is that they don't have to understand that. They will be able to work with an orchestrator who does it for them. It's not going to be easy for you to constantly keep track of which models are the best at what things and how do you allocate. Oh, this is the budget for coding. This is the budget for finance. How do you even understand which models are good at each of those things and how much do you spend on each of these divisions? You need some amount of inference compute to run locally that you're not paying for tokens on, unmetered intelligence, essentially. [SPEAKER_02] How will the best companies of the future structure token budgets? My hope is that they don't have to understand that. They will be able to work with an orchestrator who does it for them. It's not going to be easy for you to constantly keep track of which models are the best at what things and how do you allocate. Oh, this is the budget for coding. This is the budget for finance. So how do you even understand which models are good at each of those things and how much do you spend on each of these divisions? You're not going to be able to keep track. I had a friend on the show the other day say that Google will be the token king. [SPEAKER_01] They can produce the lowest cost tokens out of anyone. [SPEAKER_01] They own full stack TPUs, data centers, networking, power, procurement. [SPEAKER_01] Do you think that's true, that they will be the lowest cost token producer? [SPEAKER_01] They have advantages, all advantages one needs to have to be that. But they underestimated the importance of coding models. And so they're far behind the frontier right now. So, again, they could catch up. Totally capable, totally competent team. But today they're not quite at the frontier. [SPEAKER_01] I was shocked the other day. [SPEAKER_01] I saw the Cloudflare announcement that now agent traffic has overtaken human traffic for them. Why are you shocked? [SPEAKER_02] It was quicker than I thought. Okay. I thought that would happen, but in two years. Maybe not now. How does the world change when agent traffic far exceeds human traffic? I think people are just going to have a lot more agency. [SPEAKER_02] That's it. [SPEAKER_02] But do websites go away? Does design not matter? Does the advertising model of the internet die completely? [SPEAKER_02] No, it doesn't. Because my belief is that the advertising model around travel or shopping or fashion are not getting disrupted by agents because the judgment is not objective. Anything where the judgment is objective, the transaction is based on objective judgment, that's going to get disrupted by agents. Anything where the transaction is more subjective, where the decisions are more subjective—like what is the best piece of furniture inside this spot? [SPEAKER_02] Why this particular table? Or those kinds of things. Probably for the mic, you would buy an objective decision. The table, you probably are caring about the aesthetics of the room. I think that's how I feel the world will split. And subjective things will still be ad-based. Objective things will be agent-based. I watched your commencement speech on the back of speaking to Samir at Excel, and he said I had to watch it. So obviously, I watched it. And one of the points you made was the defining skill of the area is asking better questions. [SPEAKER_02] What question is no one asking today that maybe everyone should be asking? I think people need to ask more about like, okay, assuming I have a lot of agency available to me, what do I do? Imagine I gave you a headcount of 100,000 people or 10,000 people and enough compute credits to run those agents. What would you do? Let's say you have suddenly 10,000 agents at your disposal. What would you do? I remember you telling me, or not me, but in some episode of yours where you said you only did this podcasting because you felt like you didn't have an arbitrage to go win deals. [SPEAKER_01] A hundred percent. Yeah. That's why I still do it. [SPEAKER_01] I mean, I love what I do, but yeah. [SPEAKER_02] So you've gotten some amount of distribution. So now assuming that you can, you have, let's say you could spend $100 million on a generic inference and grounded with all the connectors and stuff, and it's all working. [SPEAKER_02] What would you do with that capability to further your goals? [SPEAKER_02] What should your goals even be then? [SPEAKER_02] I think that's the question I would ask. [SPEAKER_02] Assuming that in the next three to five years, you're going to be able to delegate whatever digital task you want and with the right harness and agents and be able to delegate that. [SPEAKER_01] Fundamentally, it would be to build an agentic infrastructure to be able to find, identify, outreach, set up, win great investments and have the media sit on top and power that. [SPEAKER_01] That is intensely difficult to do and would be the holy grail to investing. But that would power what my end goal ambition is. [SPEAKER_02] So your goal is to run a 10 to 100X larger fund, right? [SPEAKER_02] That's basically what I'm hearing from you. So let's assume it's a $40 billion fund from $400 million. Okay. Then all you got to ask is, assuming I have all the headcount I need to do this, how much faster can I do it? I think that's how I would frame this question. I