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The oldest trick in the book to make your first million

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The oldest trick in the book to make your first million
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*Unsexy Business Ideas Database:* https://clickhubspot.com/8an4 Episode 844: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) talk about how one of the richest families in America makes its money. Shout out to Hank Green for his video on Jevon's Paradox - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6sYYrLTOjQ — Show Notes: (0:00) The Cargill family (13:15) projects vs empires (15:00) family meetings create family dynasties (22:55) Jevon's paradox (29:00) the story of Luddites (39:19) Where's the opportunity (49:00) the phrases we tell ourselves (52:00) The ice king — Links: • The Medici effect - https://www.amazon.com/dp/1591391865 • Hank Greene's video on Jevon's Paradox, which heavily inspired ours: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6sYYrLTOjQ. — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton (joinhampton.com): My community for founders. Average member does $25m/year. Many of the guests are members. Get after it...apply: http://joinhampton.com/mfm — Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com • Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents. • Mercury - Shaan uses Mercury across all of his companies. you can too: http://mercury.com/ Mercury is a fintech company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., Members FDIC • I run all my newsletters on Beehiiv and you should too + we're giving away $10k to our favorite newsletter, check it out: beehiiv.com/mfm-challenge My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano /

Summary

Generated by gpt-5.6-terra

At-a-Glance

  • Verdict: Watch fully
  • Core thesis: Durable fortunes are built by owning indispensable bottlenecks, compounding control over time, creating demand around new capabilities, and treating AI-driven abundance as an opportunity to build rather than a threat to endure.
  • Why it matters: The episode offers reusable patterns for AI-era company building: own workflow/logistics control points, expect efficiency to expand demand rather than merely cut costs, and avoid overarchitecting instead of shipping.
  • Best use: Use it as a strategic-pattern session rather than a factual Cargill deep dive: extract the middleman, Jevons-paradox, demand-creation, long-term ownership, and execution lessons for product and operating decisions.

Executive Summary

The episode starts with Cargill as an archetype of quiet, generational dominance. The hosts argue that the supposedly disposable "middleman" can become the most valuable player when it controls a physical or operational choke point: Cargill placed grain storage next to railroads, then expanded outward into transportation, processing, feed, meat, ingredients, commodity hedging, and related inputs. The resulting lesson is not simply to broker transactions, but to own the infrastructure, coordination, data, and risk-management layer that makes a market work.

The central AI argument uses Jevons paradox: when a technology makes a resource cheaper or more efficient, total use of that resource may rise because new demand and use cases emerge. The hosts believe AI will make code far cheaper, but that this will increase the amount of software built and work attempted—potentially creating more economic activity and new jobs even while disrupting specific roles. They connect this to NVIDIA's argument that increasingly efficient AI training can coexist with an enormous expansion in inference demand.

They do not claim disruption will be painless. Historical examples—industrial textile workers, telephone operators, and cotton production after the cotton gin—are used to show that local labor displacement and social turmoil can be real even if the longer-run economy expands. Their practical stance is that individuals, especially those with low sunk costs, should build AI fluency and move toward emerging demand rather than adopt a passive anti-technology posture.

The closing entrepreneurial lesson comes from Frederick Tudor, the "Ice King." Tudor did not merely transport ice; he created the desire for it by giving bartenders free ice so customers experienced chilled drinks. That reinforces a product/GTM principle: novel capabilities do not sell themselves; find the compelling end experience or hero use case that teaches customers why they should care. The final operational admonition is to stop designing elaborate systems around work and instead attempt the direct solution first: "the only way out is through."

Key Takeaways

  • Claim: The best middlemen do not merely take a spread; they become hard-to-replace control planes by owning the bottleneck where supply, logistics, storage, information, and risk meet. | Evidence: Cargill began by building grain elevators beside railroads, allowing farmers to store or sell crops, then extended into barges, shipbuilding, processing, animal feed, meatpacking, ingredients, salt, commodity hedging, and upstream chemicals/minerals. The hosts cite roughly $150 billion in annual revenue and Cargill's control of about 25% of U.S. grain exports. | Implication: For AI operations and software, look for the equivalent of a grain elevator: a layer that aggregates fragmented participants and becomes embedded in routing, orchestration, data movement, compliance, settlement, or reliability—not just a thin marketplace interface. | Caveat: The company-specific figures and broad supply-chain assertions are discussed conversationally and should not be treated as diligence-grade evidence without independent verification.
  • Claim: Long-lived private empires preserve control by reinvesting heavily, separating ownership from daily management, and creating governance systems that outlast any one operator. | Evidence: The hosts describe Cargill as 88% family-owned, with an "80-20" approach in which 80% of profits are reinvested and 20% distributed; professional CEOs now run the company. They compare this with the Hearst family's legal trust structure and Rockefeller-style intergenerational stewardship. | Implication: If building for decades rather than an exit, design capital-allocation rules, succession mechanisms, operating autonomy, and ownership protections early; do not rely on founder temperament or heirs continuing to operate the business. | Caveat: Family governance is not presented as a guarantee: the hosts explicitly note that personal and family outcomes can remain unpredictable despite deliberate culture and systems.
  • Claim: Jevons paradox is a useful default for AI: cheaper code or intelligence may expand total demand far more than efficiency reduces labor or compute use. | Evidence: The hosts cite James Jevons's observation that more efficient steam engines increased rather than reduced coal consumption; they also use the cotton gin, printing press, and railroads as examples where lower production costs produced much larger markets. Their AI application is that lower software-production costs should lead to vastly more software and new use cases. | Implication: Plan capacity, product, and investment strategy around demand expansion: inexpensive agents and code may create more workflows, more users, more inference calls, and more operational complexity—not simply leaner engineering organizations. | Caveat: This is an analogy and directional thesis, not a forecast. AI is more general-purpose than prior single-function technologies, so it could automate portions of the new demand as well as create it.
  • Claim: The valuable AI-side pick-and-shovel opportunity may be inference demand, because broad deployment multiplies the number of model queries even as models become more efficient. | Evidence: One host references Jensen Huang's argument that training efficiency will improve but inference demand could rise by an extraordinary amount—described in the conversation as "1 million X." The hosts analogize this to the unforeseeable scale of text creation and consumption after the printing press. | Implication: Prioritize systems that benefit from widespread agent usage: inference routing, reliability, observability, evaluation, memory/data infrastructure, permissions, cost controls, and vertical workflow execution. | Caveat: The numerical claim is cited rhetorically, without source detail, and should not be used for infrastructure sizing or investment underwriting as stated.
  • Claim: New technology creates real transitional losses, but resisting an irreversible platform shift is strategically inferior to adapting faster than the market. | Evidence: The hosts cite Luddites destroying textile machinery, the disappearance of roughly 800,000 U.S. telephone-operator jobs, and resistance to ATMs; they argue that ATMs were followed by more bank branches and that disruption can coexist with new categories of employment and company creation. | Implication: Treat AI adoption as a capability race. Build practical literacy, revise workflows now, and identify where new demand will appear; do not make policy or company plans on the assumption that AI deployment can be meaningfully wished away. | Caveat: The discussion understates distributional consequences: aggregate job creation does not ensure that displaced workers can easily transition, nor that gains accrue evenly.
  • Claim: For unfamiliar products or newly possible capabilities, the GTM problem is often demand creation, not distribution alone. | Evidence: Frederick Tudor shipped New England ice to warm climates before refrigeration, but buyers initially did not understand its value. He reportedly seeded demand by giving ice to bartenders so consumers experienced chilled rum; customer desire then made the ice trade viable. | Implication: For agentic products, lead with a vivid, repeatable outcome—not generic access to AI. Identify the "cold drink" moment that makes users immediately prefer the new workflow, then make adoption frictionless. | Caveat: Tudor ultimately helped create the conditions for replacement technologies that collapsed the natural-ice trade, illustrating that category creation does not ensure permanent ownership.
  • Claim: Overarchitecting is frequently a sophisticated form of avoidance; direct execution should precede tooling, process design, and optimization. | Evidence: Sean recounts advice from Emmett Shear of Twitch/YC: "Have you tried solving the problem?" and "the only way out is through." His example is delaying a short run to acquire accessories rather than simply running. | Implication: In AI systems work, time-box architecture and build the smallest end-to-end working workflow first; add orchestration, dashboards, and abstractions only after the core task has been proven in production-like use.