think Elon has a similar thing he spoke about once where, okay, assume that a task, somebody tells you a task is going to take 10 years. Ask the question, what would it take to do it in 10 months? Maybe it's impossible to do it in 10 months, but you'll probably get pretty far asking those questions compared to somebody who takes it for granted that it's going to take 10 years. [SPEAKER_01] All right, interviewer, put it on you. [SPEAKER_01] What's your 10 year and how does that look in a 10 month timeframe? I think our mission beyond any level of capitalism is to make the planet more curious. The product is always intended to help people ask the next question. And my goal is to truly realize that the level of agency that needs to exist in this world is quite not there. I think that needs to be grounded in numbers to make it possible. [SPEAKER_01] It's like me saying, oh, I want the best investments. Which is why a $40 billion fund is helpful. [SPEAKER_02] I can say the same thing, $2 trillion. [SPEAKER_02] It doesn't matter, right? [SPEAKER_02] 100x, 10x, 1,000x. These are all motivational milestones. Do you think Perplexity will be a trillion dollar company? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Anyone can be a trillion dollar company. I think that needs to be grounded in numbers, dude, to make it possible. [SPEAKER_01] It's me saying, oh, I want the best investments. [SPEAKER_01] Which is why a $40 billion fund is helpful. [SPEAKER_01] Sure. I can say the same thing, $2 trillion. It doesn't matter, right? [SPEAKER_02] 100x, 10x, 1,000x. [SPEAKER_02] These are all motivational milestones. [SPEAKER_02] Do you think Poplexy will be a trillion dollar company? Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Anyone can be a trillion dollar company. SK Hynix and Samsung are worth a trillion last couple of weeks. Did you know Samsung started off as a grocery store? Did you know that? You didn't know that? Okay. So they started selling dried fish. Seriously. Hynix was SK, the SK group started off as textiles company. [SPEAKER_02] So anyone can be worth a trillion dollar company. [SPEAKER_02] You just have to work your way towards that. [SPEAKER_02] The exact same logic for you that you laid out for how can a company be worth $100 billion. [SPEAKER_02] Okay, you said you need to make $10 billion in revenue. Isn't that the same for a trillion? [SPEAKER_02] You need to make $100 billion in revenue? And there was actually some very interesting data that KOTU revealed. [SPEAKER_01] I don't know if you saw it recently, which says about the probability of reaching the next level of value. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, it's higher. [SPEAKER_01] It's much higher. [SPEAKER_01] So when you're at a billion, it's much more likely to reach $10 billion. [SPEAKER_01] $10 billion, much more likely. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, that's true actually for even people. It's way more likely for a person with $100 million in liquid net worth to become a billionaire than someone with $10 million. Are you not worried about the wealth inequality? [SPEAKER_01] Aaron, if we were being blunt, we both are very lucky now to live in nice worlds and rarefied airs. Are you not worried by just how much money a very small number of people have and how hard it is for everyone else? And that gap is getting bigger. [SPEAKER_01] I think the way to ensure that doesn't remain the case is to distribute the benefits more widely. You got to let anyone... By the way, the people who are using our tools... [SPEAKER_02] I've had an Uber driver. [SPEAKER_02] So as honest as it can get, an Uber driver in San Francisco once told me that he watched one of my YouTube interviews where I explain how you can build a product or a web app with an AI from scratch. [SPEAKER_02] Went on to do it and used AIs to add billing and all that. And that makes more passive income for him than driving Ubers. And so he actually reduced the amount of time he's driving Uber because he loves live coding new apps. And that already tells you that for the person with agency and a positive outlook for the future, anything is possible. And so if you keep communicating all the negative things you can about AI and wealth inequality all the time, and that's the only thing news and press writes about, I think it'll perpetuate and people will only think the bad things. And so it's very essential that if you think you're already doing well, it's very essential that you talk about what are all the things that can go well and give hopes to people who were once upon a time like you. [SPEAKER_02] You started this podcasting circuit when you had nothing, right? [SPEAKER_02] Nothing. [SPEAKER_02] Exactly. So it's possible. So you got to talk more about that than be, oh, I feel so guilty that I made it. And now what about all these people who haven't made it? They can make it. [SPEAKER_01] I think I have a more pessimistic view of actual general public, which is I don't think that many people have agency. [SPEAKER_01] I think a lot of people have victim mentality. You got to help them. I think that's the most important thing. I think they got to help themselves. Sure. But people will help themselves once they see that, okay, I want to be like this guy. Let me work