Detailed Brief

Cargill as a model of quiet dominance

  • Claims: The hosts frame obscurity as strategic rather than accidental: Cargill's low public profile reduced attention from competitors and made its scale harder for outsiders to understand.; They distinguish a project-oriented entrepreneurial career—starting, selling, and moving on—from an empire-oriented approach focused on maintaining one institution across generations.; A business can become difficult to sell precisely because it has accumulated an idiosyncratic collection of assets that creates value together but lacks an obvious single acquirer.
  • Evidence: They describe a 1980 survey in which 94% of farmers had heard of Cargill but only half understood what it did; among politicians, lawyers, and journalists, 50% had heard of it and only 10% understood the business.; Cargill is described as having started roughly 160 years ago and continuing to employ professional management rather than family operators.; The hosts characterize its former headquarters as a low-profile "lake office" rather than a public-facing corporate monument.
  • Caveats: Scale and vertical integration can produce material harms and scrutiny. The hosts mention allegations relating to child labor, worker safety, E. coli outbreaks, and monopolistic behavior, without investigating them.; They also characterize Cargill's crop intelligence as exceptionally strong, but do not substantiate the comparison to government intelligence capabilities.
  • Implications: Quiet category ownership can be more defensible than visible brand leadership when the business occupies infrastructure and coordination layers customers depend on.; The tradeoff of vertical integration is that operational failures, ethical risks, and regulatory exposure can propagate across the portfolio rather than remain isolated.

Family culture and governance as a durability system

  • Claims: The hosts argue that multi-generation continuity requires explicit culture, not merely implicit family norms.; They advocate treating the family partly like an institution: recurring meetings, transparent discussion of resources and goals, stated values, and shared decision processes.; They distinguish social trust from legal trust, arguing that long-term ownership structures need both relational respect and enforceable rules.
  • Evidence: Examples include a friend-made family crest with four stated values, recurring family meetings modeled loosely on board meetings, and individualized family phrases intended to reinforce children's identities.; The Hearst trust is described as using fixed family representation on the board, equal distributions, and strong penalties for disputing its terms.
  • Caveats: The hosts acknowledge that formal values or family systems cannot solve every personal problem or guarantee family alignment.
  • Implications: For founder-controlled organizations, governance design should address the period after the founder is no longer the sole source of judgment—especially allocation rights, control rights, professional management, and conflict resolution.

How to interpret historical analogies for AI

  • Claims: The hosts' view is that history provides recurring behavioral patterns, not a precise template: fear, resistance, demand expansion, and complementary inventions recur, while timing and outcomes remain uncertain.; They propose a rough model for disruption duration: breadth of technological impact multiplied by intensity of impact multiplied by the time required for complementary inventions.; They contrast technologies that saturate after a finite need is met, such as household hot water, with electricity-like technologies that become a general substrate for countless uses. They suspect code may behave more like the latter.
  • Evidence: Railroads are used as an example of a broad transformation that took decades because steel, track, and complementary infrastructure had to be built.; They argue ChatGPT's unusually rapid adoption could make the AI adjustment period shorter than past industrial transitions.
  • Caveats: The hosts concede they cannot determine the exact timing, mechanism, or duration of AI's disruptive period.; Whether the relevant expandable unit is "code," "intelligence," or something else remains unresolved within the discussion.
  • Implications: Avoid both simplistic historical claims: neither "this time is entirely different" nor "it will unfold exactly like prior industrial technologies" is sufficient for decision-making.; The most useful question is where complementary infrastructure and workflows are still missing, because those bottlenecks may govern both the duration of disruption and the opportunities created.

Notable Concepts & Terms

  • Middleman at planetary scale: The Cargill pattern: capture disproportionate value by owning the market's indispensable storage, logistics, coordination, and risk layer rather than producing only the underlying commodity.
  • 80-20 rule (Cargill, as described): A capital-allocation model in which most profits are reinvested to compound the enterprise while a minority is distributed to owners.
  • Jevons paradox: Efficiency can increase total consumption because lower cost unlocks demand; the hosts use it to argue AI may expand software, inference, and work rather than merely eliminate jobs.
  • Inference: The compute consumed when a deployed model answers queries or performs work; presented as a potentially much larger AI demand driver than training efficiency alone suggests.
  • Luddites / Ned Ludd: A historical reference to workers resisting mechanization; used to frame technological resistance as a recurring but ineffective response to platform shifts.
  • Hero product: The concrete experience that makes an abstract new capability desirable; Tudor's chilled drink was the hero use case that taught customers why ice mattered.
  • Empire versus projects: A choice between building and exiting multiple bounded ventures versus creating a durable institution designed to persist across generations.
  • The only way out is through: An execution heuristic against procrastination through tooling or architecture: solve the direct problem before creating an elaborate system around it.

Operator Notes / Why Ken Should Care

  • Audit current AI/agent opportunities for control-plane potential: identify where a product can own routing, permissions, auditability, reliability, data movement, cost governance, or settlement rather than remain a replaceable interface.
  • For each AI workflow, estimate the Jevons effect explicitly: if task cost falls by 10x, model the new users, query frequency, workflow variants, and inference/operations burden that could emerge instead of assuming workload contraction.
  • Choose one agent product or internal workflow and define its equivalent of Tudor's "cold drink": a single demonstrable outcome that makes customers immediately prefer the AI-enabled process.
  • Create a build rule for early-stage initiatives: no additional architecture/tooling investment until a minimal end-to-end workflow has attempted the real task with actual users or data.
  • Separate long-horizon ownership decisions from operating decisions: document reinvestment policy, delegation boundaries, succession contingencies, and conflict-resolution mechanisms if the goal is a durable platform rather than a near-term exit.
  • Monitor AI-policy and infrastructure constraints—especially data-center power, water, permitting, and public backlash—as potential friction in the inference-growth thesis rather than assuming demand alone determines deployment.

Source/Metadata

  • Title: The oldest trick in the book to make your first million
  • Transcript words: 13583
  • Duration seconds: 3073
  • Timestamp note: No timestamps or chapters were present in the supplied transcript. The transcript also contains substantial repeated passages, especially in the latter half.

Transcript

10293 words en Processed in 374.5s

When I Googled this family, the words that came up were silent dominance. Middlemen at planetary scale. All right, Sam, I have a Billy of the Week for you. An MFM classic. This is not just any Billy of the Week. This is one of the biggest Billies in America. One that I wasn't really aware of. I think you will know more than me about this. But I would say most people don't. Wait, can I guess? Let me tell you three things about it. Then you can take a guess. Okay. All right. It is the largest private company in America for the last 40 years. It is owned 88% by the family and has produced more billionaires in one family than any other company ever. They do more revenue than Goldman Sachs, Nike, and Starbucks combined. Oh, is it Mars or Coke? You're in the right neighborhood. Estée Lauder? Okay, you left the neighborhood briefly. Come back to the other neighborhood of rich redneck families of America. It is Cargill. Oh, yes. So the Cargill family. I didn't really know anything about this family. Can I just tell you a little bit about their story and what they do? Because this is a dominant business story of all time. Wait, first, tell me, why did this interest you? Why did this catch your attention? Remember when I was at your house and you were like, there's this closet here, by the way, that we found. There's this extra storage room that we didn't even know about until we lived here for two months. That's how I felt finding out that one of the wealthiest families in America existed, and I didn't know their story. Okay. As the host of My First Million, I just felt like I needed to right a wrong. Okay, I understand. And by the way, how did I find it? There was a Reddit thread that was, tell me about billion-dollar industries that I probably don't know about. And it was, the first one was sand, and the second one was this, and the third one was this. Reinsurance. It's, there are insurance companies, and then they buy insurance. That's called reinsurance. And then the reinsurance, guess what? They have reinsurance companies behind them. It's just insurance all the way down, baby. And so I was reading through this thread, and then one was Cargill. And I was, oh, Cargill. So what they did, the story is, back in the day, as America was getting its feet under it and railroads had started to get built, farmers needed to offload their crops, their grain, and they needed to sell them. So they could either sell it individually, so the farm could try to sell individually to a buyer and figure out how to transport it there, or they could work with a middleman. And so Cargill became the biggest middleman on the planet for initially storing grain. So they would go right next to where the railroad was, and they would build what's called a grain elevator, which is basically a giant storage facility for grain so that it wouldn't spoil very quickly. And the farmers could come drop it off. They would get a coat check. They'd get an IOU that says, I will pay you when your grain sells. Or they would just buy it at a flat rate, wholesale, and be able to flip it. So you could choose, as the farmer, which one you wanted to do. This is what my father does for a living, by the way. Oh, so maybe you should have known. He does it with onions. Onions. But yes, my father's a broker. That's what he does. Does he store, or does he just call one side and say, hey, I got 75 bushels of kilograms? It's fresh produce, so the storage is a day. But yes, there is a place where they sit for 24 hours before a truck comes and gets it. Yeah, but yes. And what's interesting about this for me from a business perspective is you always hear this idea of, you don't want to be the middleman. You can always cut out the middleman. And in this case, the middleman became worth more than everybody else. And actually, if you look at many businesses, there are many businesses where the middleman becomes quite a valuable business. And so there's an interesting question of why. And in this case, it's because the middleman was physically in the middle. They literally built the grain elevators that would store the stuff right next to the railroad. And so you needed to transport it. You needed to get to the railroad. Who else had it? Nobody else was going to build that. So anyway, they start doing that. They then go further and further and further. At one point, they're, hey, these shipping barges are so inefficient when we're shipping the grain when it's not traveling by rail. So we'll build our own shipyard, our own ships. They end up producing ships for the U.S. Navy. They bought the biggest poultry company, and now they control a huge percentage of the meat industry, of the grain industry. And so they've built this empire. And nobody really knows them. And basically, it's just a family that owns this thing. 88% owned by the family. There's 20 or something billionaires in the family now. They have this rule called the 80-20 rule. So 80% of all profits will get reinvested back in the business. 20 goes out as dividends to the family. And they hire, for the last 20 years or so, professional CEOs to run the company. It's not family-run anymore. And the profit per year, according to Wikipedia, I think it's $5 or $6 billion. Yeah, that was during the peak COVID stuff, when Ukraine was getting attacked. Ukraine produces a lot of grain, and so their prices spiked. I think it's $3 billion in a normal year right now. Okay. So close to $1 billion a year of profit goes straight to the family. And it's been doing that for 50-plus years. And so I want to tell you a little bit of something interesting. So first I was, what do they actually do? Because when these corporations get so large, they just have their hand in everything. And you would see these comments, they're just everything on your plate. Anything you eat in a package, Cargill had a hand in it. They're controlling the food supply. People think of Monsanto-style evil companies. And so I want to read you this paragraph. So, imagine you eat a hamburger. Cargill probably sold the farmer the seed and the fertilizer to grow the grain. They bought the grain from the farmer and stored it at their grain elevator. They shipped it on their barge that they built in ships that they built to a processing plant where it's processed into animal feed. And then they feed that to cattle, which they then slaughter. They then store the meat at their meatpacking plants. They sell the beef to the restaurant. By the way, the restaurant has to buy their salt. They sell all of the salt to all of the fast food chains in the country. And then the corn syrup that they processed out of the corn gets put into the ketchup. The soybean oil that's used for the fries. The starch that's used in the milkshake. That's all Cargill. And isn't it crazy how one company can have a hand in so much of your day-to-day life? And when you think you're eating at some farm-to-table restaurant, you're really not escaping them. Because they control the underlying ingredients that are used. The fertilizer, the seeds, the grains. All of it that gets fed to the cows. It all goes back to the source. And isn't that incredible? And the family is so big and so profitable, they also own a thing called Garta Capital Partners, which is a $10 billion-plus hedge fund. Correct. Because they have to hedge commodities on behalf of the farmers and for themselves as well at this point. So they own a little bit of everything, including mines. Because they need to get their own chemicals and minerals to make all of these things. This is incredible. No famous founder. Their office was famously this chateau-looking thing on a lake in the middle of nowhere. That was their office. It was called the lake office, if you Google it. And it's just quiet. How they say, money talks, but wealth whispers? This is wealth whispers stuff. Who's the founder? And it's just quiet. How they say, money talks, but wealth whispers? This is wealth whispers shit. Who's the founder? And isn't that incredible? And the family is so big and so profitable. They also own a thing called Garta Capital Partners, which is a $10 billion-plus-size hedge fund. Correct. Because they have to hedge commodities on behalf of the farmers and for themselves as well at this point. So they own a little bit of everything, including mines. Because they need to get their own chemicals and minerals to make all of these things. This is incredible. No famous founder. Their office was famously this chateau-looking thing on a lake in the middle of nowhere. And that was their, it was called the lake office, if you Google it. And it's just quiet. How they say, money talks, but wealth whispers? This is wealth whispers shit. What do I mean? Who's the founder? What does he look like? Who's the CEO? What do they talk about? How come they're not on CNBC? Do they do podcasts? No, they don't do podcasts. What do I mean? It is true, quiet dominance. And actually, it was part of their strategy for a long time to be quiet about it, just to not attract competition and to build this monopoly position in the logistics industry. Dude, this is cool. I've seen their logo. And whenever I look at the largest privately owned companies in America, it's always been there. I never understood entirely what they did because it's one of those things where you say what they do, and it makes sense, but it's a B2B thing. So you don't entirely understand exactly what it does. And they say they sell chemicals. And I'm like, I don't know what that means. That's so vague. But when you look at the numbers, they do $150 billion a year in revenue. That's just so massive. And I bet you that they own so many more things that you wouldn't even realize. For example, the Walmart family owns, have you heard of Rafa? It's a cool bike D2C company. They own that? They own that. They're just rich people. They're just deal men. They just own shit. They just go to the website to buy one, and then they just keep pushing plus on quantity until they own all of them. Like, we now have the shop. That seems like something that this family would do. You don't realize it. And then if you wanted to get conspiratorial, which I have not done any research on, I'm sure that there's 10 or 20 really interesting conspiracies about how either they're pulling the strings behind, you know. It's like there's something going on with this family, which I'm just making up. I have no idea. A journalist once described the family as secretive, inbred, and suspicious. I'm in. Hey, I want to tell you about something pretty cool. We have a database of all of the business ideas that have been discussed on this podcast. So hundreds of episodes the team at HubSpot went through. They pulled out all the simple, relatable, interesting, profitable ideas that we have brainstormed. And they're all available for download for free. Just click the link in the description below. Thank you to our friends at HubSpot for sponsoring this podcast and putting together this free resource for you guys. Back to the show. In 1980, they did a survey. And by then, it was already a dominant company. And they did a survey: 94% of farmers had heard of Cargill, but only half of them knew what the company actually did. And then amongst politicians, lawyers, and journalists, who they call opinion leaders, 50% had heard of them, but only 10% understood what the business was. Because they have this sprawling empire, like you described, people don't really fully understand what they even do. You just know that they're important. I had a friend who, I think it was Cargill, that she went and worked at because they obviously make so much profit that they were trying to invest in new seed-related, agriculture-related D2C. I think they invested, we had talked about that one D2C milk company. They would look at things like that, anything interesting. And she said it was awesome working for them. She said it was a great company. Well, definitely. There's