hard. You need an example, right? Nobody can become in shape without it. It takes discipline. [SPEAKER_02] It takes discipline. [SPEAKER_02] You got to get rid of bad habits. [SPEAKER_02] And so. [SPEAKER_02] And now is the best time ever to change your life in 12 months. The ability to go from nothing to actually billionaire in 12 months is now possible in some respects. Yes. And so I'm not saying everyone's going to make it and everyone's going to be worth a billion dollars. Isn't that the caption from this show? Aravind, everyone's going to make it. Anyone has the potential to make it. [SPEAKER_02] So it's as likely for Perplexity to become worth $2 trillion as a founder who's yet to secure funding to be worth a billion dollars. [SPEAKER_02] So it's equally hard, equally hard. And I think you just have to give yourself shots at the goal and be curious. That's the message from the commencement speech. Be curious. We have SpaceX. [SPEAKER_01] We have Anthropic. [SPEAKER_01] We have OpenAI going public. [SPEAKER_01] It feels like someone's shot the gun and the race is on. [SPEAKER_01] Is there enough money to fund three such large IPOs? There will be some reallocation for sure. There might be some holders of SaaS stocks who would put it into Anthropic or something. Let's say you believe that enterprise AI is going to take off. You might want to hedge between having a lot of Microsoft stock and Salesforce stock versus putting some of that into Anthropic. So let's say Vanguard or BlackRock own cumulatively they own $200 billion of Microsoft and Salesforce. They might be, okay, I'm going to take 30, 40 billion of that and put it into Anthropic. Fine. Not a bad bet to make. What happens to all the enterprise SaaS companies that are public? [SPEAKER_01] Growing. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, fine. They have to weather the storm. [SPEAKER_02] Is it a storm or is it continuous precipitation? [SPEAKER_01] I think you have to bring down the costs and produce new value. Salesforce has done well because they always went and bought the next thing. If you were just selling the same software, you're probably not going to be around. They might be okay, I'm going to take 30, 40 billion of that and put it into Anthropic. Fine. Not a bad bit to make. What happens to all the enterprise SaaS companies that are public? [SPEAKER_01] Growing. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, fine. [SPEAKER_01] They have to weather the storm. Is it a storm or is it continuous precipitation? [SPEAKER_01] I think you have to bring down the costs and produce new value. [SPEAKER_02] Salesforce has done well because they always went and bought the next thing. [SPEAKER_02] If you were just selling the same software, you're probably not going to be around. IBM is still around because they went and bought Red Hat and HashiCorp and now they're buying Confluent. So there are ways for these companies to stay alive and extend their lifespans. [SPEAKER_02] It's obviously going to be hard to preserve a brand that's as relevant. [SPEAKER_02] I don't think the IBM brand is that relevant anymore in terms of evoking an emotion and getting people to use their products. But as a business, it's going to be awesome. It's going to be fine. I have to finish on, you said IPO in 2028. [SPEAKER_01] I had to ask this. [SPEAKER_01] I woke up to this in my group. [SPEAKER_01] We have a team WhatsApp and it's Garvin, IPO 2028. [SPEAKER_02] I hope it can be sooner than that. [SPEAKER_02] When do you know when you're ready? Is there a billion in an hour? You're at 500 million an hour now? More than that. [SPEAKER_01] Far more than that, actually. [SPEAKER_01] Really? [SPEAKER_01] We're not ready to share it, but growing really fast. Revenue growth matters much more to you than profitability. [SPEAKER_01] Today. I think in general, by the way, you can look at public markets. People want top line growth more than bottom line efficiency right now. Because it's very hard. [SPEAKER_02] It's rare. [SPEAKER_02] Well, you definitely need one. Of course, sustainable businesses. [SPEAKER_01] You need to have a model in place to get the bottom line efficiency when that becomes the objective. [SPEAKER_02] And you need to also have a path to getting there. Where are you cost inefficient today where you expect to be significantly better in two to three years? [SPEAKER_01] We're training our own models. Post-training on top of amazing open source models. And that will bring down the cost that we currently spend on frontier model tokens. We expect to continue to use frontier models for designing new experiences and new capabilities that do not exist today in our products. But whatever exists today in our products right now, we expect it to completely rely on models we own and serve ourselves. And that's going to be the best way to bring down the costs and increase our margins. Will the largest enterprises in the world all be fine-tuning open models to have tailored models that are much more specific to them? [SPEAKER_01] Absolutely. [SPEAKER_02] Because it's in your incentives to bring down the costs. [SPEAKER_02] Does that not provide another bad case for the large frontier model providers? Frontier model providers will only remain relevant if they remain at the frontier. If for six months you're not seeing a new capability, it's bad for them. And so that's the uncomfortable nature of this field. [SPEAKER_02] No one's ever in a comfortable position. [SPEAKER_02] No one can relax. [SPEAKER_02] This is hard. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. [SPEAKER_02] It's going to get even harder. And that's the nature. It's just the price is too big. [SPEAKER_02] Take Anthropic. I think it's worth one to one and a half trillion, something in that range. That's basically the valuation of Meta. And this all was created in six years. Meta took 20 years to build. So the price is so big. [SPEAKER_02] And so no one can be comfortable. [SPEAKER_02] And anyone who's winning today can lose tomorrow, including the model providers. Pre this year, there was a three month period where people were talking about perplexity. [SPEAKER_01] What's happening with perplexity? Do you pay attention? [SPEAKER_01] Do you give a shit? [SPEAKER_01] Of course I pay attention to all of that. [SPEAKER_01] Do you care? [SPEAKER_01] There was one in particular in San Francisco, do you remember? [SPEAKER_01] Where they were voting on which company would fail? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, we were voted the most likely to fail. [SPEAKER_02] Cursor was voted the second most likely to fail. OpenAI was voted third or something. You don't give a shit? I feel we're all doing well. Cursor, I think, is getting sold. SpaceX. OpenAI. Going public, baby. [SPEAKER_01] Going public soon. We tripled our revenue since that judgment was made. Brought down the burn by more than 50%. [SPEAKER_02] I don't know. My sense is that most of those people who sit on these meetups and vote don't actually build anything useful. Cool. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Okay, we're going to do a quick fire round because I could talk to you all day. [SPEAKER_01] First one, what's one widely held belief that you think is completely wrong? [SPEAKER_01] I think a lot of people are obsessed about identifying a moat in the first year or two of their company. But I think the only shot you have is to move fast. In my mind, moving fast is a way of expressing humility because you're constantly making contact with the world and trying to question your assumptions all the time. Where are you still moving too slow internally today? [SPEAKER_01] I think we can be even more AI-pilled. [SPEAKER_02] It's insane I'm saying this because we are building some of the most interesting AI products and internal adoption of our own products or competitors' products can be even higher. [SPEAKER_02] And this is despite us being extremely agent-pilled internally and trying to delegate as much to agents. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, that's a big area. [SPEAKER_02] My hope is that we can turn this company almost into an AGI. [SPEAKER_02] And that doesn't mean no humans work here, but there will be an AGI that has all the context it needs to run different divisions of the company in a semi-autonomous way with some scaffolding provided by humans here and there. [SPEAKER_02] And that's not going to feel scary at all. [SPEAKER_02] We'll normalize that feeling very fast. [SPEAKER_02] It's just going to feel like the 10x engineer is running certain aspects of the company. If I gave you unlimited money, what would you do today that you're not doing? agents. Yeah, that's a big area. [SPEAKER_02] My hope is that we can turn this company almost into an AGI. And that doesn't mean no humans work here, but there will be an AGI that has all the context it needs to run different divisions of the company in a semi-autonomous way with some scaffolding provided by humans here and there. And that's not going to feel scary at all. We'll normalize that feeling very fast. It's just going to feel like the 10x engineer is running certain aspects of the company. [SPEAKER_02] If I gave you unlimited money, what would you do today that you're not doing? [SPEAKER_01] I would build data centers. You would? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. In space? [SPEAKER_01] I don't have expertise to do that, but I would start with land on earth. I think there's a lot of land and maybe you can be resourceful in securing permits and power in different countries, but I would start there. [SPEAKER_02] I think physical infrastructure build-outs is the return of the industrial age again. [SPEAKER_02] Like the forefathers who built the industrial revolution, oil pipelines, steel bridges, factories, producing cars. [SPEAKER_02] All these things that we take for granted today were built by people who spend a lot of time thinking about how to scale these things in a cost efficient way. [SPEAKER_02] And so we need to do that a lot for AI. And yeah, that's what I would do. Of course, you cannot just be building infra. You need to be able to utilize all that infra to produce valuable output tokens to the user. But we're already good at doing that. So infra is the thing I would focus on. [SPEAKER_02] You can buy and hold for 10 years: SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI, the three IPOs coming in the next few months. Which would you buy and hold for 10 years and why? [SPEAKER_01] SpaceX. [SPEAKER_01] Why? [SPEAKER_01] It's an end of one company. Like