a section called the dark side in my notes here. So let me just tell you some things from the dark side, just to be fair here. When you have global crop production, you're going to have this, which is accusations of child labor, like in Brazil or in Ivory Coast and things like that. They're said to have better intelligence than the CIA. So they have a spy network around crops. So they know more about the state of crops in real time than the U.S. government does around the world because it's life or death for their business. They've had different E. coli breakouts and stuff like that. Again, if you're touching most of the food supply, then anything bad that can happen in food is going to happen to you. People just generally feel like they're monopolistic. So do they care about worker safety, number one? Probably not. Probably not in the top three things that they care about. But they're Midwesterners. They're probably really sweet. But it's crazy to go from a single grain shed to now controlling 25% of the entire U.S. export market for grains. And it's pretty crazy. So it started 160 years ago. You and I did a talk recently, and we were explaining some of our preferences. You were like, I like projects. I like starting something and then potentially selling it. But I love the starting phase. I love handing it off to someone. And then I love it potentially ending and starting something new. And I was saying how I love things that could potentially go for 50 to 100 years. Not that I've actually done that. I've actually done the same thing as you: projects, starting and selling. And I'm so fascinated by companies that can last this long. And this one in particular is one that seems like they've kept it together pretty amazingly for 160 years. That's crazy. So they started before the Civil War, and it's still around. Isn't that incredible? And I just find that so fascinating. And part of me is like, well, when I die, why do I care about legacy? We talk about legacy a lot. And I was reading something the other day, and someone said to them, why do you care about your legacy? Who gives a shit? You're dead. And I was like, okay, yeah. I understand that perspective. We can have the dichotomy of caring about that and then also how cool would it be that the thing that you can create can employ 160,000 people 150 years after you're gone? I don't know. I think that's awesome. I think it's romantic and exciting. It's kind of like two people can love running. And one person is trying to run the 100-meter dash, and the other person is running one of these ultramarathon 100-mile races. And they're both like, yeah, I love running, and that's what I do. And that's kind of like, in the business sense, there are different ways to approach it. There's what I call the projects approach, which is you go in knowing, hey, I'm going to have five great at-bats in my career. And I hope each one is a really fun chapter. And I'm going to seek variety in those. It's like being an author. You're like, all right, I got five years of research and writing and then a break, and then I do it again. Exactly. And then there are other people that are brick by brick laying a foundation for an empire. And I respect both, but I know which one I want to do. And I think you know which one you want to do too. I think you want the empire. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to have the grit to pull it off, but I for sure love the idea of the result. Do you think the people who do this, is it a temperament difference? Like they're wired differently, therefore, fast-twitch, slow-twitch muscle type shit, where it's more inherently who you are? Or do you feel like you might have the base wiring to do it, but you then need to adopt the systems, right? For example, it's not like one guy ran this for 100 years. He passed it to his son. His son screws it up. Then the next son saves it out of bankruptcy. And then by now, professional CEOs run it, but they've instilled values and systems and ownership controls. And I think you know which one you want to do, too. I think you want the empire. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to have the grit to pull it off, but I for sure love the idea of the result. Do you think the people who do this, is it a temperament difference? They're wired differently. Therefore, fast twitch, slow twitch muscle type shit, where it's more inherently who you are. Or do you feel like you might have the base wiring to do it, but you then need to adopt the systems, right? For example, it's not like one guy ran this for 100 years. Now he passed it to his son. His son screws it up. Then the next son saves it out of bankruptcy. And then by now, professional CEOs run it, but they've instilled values and systems and ownership controls. And I think you know which one you want to do, too. I think you want the empire. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to have the grit to pull it off, but I for sure love the idea of the result. Do you think the people who do this, is it a temperament difference? They're wired differently. Therefore, fast-twitch, slow-twitch muscle type shit, where it's more inherently who you are. Or do you feel like you might have the base wiring to do it, but you then need to adopt the systems, right? For example, it's not like one guy ran this for 100 years. Now he passed it to his son. His son screws it up. Then the next son saves it out of bankruptcy. And then by now, professional CEOs run it, but they've instilled values and systems and ownership controls. But now the heirs are marine biologists and they're doing other things. They're not running this company, but the company, the entity, lasts. So which one, where do you think you might fail? Is it the wiring or the systems? I think the wiring, you start off a certain way, but not always. For example, I think there's a lot of them that would have sold if they could have, but the opportunity just didn't present itself. And they just said, screw it, I'll just keep going. And then I think what happens a lot of times is a few things. If you had to build a business and you never thought about selling, there's a world where you would do some wacky stuff that would make the business incredibly profitable, but incredibly not sellable. You would acquire assets or businesses that don't entirely make sense to one particular buyer. And then you get big enough to the point where you're like, this is a hodgepodge of stuff and it works for us, but no one buyer would ever actually take this. But then I also think that it comes down a lot to the family. And I think that there's something special around family meetings. We've had Rob Dierdrich on here. He talked about that. I actually follow some people on Instagram, and they talk about family meetings. Explain what you mean. What is a family meeting? So the way that I grew up is probably very similar to the way potentially you grew up, but the way a lot of Americans grew up, which is your parents never talked to you about money. If you asked them, how much do you make, they would say, that's none of your business. And there was very little transparency, and there was probably very little culture creation in terms of, here's explicitly my expectations of you. Here's our family's culture. Here's our values. And what I've been learning about, and frankly what I like, is this idea of a family meeting where you get the children and everyone in the same room, monthly, quarterly, annually, something like that. And in the same way you run a board meeting, you run a family meeting where you say, here's the values that we stand for. Here's how we did last quarter, last month, according to what we said we wanted to achieve. And what about the future? What would you guys like to do? Let's talk about this. And here's the money that we have to spend on whatever dreams and ideas that you have. And let's discuss if it fits within our family credo and mission. And there's actually a way to do that. And I aspire to do that with my family. My family is taking minutes, taking meeting minutes, a board observer. I just think there's something special about being explicit about stuff. I think that a lot of times when you're growing up, there's these things that you say, well, we never really talked about blank, but my feeling was this. But what I would like to experience is saying, we are actually going to speak what we intend to do and how we will do it and what resources we have to get it done. And we'll have a conversation. And I think there's something very special about the families who pull that off. Yeah, I totally agree. I think it's explicit versus implicit. So it's not even like, don't talk about that. It's more just it didn't get said, right? And it doesn't get said not for malicious or secretive reasons. It's just we were busy. I don't know myself what, it's like, I'm not sure I really know the answer to all these things. And it's easier to just not even think about it, right? It's like if you ask somebody, well, what do you really want? Watch people just immediately start to flounder. And it's such a simple question. Don't you think you should know what you really want? When I'm meeting new people and I want to make them feel like I care about them. It sounds like I'm being nefarious, but I mean I'm trying to get to know someone. I'm like, hey, in the next six months, anything interesting you want to get done in life or career or family-wise? And half the time people are like, I don't know. And it's like the conversation is them discovering it. And it's kind of exciting. Yeah, exactly. So I think being explicit, I'm like you, I'm an over-communicator. I'll take the negatives that come with that because I think the positives are so overwhelming. But how do you do it in a family is kind of interesting. I was at a friend's house and he has this crest on the wall. And he's like, oh, that's our family crest. And I was like, oh, my family, we didn't have one. I guess my ancestors dropped the ball. He's like, no, we made this. I painted that five years ago. And we just decided, what are we all about? There's four quadrants on the crest, and we said, it's this, this, this, and this. And this is our sigil. That's our animal. I love that. And I was like, you could just do that. You could just be a university. I could be Hogwarts right now. The hell? And I came home and I was like, shit, I'm going to start doing stuff like this. And so I actually haven't made the crest, but I have done a few other things. For each of my kids, they have a way. It'd be like Sam's way. So for example, one of my kids, one of them says, try, try, and figure it out. Oh, that's the Sam way. And I've said that so many times that now the great father moment is when he'll just be like, well, I just did it. I just did it the Sam way. And he's using it as shorthand for, I didn't give up. I tried it until I figured it out. And my daughter has a different one that's really beautiful. And then we have one for the idea of gifts. So I told them, I was like, yeah, everybody has some gifts that you were given. And my son loves Pokemon and things like this, so he understands the idea that you have a superpower. And every character he watches in a show has a special power. I'm like, yeah, well, you have one too. He's like, really? What's mine? And I'm like, well, yours is that you're this. And I just get to declare. I give them a reputation to live up to, one that they're today quite inconsistent in. But there are moments. And all I do is I just highlight those moments. I pretend the inconsistencies don't exist. And I just keep reinforcing that until it's their identity. And I do that for each of them individually. And then one of the downsides is I make one sound so good. I'm like, Dwight, can I just say that the other one has the same? Because then it feels less special. I have to give the other one equally those. But you can also do, it's a little tricky. It's not perfect. But man, this shit