Anthropic and OpenAI can claim they do whatever each other does. But SpaceX is the only company building space infrastructure for connectivity. Have you been on a flight with Starlink? No. [SPEAKER_01] You should. You will hate being on a flight without Starlink after that. Imagine we can record this. I can watch this podcast while flying on a plane. Starlink lets you do that. That's just one aspect of the business. That's just one aspect of the business. [SPEAKER_02] One small aspect of the business. [SPEAKER_01] There's a lot of. I'm excited about possibilities to travel from Australia to San Francisco in 30 minutes. [SPEAKER_02] You know, all this feels like sci-fi, but I'm excited about all these possibilities. What job does not exist today that will be incredibly common in five years' time? I think it already exists. So the forward deployed engineer is definitely on the rise. I guess people with a really good sense of quality control. Maybe a better way to answer this is most jobs that exist, valuable jobs that exist are usually reincarnations of something that already existed. So I don't think we're going to see completely new things. It's just going to reincarnate in different ways. You can advise your little sibling who's finishing university today and just done a computer science degree. What's the one thing you would advise them? [SPEAKER_01] Stay curious. Don't give in to FOMO and trying to max out on something here in the short term. Don't go to Twitter and feel like a loser that people on Frontier Labs are getting so rich and everything feels hopeless to you or something. There is so much more to build. We are just getting started. The application layer era or infrastructure build outs. There's a lot of opportunities. We are seeing more spin outs from OpenAI, Anthropic, you name it, every single day. [SPEAKER_01] Do we have hundreds of these NeoLabs and vertical models? [SPEAKER_01] No. [SPEAKER_02] Not a big believer in too many of them. [SPEAKER_02] I think you've got to produce some differentiation. [SPEAKER_02] That's the most important thing. [SPEAKER_02] Would you call DeepSeek a NeoLab? No. Why? I think very stupidly for me, I don't call it a NeoLab because I attribute NeoLabs to spin outs from larger labs. [SPEAKER_01] I see. And kind of verticalized, which is probably wrong on both axes, but it's horizontal and it's not a spin out. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. I mean, I kind of like the idea of labs taking a differentiated bet. Okay. If somebody really questions the transformer architecture itself, or somebody really questions needing to build on NVIDIA GPUs or something, foundational bets makes sense. Or somebody questions building for robotics models. I think that's somewhat uncorrelated and different, and that makes sense for a lab, but I feel there are just labs for the sake of being a lab, and I don't think they're going to make it. Can you paint for me the most plausible story where Poplasty becomes a trillion dollar company? [SPEAKER_01] I do like this one. What do you do then? [SPEAKER_01] The orchestration layer? I mean, accuracy and orchestration are two goals that have been consistently true since the beginning of our company. So I think we'll continue to do that. [SPEAKER_02] We'll be orchestrating across devices, chips, models, tools, files, connectors, everything, right? So what would I do once that happens? I don't know. We'll chart our path to 10 trillion. Are you happy now? But are you enjoying this? Of course. [SPEAKER_02] I wouldn't. There are so many things I could be doing if not for this. [SPEAKER_02] And I think the process is what motivates you. [SPEAKER_02] So you asked me somewhere in between, you need to give me a number of where you want. I don't work that way, actually. Like these numbers, getting to 2 trillion or 20 trillion are exciting, but that doesn't motivate me. It's hard to get motivated by wealth. You want to get motivated by impact. Final one: who's the smartest person you've met? [SPEAKER_01] You've met Jensen Huang. [SPEAKER_01] You've met the best of the best. I've been fortunate enough to. Who's the smartest? People are smart in their own ways. It's hard to compare. I don't work that way, actually. For example, these numbers, getting to 2 trillion or 20 trillion are exciting, but that doesn't motivate me. It's hard to get motivated by wealth. You want to get motivated by impact. Who's the smartest person you've met, final one? You've met Jensen Huang. You've met the best of the best. I've been fortunate enough to. [SPEAKER_01] Who's the smartest? [SPEAKER_01] People are smart in their own ways. It's hard to compare. I've met Jensen, Elon, all these guys, and Bezos. What was it meeting Elon? [SPEAKER_02] It's amazing. [SPEAKER_02] Elon's a very focused person. [SPEAKER_02] He might not appear that way on Twitter, with a lot of random tweets, but he's extremely laser sharp focused on whatever he's doing at that moment in time. [SPEAKER_02] Actually, the one skill that as an entrepreneur I would really build from somebody like him, take from somebody like him and have it for myself is that ability to zone out of all the other things happening in your business or other businesses. [SPEAKER_02] And just focus on that limiting problem right now, the bottleneck problem and ignore everything else. It's very hard to do. Even within Perplexity, I cannot just focus on one part of the business alone. It's very difficult. I'm always looking at other things simultaneously. His style is to just always look at the limiting problem and ignore everything else. And that's very hard to do because you actually have to be really good at concentration. You have to be really good at ignoring even important things, which are distractions to your core objective right now. Was Jensen Huang what you thought he'd be? [SPEAKER_01] Far better. [SPEAKER_02] Really? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. Yeah. Jensen is so truth seeking. It's insane. I think he or somebody else told me or read in a book that he is so intense that he wakes up every day and tells himself that he sucks. And he's so intense that he tells everybody around him that they're 30 days away from going out of business. Think about it. [SPEAKER_02] Right? [SPEAKER_02] Right? [SPEAKER_02] Five trillion dollars guaranteed to make $500 billion in revenue in the next two years. [SPEAKER_02] And has the most advanced chips in the world. [SPEAKER_02] And he operates with that mentality that he could be 30 days away from going out of business. That is what it takes to be Jensen Huang. And there's so much to learn from these guys. There's so much to learn. I think there's one aspect of being comfortable where you are, thinking you've made it. That feels good to get here so far. But these guys are not stopping. I don't think Elon wants to stop. But if you look at his pay package for SpaceX, it's structured around creating a colony in Mars with a million inhabitants and building enough compute in space. So that's why it's not motivating to be worth 10 trillion in net worth or something. If he does these things, I'm sure he's going to get there. But it's more motivated around making the impossible things happen. And having that long-term outlook. I think that has been the biggest thing to learn from maybe these two individuals in particular is a lot of people view entrepreneurship as, if it wins, if I win and have a great outcome and I sell my company, I would have generational money. I don't have to work ever again. And then what? You end up just staying at home and your kids will obviously have trust funds and they're not going to get inspired watching their dad. [SPEAKER_02] Play paddle. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_02] You're not going to set the right example for them. They're not going to be able to take your wealth and multiply it because they didn't watch somebody who actually did that. You did it before they were adults. And so I think you always need to be doing something. Jensen said recently that he hopes to die on the job or something. That's the attitude you need to have. You need to work forever. I was so upset, though, when Jensen said if I'd known how hard it was going to be, I wouldn't have done it. [SPEAKER_01] When he did, I don't know if you saw that interview. [SPEAKER_01] I was like, oh. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. I think it's pretty hard, but you don't do it because you do it despite that. I think that's how it works. Aaron, listen, this has been so fantastic. [SPEAKER_01] I so appreciate you taking the time while you're in London. [SPEAKER_01] So thank you so much for joining me. [SPEAKER_01] Appreciate it. Thank you. Like, I don't think Elon wants to stop it. But if you look at his pay package for SpaceX, it's structured around creating a colony in Mars with a million inhabitants and building enough compute in space. So that's why it's not motivating to be worth a 10 trillion in net worth or something. You know, if he does these things, I'm sure he's going to get there. But it's more motivated around, like, making the impossible things happen. And having, like, that long-term outlook. Like, you, I think that has been the biggest thing to learn from maybe these two individuals in particular is a lot of people view this, like, entrepreneurship as, like, oh, if it wins, if I win and have a great outcome and I sell my company, I would have, like, generational money. I don't have to work ever again. And then what? You end up, like, just staying at home and, like, your kids will obviously have, like, trust funds and they're not going to get inspired watching their dad. Play a paddle. Yeah. You know, you're not going to set the right example for them. They're not going to be able to take your wealth and multiply it because they didn't watch somebody who actually did that. You did it before they were, like, adults. And so I think you always need to be doing something. Like, Jensen said recently that he hopes to die on the job or something like that. Like, that's the attitude you need to have. Like, you need to work forever. I was so upset, though, when Jensen said, if I'd known how hard it was going to be, I wouldn't have done it. When he did, I don't know if you saw that into you. I was like, oh. Yeah. I think it's pretty hard, but you don't do it because you do it despite that. I think that's how it works. Aaron, listen, this has been so fantastic to do. I so appreciate you taking the time while you're in London. So thank you so much for joining me. Appreciate it. Thank you.