works. It is really powerful. And so there's a version of that that's completely non-business related, but in creating this family dynasty idea of how do you instill a culture first in the home before you ever try to go do it in the office. And I think the likelihood that anyone's children will ever want to work in their business is very low. And if that even happens, and they get along, that's a miracle. And so what I've noticed, that is important. Also, creating long-term trust. So I talked about this a little bit with the Hearst organization, Hearst Company, which owns GQ. It's a famous magazine they own, but they also own a hundred businesses that you've never even heard of. And they, including they own half of ESPN or whatever. It's not perfect. But man, this shit works. It is really powerful. It's not perfect. But man, this shit works. It is really powerful. And so there's a version of that that's completely non-business related, but in creating this family dynasty idea of how do you instill a culture first in the home before you ever try to go do it in the office. And I think the likelihood that anyone's children will ever want to work in their business is very low. And if that even happens, and they get along, that's a miracle. And so what I've noticed, that is important. Also, creating long-term trust. So I talked about this a little bit with the Hearst organization, Hearst Company, which owns GQ. It's a famous magazine they own, but they also own a hundred businesses that you've never even heard of. And they own half of ESPN or whatever. It's not perfect. But man, this shit works. It is really powerful. And so there's a version of that that's completely non-business related. But in creating this family dynasty idea of how do you instill a culture first in the home before you ever try to go do it in the office. And I think the likelihood that anyone's children will ever want to work in their business is very low. And so if that even happens, I think, and they get along, that's a miracle. And so what I've noticed, that is important. Also, creating long-term trust. So I talked about this a little bit with the Hearst organization, Hearst Company, which owns GQ. It's a famous magazine they own, but they also own a hundred businesses that you've never even heard of. And they own half of ESPN or whatever. And one of William Randolph Hearst, one of his great inventions was he created this trust within the family that was pretty ironclad. And it was very long-term thinking. Trust like an actual legal trust? Or you mean trust like the feeling? Legal trust. So for example, for him, it was like, you cannot dispute this trust. And if you do dispute it, you're out of the will. And the trust basically just says that Hearst, I forget the exact number, but Hearst hypothetically will have eight board seats. Family members are always two. I think it was like, you cannot argue with how much money you receive. Money is given out equally. If you want more profits, you cannot argue about it. If you do argue about it, you're out. Things like that. He did these things that were quite good in terms of making it last for a long time. Same with John Rockefeller. He did that the same way. One of the great things about reading about John Rockefeller, he was this madman businessman. Think of Jeff Bezos. He was a polite guy, but a ruthless businessman. His son, John, also John, he was a great dad. They were both great. He was a great dad and a great son. And they loved each other very much. And they showed a lot of mutual respect. And so what I'm noticing about a lot of this stuff, it's built on mutual respect. It's built about empowering and having these very explicit conversations. And that was a big takeaway from reading about him. Yeah, it's interesting. You got to find these blueprints. It's what I went back to when I was asking you about the long-term thing. You have to get to know your wiring to know where you're going to naturally have things come easier to you that are difficult for others, and other areas that are going to be difficult for you. And you better figure out how you're going to work around it, either by patching up those weaknesses or getting people around you who complement those. And then you got to learn the systems on top of it. What are the habits? What are the actual systems on top of that to get the results I want? But then there's a wild card. For example, I have a billionaire friend whose son is a homeless drug addict. They've tried numerous times to get this kid on the right path to the point where they're like, we're either, we just got to let you figure it out. And unfortunately, that might mean death, but it's a very challenging, tragic situation. The family crest didn't help. Yeah. It's pretty crazy. You could have, I think, what's the phrase? You're the happiest of your saddest kid. Yeah. You're only as happy as your saddest child. Yeah. I went on this rant about phrases and why they're really important. The phrases we tell ourselves. So for example, using the phrase, I might as well, where it's like, well, I've already eaten bad today. I might as well eat. It's like, no, that's just a convenient phrase. You should not might as well do that. Or it is what it is, is my favorite one. It is what it is, is the complete surrender of power, of agency, of anything. It is what it is. Just replace it with, just say, it is what I make of this. So then you say, all right, what am I going to make of this? It is what it is. It's crazy. Can I tell you about a phrase that you unfortunately need to know about and you're going to see everywhere online? I also want to rebrand it. So this thing is called the Jevons paradox. Have you heard of the Jevons paradox? It's not even a paradox. A paradox means, an example of a paradox is, can God heat a burrito so hot that even he can't eat it? This is more like. What's that paradox called? The retard's paradox? That's a paradox. This isn't even a paradox. It's just an economic principle. Okay. Okay, here, let me read it. Let me read the actual definition. An economic principle stating that as technology makes use of a resource more efficiently, the total consumption of that resource actually increases rather than decreases. Okay. So as something becomes more efficient, you would think you're using less of it because you're being more efficient, but in total, you use way more of it because the demand explodes. Okay. And I'll give you a ton of examples. I want to rebrand it to Jevons paradox because. Give it a little flavor. Yeah. Well, because it was created by this guy named James Jevin, who was a British guy. And I think that'd be cool to have a wonderful economic principle be created by an American brother. So I want it to be one of ours, not one of theirs. So right around the mid-1800s, James Watt creates this new thing. It's a new variation of the steam engine, which is basically the steam engine that everyone came to love and know. James Jevin was basically this guy in the 1800s. He wrote a book in 1865 called The Coal Question. And he basically says, I have a feeling that because of how amazing this new steam engine is, that Britain potentially is going to get rid of all of our cheap coal and we're going to have a problem. We're going to have a coal shortage because everyone else was like, what are you talking about? The steam engine makes things significantly more efficient. Therefore, there's only a set amount of work that needs to get done. We're just going to use less coal. And he goes, no, brother, that ain't going to happen. We're going to use way more coal because everyone's going to want one of these steam engines. And he was exactly right. And this is where things get really freaky. And this is actually what I want to talk about. It expands in a way that you cannot even comprehend. And so let me give you a really simple example. Eli Whitney. He was this guy from Yale, and he was like, I want to make it rich. I have this idea. So he goes down to the South of America. At the time, slaves would pick cotton, and they would get cotton, and it would take them hours to separate the seed from the cotton to the point where they could only produce about a pound a day of cotton that was usable, one person. And he comes up with this little handheld device where you can put cotton in there and crank it, and it gets the seeds out to the point where one slave could produce 50 pounds of cotton. They made it 50 times more efficient. And so some people were happy in a weird way. They thought, okay, maybe this might mean slavery won't continue to grow and that we won't import more slaves. That's kind of good. The exact opposite happened. Over the next 30, 40, 50 years, cotton got so cheap that in the South of America, particularly in Mississippi where slavery eventually got really bad, they actually started calling it King Cotton instead of King George. And so America's best export was cotton. And it got so strong that we had to import eight to 10 times more slaves than we currently had at that point, pre-Eli Whitney, in order to keep up with all this demand for cotton. And one could argue that the reason why slavery in America lasted as long as it did was because of cotton and the demand. And that's one of the reasons why it was our economic engine. And so this thing, this idea of this paradox, it's quite strong. And so the reason why it's relevant right now is because what's one product that AI is making significantly more efficient? Code. That's good. The exact opposite happened. Over the next 30, 40, 50 years, cotton got so cheap that in the South of America, particularly in Mississippi where slavery eventually got really bad, they actually started calling it King Cotton instead of King George. And so America's best export was cotton. And it got so strong that we had to import eight to 10 times more slaves than we had at that point, pre-Eli Whitney, in order to keep up with all this demand for cotton. And one could argue that the reason why slavery in America lasted as long as it did was because of cotton and the demand. And that's one of the reasons why it was our economic engine. And so this thing, this idea of this paradox, is quite strong. And so the reason why it's relevant right now is because what's one product that AI is making significantly more efficient? Code. Previously, code was very expensive to make. So you have to raise all of this money from venture capital. You have to hire all these engineers. You got to make stuff. And hopefully, three, five, 10 years later, that code is actually working and makes a profit. Well, Javon's paradox comes into play here because my opinion is this. We had at that point, pre-Eli Whitney, in order to keep up with all this demand for cotton. And one could argue that the reason why slavery in America lasted as long as it did was because of cotton and the demand. And that's one of the reasons why it was our economic engine. And so this thing, this idea of this paradox, is quite strong. And so the reason why it's relevant right now is because what's one product that AI is making significantly more efficient? Code. Previously, code was very expensive to make. So you have to raise all of this money from venture capital. You have to hire all these engineers. You got to make stuff. And hopefully, three, five, 10 years later, that code is actually working and makes a profit. Well, Javon's paradox comes into play here because my opinion is this. A lot of people are saying that AI is going to put people out of work. I think it is the exact opposite. I believe that code will get cheaper. Therefore, demand will increase a significant amount, to the point that we can't even understand. For example, Gutenberg invented the printing press. When he invented the printing press, people were thinking maybe people will read two times, three times, five times more books than they're reading now. And Gutenberg creates this printing press, I believe, in the 1400s. And the offspring of that, on the extreme end, is this idea of the Kindle. One could even argue that reading text on a page on a computer screen is way further down. But it didn't make five times more books. It's infinite. It doesn't create 10 times more. It creates a whole new thing. What I have noticed, I've noticed this with the cotton gin. I've noticed this with the creation of the steam engine, which then went on to create the railroads, which created a massive boom in America. When technology makes a product that already has some demand more efficient, there is turmoil amongst those who are directly impacted. For example, have you ever heard of the Luddites? Yeah. People who don't adopt technology. Yeah. So now it's used as an insult. Back then it wasn't. So the history of the Luddites is right around when, in the Industrial Revolution, there was a machine invented that allowed people to weave wool into yarn much faster. Previously, there were 500 or 800,000 people in England who did this by hand, and they were considered craftsmen. This new machine comes in. They get put out of business to the point that they create a fake character called Ned Ludd. And in England, this group of people goes around smashing these new machines. And it starts ruining the process of creating this new wool, to the point where— On behalf of Ned Ludd, right? This person that you couldn't attack because he wasn't real. It was a fake person. And it was so serious that it was a capital punishment in England. So if you got caught breaking one of these machines, they would put you to death. And so this idea that there were 500 or 800,000 people who were willing to risk their lives in order to ruin new technology, that's the history of Luddites. But my point is, when there is a new creation, there is a subset of people that are screwed. For example, when switchboards went away in America, in the 1970s there were 800,000 telephone operators, mostly women. Then they didn't exist. Those jobs didn't exist. But in general, more technology that creates a more efficient process creates new jobs. Sometimes because of increased demand. Sometimes the other thing is that there are new industries created that we can't even comprehend. And so my opinion is AI is actually going to create a net positive, not a net negative, which I previously thought. First of all, excellent monologue. Highly informed, highly entertaining. I enjoyed that. You told me you were reading about the Industrial Revolution because you were trying to figure out history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. What happened in the past? What did we say? What did we think then? Does that sound like what we say and think now? And what actually happened? Yeah, one that came out 10 or 15 years ago that's now popular again, that I read a while ago, is called Americana. And it goes through breakthroughs in American capitalism. Different inventions. And you'll notice that people have the same fears consistently. So let me ask a different question. One of the most dangerous things in business is to think, well, this time it's different. Those are very dangerous words. This time it's different. However, it's also dangerous to say it'll be just like last time. You have to almost consider both possibilities. I'm not saying that, by the way. What I'm saying is that human nature is human nature. And there's something special about the 30- to 60-hour-a-week workweek that has happened for centuries. And also, time and time again, there's this idea that I always come back to. I used to be a beekeeper. And bees are really interesting. With bees, if you get one hive with one set of bees, you just stack that over and over and over again. Bees fill up space. They just fill up space. In the same way, whenever you've gotten a new home, anyone has experienced this. They get to this new home. They previously only had 1,000 square feet. They get to 2,000 square feet. They say to themselves, I'm never going to fill this place. And then magically, over the next three years, they go, how do I have so much junk? The human need to expand, to grow, to fill space, is innate. It does not go away. And so that is what I'm saying is the same every single time. Not the how. I don't know how this is going to happen. That's the point of my monologue, is that I don't know. But I know it will happen. Yeah. And not to be too abstract here, but the one thing I don't get, or the one thing I haven't figured out with that, I buy everything you said. All this new demand will get created. We'll want code in places we didn't have code. So yeah, it'll be more efficient to get code. But net-net, you're going to have way more code, way more people creating code. In this case, if AI is so good at doing things, AI is a technology that is the technology of doing work, generic work, human work. It's basically a model of the brain. Who's to say that AI won't also fill those jobs? Meaning, yes, it creates all this demand, which creates new job opportunities, new industries. But who's to say that AI also isn't the one that supplies that demand? Because the printing press, these were more rigid technologies that could do one thing. AI is weird in that it's this flexible, general thing that can do so many things. So who's to say it doesn't also become the supply? There's a few ways to look at this. The first is, you could say, well, is this going to be like hot water? So for example, when hot water was invented, this idea that you could take showers every day, like a king, was incredible. And so hot water surged. And water heaters were put in every home in America. But you know what happened? We figured out how much hot water we need. We don't actually need that much more hot water today than we did 50 years ago. So it took off and then it kind of got flat, right? But another example is electricity. When electricity was invented, it basically became a base unit of measurement for life. If physics dictates, if it can exist in physics, there's a way that you can uniquely use electricity to make it happen. I think potentially code is going to be like that, where it's going to be a unit of measurement where you can find infinite ways to get done what you need to get done. The first is, you could say, well, is this going to be hot water? So, for example, when hot water was invented, this idea that you could take showers every day, a king, that was incredible. And so hot water surged. And water heaters were put in every home in America. But what happened? We figured out how much hot water we need. We don't actually need that much more hot water today than we did 50 years ago. So it took off, and then it got flat, right? But another example is electricity. When electricity was invented, it became a base unit of measurement for life. If physics dictates, if it can exist in physics, there's a way that you can uniquely use electricity to make it happen. I think potentially code is going to be like that, where it's going to be a unit of measurement where you can find infinite ways to get done what you need to get done. And I do not think that it's going to be like water, where it's going to be like, all right, we figured it out. We don't really need that much more hot water. Well, why are you saying code instead of intelligence? I'm just working through this, to be honest. I'm still trying to think of that's a unit. Intelligence, I don't understand how to quantify it. But now this is actually interesting to you, potentially. There is always a point of turmoil with these new technologies. And I've been trying to actually break down, is there a formula that you can figure out? Will the economy boom? Or I think it will. I think that's inevitable. But how long will it take? So, for example, the railroads came about, and there's this weird chart that, if you look at how many railroad tracks were laid and how the average person's protein consumption went up. We figured it out. We don't really need that much more hot water. Well, why are you saying code instead of intelligence? I'm just working through this, to be honest. I'm still trying to think of that's a unit. Intelligence, I don't understand how to quantify it. But now this is actually interesting to you, potentially. There is always a point of turmoil with these new technologies. And I've been trying to actually break down, is there a formula that you can figure out: will the economy boom? Or I think it will. I think that's inevitable. But how long will it take? So, for example, the railroads came about, and there's this weird chart that, if you look at how many railroad tracks were laid and how the average person's protein consumption went up. Because what the railroads did was they made America smaller, and it created towns that didn't exactly have to be where they were anymore. And it created this massive, booming economy. However, it took 50 years because we had to create railroads, which is a very labor-intensive thing. We had to create steel, which was entirely newly invented. And so there's this equation where it's the breadth of the technology, meaning how many people does it impact, multiplied by the intensity of how it impacts you, multiplied by the time of co-invention. And that equals the length of turmoil that someone will go through. With ChatGBT growing as fast as it has, there is a world where the tumultuous period is relatively short compared to past breakthrough technologies. And if you knew the turmoil, either when, how, or how long, what would you do with it? Because you said there's an opportunity. What's the opportunity? If you knew that it's only going to take us three to five years to figure this thing out to where we're humming again, you can make bets on that. Yeah. Actually, one of the Jevons paradox plays over the last few years has been in video because what a lot of people thought is, hey, people are buying these GPUs, but each training run, each algorithmic improvement that the labs are making is going to make you need less and less of these GPUs in order to train these models. And Jensen went on TV saying, he was like, you're right. The training is going to become more efficient, but the inference is going to go up by 1 million percent or whatever, 1 million X. And people were like, 1 million X? And he's like, 1 million X. And it's what you were saying at the beginning, which is that when these things do diffuse, the demand goes up, not by some easy-to-understand percentage or multiple, but in a mind-boggling way where, from the time of the printing press to now, if you were trying to market-size how many people will create text and how many people will read text, you couldn't have thought of Twitter, right? Twitter would have broken your brain. It didn't make any sense, but that's what happens. And so he's been saying that about inference, which is, when you query AI, when you use AI to do something, you use inference, and he's like, inference is going through. He's like, people don't understand how big the inference need is going to be for the world. So, mind-boggling. I think what's going to happen over the next six months is, and this is partially for the listener, because I think you potentially might know this, I think the popular smart people, which I think we're relatively popular. I don't think I'm that smart, but I think the popular smart people, the narrative is going to change. It's not good, and this is self-serving to have this narrative, particularly if you're a president or whatever, but the narrative is going to change that this is going to be a massive net positive. And they're going to cite Javon's paradox, and they're going to cite everything that I've just said, which isn't particularly unique. And nothing I'm saying is unique. Dude, I see this all the time. It's like, yeah, this is going to be great for you if you make it great for you. I think people are just sitting back as the recipient of this. And it's like, is this hand going to slap me, or is it going to put grapes in my mouth? And it's like, well, it depends. It depends what you do. Are you learning how to use this shit? Are you paying attention to what's going on? Are you thinking about how you can use this in your field? Are you talking to smart people? Are you moving where the puck is going or not? I feel like people are so passive about what's going to happen, as if everything is happening to you and that none of this is happening potentially for you, and that you have no agency to be generative and democratize this technology for yourself. The reason I was studying the Luddites is I think that same movement is already happening right now, and it's going to continue to happen. You saw at these recent college graduation speeches, Steve's or Solomon, I forget his first name. Solomon, the CEO of Goldman, was talking about AI, and everyone was booing. Yeah. People walked out, right? The reason I'm bringing this up is if you go back and study the Gilded Age, which, that's one of my favorite eras, as well as the Industrial Revolution, it all just repeats itself. Everything's repeating itself. It's very, very, very similar over and over and over and over again. This is all quite predictable. Now the time and the how is who knows, but the general trend, it's all been there, done that. Yeah. Yeah. That's crazy to me that it's become a high-status thing to do to be anti-data centers and AI and things like that. It's really bizarre. But that's not fair. I don't think that's fair. I don't think we should dismiss it. I think they're stupid. I understand their sentiment. Can you imagine being 18 or 21 years old? First of all, if you're 21 years old, you fucking graduated high school during COVID. That sucks. Okay. The world changed dramatically over the last four years, to the point where you were expecting to get a job at Deloitte or as a law clerk or whatever, and they're like, nah, we don't need you, dog. There is anger, which I understand. But I think that the way that they act. You're asking me to put my mind in the mind of a loser, and I just can't do it. It's just not possible to do this. The loser thing is just not acceptable in my mind. And I'm sorry. I just don't have the ability. Maybe you can. Maybe you can go in the mind of a loser, but I just, I think they're wrong, but I have empathy for it. I understand that feeling, and I think they're stupid. Dude. There was one point where ATMs had just gotten invented, and these people who are the bank tellers. Bank tellers. It was a big deal. That was a big job. And they revolted. They were like, F this, you're going to put us out of business, this or that. And do you know what happened? Way more banks went up. Way more banks were created, or branches, physical locations, way more. You're asking me to put my mind in the mind of a loser, and I just can't do it. It's just not possible to do this. The loser thing is just not acceptable in my mind. And I'm sorry. I just don't have the ability. Maybe you can. Maybe you can go in the mind of a loser, but I think they're wrong, and I have empathy for it. I understand that feeling, and I think they're stupid. Dude. There was one point where ATMs had just gotten invented, and these people who are the bank tellers. Bank tellers. It was a big deal. That was a big job. And they revolted. They were like, F this, you're going to put us out of business, this or that. And do you know what happened? Way more banks went up. Way more banks were created, or branches, physical locations, way more. And so I just think if I'm telling these young people, I would say it might suck for a minute. Dude, if you're young, you have no excuse. Okay. I can get it if you're 65 and you're 75 years old or whatever, and you're like, oh my God, there's a lot of change. It's going to be really hard. I've been running my business. It's pretty difficult for me to reinvent right now. I have a lot more understanding for that. If you're 18, 19, you didn't know anything anyway. Hop on this train. This train is exciting. This train has so much room to run. You have to look at the counterfactuals, right? So you might say, well, it's going to be harder than ever to get a job, or this or that. It's also true that more people than ever are going to create new things. More people than ever are going to become successful. More people than ever are going to become millionaires out of this. And so it's entirely possible to have that result if you choose, if you do the actions that will get you to that result. I've been running my business. It's pretty difficult for me to reinvent right now. I have a lot more understanding for that. If you're 18, 19, you didn't know anything anyway. Hop on this train. This train is exciting. This train has so much room to run. You have to look at the counterfactuals, right? So you might say, well, it's going to be harder than ever to get a job, or this or that. It's also true that more people than ever are going to create new things. More people than ever are going to become successful. More people than ever are going to become millionaires out of this. And so it's entirely possible to have that result. If you choose, if you do the actions that will get you to that result. So I guess I just have very little empathy for the younger folks. This should be easier, come more naturally for them. They have less invested and less sunk costs and less rigidity of the past to even be tied down to. So I don't really understand that. And the other side is, is this serving you? Is that attitude serving you in any way? It's like, forget arguing who's right and who's wrong. At some point, you just have to ask, does this belief serve me or not? And I don't believe that that belief serves you. I also don't believe that you can control it. Just like Ned Ludd and the Luddites found out, it didn't matter how many windows you smashed. This shit's happening. It's like getting mad at the weather. It's going to rain whether you shake your fist at the sky or not. You have zero chance of slowing down AI. The AI freight train has left the station. It is happening. And so all you should really worry about is what you can control, which is your reaction and response to the new playing field. Trying to argue that the new playing field is bad is stupid to me. It's like, again, yelling at the weather. You don't get to have a say in that side of things. The New York, who is it? The governor, the mayor, whoever it was that was proudly like, we have banned data centers in New York state. They were so happy about it. Politics is already very performative, but man, taking so much smug pride in banishing the technology that's going to create where all the growth is coming from in the economy is silly. And one that's being popularized now is data centers use electricity and use water. And I actually have no idea if that's true or not true. But whenever I see these things, I'm like, we should actually learn if that's the reality. Because I have a feeling that the Super Bowl is significantly more inefficient than a data center. And yet we celebrate that. Anybody who has this feeling and you're like, man, Sean's really not empathizing with my, this guy's being a jerk about this. He doesn't understand how hard it is right now. And for me, just watch this clip. You just need to watch this clip of this guy with no legs completing the last man standing race, which is this insane 26-hour fitness event. And he's crawling, he's using his, he's pulling his wheelchair through the mud, using his arms, finishing this race. And anybody who's got an it is what it is attitude, go watch this on loop. This should be your commencement speech instead of just sitting there smug and walking out of it because some guy said two letters you didn't like. I usually think of Sacagawea and Lewis and Clark. That's mine. In moments like this. I think, look, they walked across an unknown territory for two years with a three-month-old baby. They could do that, and that baby still lived. I can do this. That's what I need. Actually, that should be a service when you're in Disneyland as a dad and it's hour seven and it's so hot. The kids are crying, cranky after you spent a thousand dollars taking them to the happiest place on earth. And you're pushing the stroller and you've got the turkey leg dripping down your arm, the juice of that thing. And you just hate your life. You need the Sacagawea example. Yeah. That's what you need. Look, kids, the story of Moby Dick is real. These guys floated across America on a raft for 90 days before they were discovered. Okay. If they could do that, we can get to McDonald's without crying. Can I tell you a very inspiring entrepreneurial story just to leave on a high note? Have you ever heard about the ice king? Frederick Tudor. You know this guy? Not personally. All right. So Frederick Tudor. So this guy is known as the ice king. This guy basically lives in the northeast of the U.S. So he lives near Boston or something where it gets cold. And Boston gets cold in the winter. There's tons of ice. And he realizes, he learns that in South America, they never have snow and they never had ice. And so he has this brilliant entrepreneurial idea. He's like, I'm going to sell ice to the South Americans. And this is pre-refrigeration, pre-the freezer being invented, right? So he basically goes out wherever there's a frozen lake, and he would get blocks of ice. And he would figure out how to transport it on boats to South America and go try to sell this stuff. And he was like, I will sell, I'm not selling ice. I'm selling winter. And people are like, how are you going to even trans, melting? And he's like, so he starts getting in the lab, and he uses wool to wrap that. He realizes, oh, I can cover it with sawdust. And sawdust will preserve this ice for a little longer. And he would start the thing with 200 pounds of ice. And by the end, he would have 70 pounds left, but he would still sell that 70 pounds. And then when he got there, people didn't understand what to do with the ice. He would sell the ice, and then people would come back complaining, being like, it melted, dude. He's like, what are you talking about? That's what it does. It's ice. It's hot outside. They didn't get it. And he's like, okay, I just got on this boat for a month and brought them ice, and they didn't want it. I have to get them to want it. I have to build the desire in their mind. And so he goes and he figures out what's the key product. What's my hero product here? He's like, I need to sell cold drinks on a hot day. So he goes to the bartenders and he says, look, I'm going to chip you off a little ice here. This is free for you, but you need to start serving rum cold in a chilled drink. And so he gets the bartenders free ice. They start giving people ice out of the cold drinks. And guess what? Once you've had cold rum, you never want to go back to that warm piss again. And so the demand starts to get built. People start to want ice. And this guy builds this amazing trade. They didn't get it. And he's like, okay, I just got on this boat for a month and brought them ice, and they didn't want it. I have to get them to want it. I have to build the desire in their mind. And so he goes and he figures out what's the key product. What's my hero product here? He's like, I need to sell cold drinks on a hot day. So he goes to the bartenders and he says, look, I'm going to chip you off a little ice here. This is free for you, but you need to start serving rum cold in a chilled drink. And so he gets the bartenders free ice. They start giving people ice in cold drinks. And guess what? Once you've had cold rum, you never want to go back to that warm piss again. And so the demand starts to get built. People start to want ice. And this guy builds this amazing trade. He pioneers new methods of refrigeration and freezing in order to transport the ice and ultimately puts himself out of business because people realized, oh, wait, we can just freeze water and make ice ourselves. And then the ice trade kind of collapsed. But Frederick Tudor, for a day, was the man. I'm also always interested in how you got interested in this because sometimes those stories are equally as good. So me and Diego, who's right over here, five feet away from me, one of the things we do is we try to read as many books as we can. And so he's been reading this book called The Medici Effect. So this was one of his stories. And I was like, wow, that's an incredible story. I'm happy you're reading books now. That's condescending, but I like it. I appreciate it. I did not say that. I said what I just said, but you previously said that you normally don't make it past the table of contents. I don't know. I normally don't open the book. I buy the book with great enthusiasm, and I really don't even open it. You'll appreciate this. I'm creating a bookshelf. So you'll see my office is going to change soon. So I'm creating a bookshelf that is like a Trello board. So it's a progress bar bookshelf. So I have all the books I bought. That's my icebox, my pipeline. And then a book moves into the reading phase. And then it moves physically into the completed phase. And then there's the hall of fame of great books, which will be the few, the rare, the ones I would actually recommend to anybody else. I appreciate it. I did not say that. I said what I just said, but you previously said that you normally don't make it past the table of contents. I don't know. I normally don't open the book. I buy the book with great enthusiasm, and I really don't even open it. I've actually, you'll appreciate this, been creating a bookshelf. So you'll see my office is going to change soon. So I'm creating a bookshelf that is a Trello board. So it's a progress bar bookshelf. So I have all the books I bought. That's my icebox, my pipeline. And then a book moves into the reading phase. And then it moves physically into the completed phase. And then there's the hall of fame of great books, which will be the few, the rare, the ones I would actually recommend to anybody else. It's one time Steph Smith told me she invented a water bottle that reminds her to drink more water. And I was like, just chug the water. Just sit down and read the book. Are you sure my bookshelf not being a progress bar has not been the thing holding me back? That's what I've been telling myself. So my old boss, Emmett from Twitch, he would tell me this because I have a tendency to do this, where I will overarchitect a solution to something. And I will convince myself that this elaborate way will be the solution instead of the obvious. And so he would just listen to me talk, and I would tell him for 15 minutes what this great idea I have. And then I'd be like, it's great, right? And then he would say simply, he'd go, have you tried solving the problem? Have you tried actually just solving the problem? And then he would say things like, the only way out is through, Sean. And I was like, oh, wow. I was like, yeah, I'm an idiot. He goes, no, actually, I'm a partner at YC. And this is the most common advice I give to YC startups. They'll say exactly what they're planning to do. And then I'll ask them, have you tried solving the problem? And then they'll be like, what? And it's his shock-value way of reminding you that in many situations, the only way out is through. And you're trying to find a way around. And there is no around. There's only through. I waste so much time charging my AirPods, looking for the holster to hold my iPhone, making sure that this. And I'm like, dude, you're just going for a 30-minute run. I will buy, I will, I did this the other day. I was going for a run. I Doordashed the little arm plastic blood pressure monitor where you put your phone? And I was like, well, I certainly couldn't run without my phone. So I guess I'll just wait 45 minutes for this thing to arrive. So you're a 15-minute run. Four-hour, four-minute run. I was going to run half a mile. I do the same shit all the time. It's one song. I could have just hummed it. What was it like? Come, my lady, come, come, my lady, you're my butterfly. Sean's like running. Is this guy singing Hoobastake to himself? Why do people listen to us? Why do they listen to us? We're idiots. That's the pod. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. kid. kid. kid. You So Frederick Tudor. So this guy is known as the ice king. This guy basically lives in the northeast of the U.S. So he lives near Boston or something where it gets cold. And Boston gets cold in the winter. There's tons of ice. And he realizes, he learns that in South America, they never have snow and they never had ice. And so he has this brilliant entrepreneurial idea. He's like, I'm going to sell ice to the South Americans. And this is pre-refrigeration, pre-the freezer being invented, right? So he basically goes out wherever there's a frozen lake, and he would get blocks of ice. And he would figure out how to transport it on boats to South America and go try to sell this stuff. And he was like, I will sell, I'm not selling ice. I'm selling winter. And people are like, how are you going to even trans, melting? And he's like, so he starts getting in the lab, and he uses wool to wrap that. He realizes, oh, I can cover it with sawdust. And sawdust will preserve this ice for a little longer. And he would start the thing with 200 pounds of ice. And by the end, he would have 70 pounds left, but he would still sell that 70 pounds. And then when he got there, people didn't understand what to do with the ice. He would sell the ice, and then people would come back complaining, being like, it melted, dude. He's like, what are you talking about? That's what it does. It's ice. It's hot outside. They didn't get it. And he's like, okay, I just got on this boat for a month and brought them ice, and they didn't want it. I have to get them to want it. I have to build the desire in their mind. And so he goes and he figures out what's the key product. What's my hero product here? He's like, I need to sell cold drinks on a hot day. So he goes to the bartenders and he says, look, I'm going to chip you off a little ice here. This is free for you, but you need to start serving rum cold in a chilled drink. And so he gets the bartenders free ice. They start giving people ice out of the cold drinks. And guess what? Once you've had cold rum, you never want to go back to that warm piss again. And so the demand starts to get built. People start to want ice. And this guy builds this amazing trade. He pioneers new methods of refrigeration and freezing in order to transport the ice and ultimately puts himself out of business because people realized, oh, wait, we can just freeze water and make ice ourselves. And then the ice trade kind of collapsed. But Frederick Tudor for a day was the man. I'm also always interested how you got interested in this because sometimes those stories are equally as good. So me and Diego, who's right over here, five feet away from me, one of the things we do is we try to read as many books as we can. And so he's been reading this book called The Medici Effect. So this was one of his stories. And I was like, wow, that's an incredible story. I'm happy you're reading books now. That's condescending, but I like it. I appreciate it. I did not say that. I said what I just said, but you previously said that you normally don't make it past the table of contents. I don't know. I normally don't open the book. I buy the book with great enthusiasm, and I really don't even open them. You'll appreciate this. I'm creating a bookshelf. So you'll see my office is going to change soon. So I'm creating a bookshelf that is like a Trello board. So it's basically a progress bar bookshelf. So I have all the books I bought. That's my icebox, my pipeline. And then a book moves into the reading phase. And then it moves physically into the completed phase. And then there's the hall of fame of great books, which will be the few, the rare, the ones I would actually recommend to anybody else. I appreciate it. I did not say that. I said what I just said, but you previously said that you normally don't make it past the table of contents. I don't know. I normally don't open the book. I buy the book with great enthusiasm, and I really don't even open them. I've actually, you'll appreciate this. I'm creating a bookshelf. So you'll see my office is going to change soon. So I'm creating a bookshelf that is a Trello board. So it's a progress bar bookshelf. So I have all the books I bought. That's my icebox, my pipeline. And then a book moves into the reading phase. And then it moves physically into the completed phase. And then there's the hall of fame of great books, which will be the few, the rare, the ones I would actually recommend to anybody else. It's one time Steph Smith told me she invented a water bottle that reminds her to drink more water. And I was like, just chug the water. Just sit down and read the book. Are you sure my bookshelf not being a progress bar has not been the thing holding me back? That's what I've been telling myself. So my old boss, Emmett from Twitch, he would tell me this because I have a tendency to do this where I will overarchitect a solution to something. And I will convince myself that this elaborate way will be the solution instead of the obvious. And so he would just listen to me talk, and I would tell him for 15 minutes what this great idea I have. And then I'd be like, it's great, right? And then he would say simply, he'd go, have you tried solving the problem? Have you tried actually just solving the problem? And then he would say things like, the only way out is through, Sean. And I was like, oh, wow. I was like, yeah, I'm an idiot. He goes, no, actually, he goes, I'm a partner at YC. And this is the most common advice I give to YC startups. They'll say exactly what they're planning to do. And then I'll ask them, have you tried solving the problem? And then they'll be like, what? And it's his shock value way of reminding you that in many situations, the only way out is through. And you're trying to find a way around. And there is no around. There's only through. I waste so much time charging my AirPods, looking for the holster to hold my iPhone, making sure that this. And I'm like, dude, you're just going for a 30-minute run. I will buy, I will, I did this the other day. I was going for a run. I Doordashed the little arm plastic blood pressure monitor where you put your phone? And I was like, well, I certainly couldn't run without my phone. So I guess I'll just wait 45 minutes for this thing to arrive. So you're a 15-minute run. Four-hour, four-minute run. I was going to run half a mile. I do the same shit all the time. It's one song. I could have just hummed it. What was it like? Come, my lady, come, come, my lady, you're my butterfly. Sean's like running. Is this guy singing Hoobastake to himself? Why do people listen to us? Why do they listen to us? We're idiots. That's the pod. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. kid. kid. kid. You There's only through. I waste so much time like charging my AirPods, looking for the holster to hold my iPhone, making sure that like this. And I'm like, dude, you're just going for like a 30-minute run. I will buy, I will, I do this the other day. I was going for a run. I doordashed, you know, the little arm plastic like blood pressure monitor where you put your phone? And I was like, well, I certainly couldn't run without my phone. So I guess I'll just wait 45 minutes for this thing to arrive. So you're a 15-minute run. Four-hour, four-minute run. I was going to run half a mile. I do the same shit all the time. It's one song. I could have just hummed it. What was it like? Come, my lady, come, come, my lady, you're my butterfly. Sean's like running. Is this guy singing Hoobastake to himself? Why do people listen to us? Why do they listen to us? We're idiots. That's the pod. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. I'm a kid. kid. kid. kid. You