Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds

Transcript

That all the money and returns will pull up in nonprofits because for profits get so whacked on making smart allocations. It's funny because for me, you're like, do you hold yourself SpaceX? It's actually not a question. Is it worth $1.5 trillion? You have to ask yourself, is it worth $750 million? And that's a very different question. Right? [SPEAKER_00] More or less. [SPEAKER_00] Is it no or is it yes? We'll debate the tax that's best when we get more or less. Dave and Britt plus Sam and Jess. Put it all right to the test. More or less. [SPEAKER_02] Hi, friends. Welcome to More or Less. Britt's trying to do some triage on our sound and I just started. Here's what's happening. [SPEAKER_01] I was trying to start the episode on a Waymo, which would have been awesome, but you guys relate. [SPEAKER_03] Well, okay. Sam is on, by the way, not even wireless headphones right now. Full wired. 2005 called and it wants its pair of headphones back. [SPEAKER_01] Britt, you're so behind. [SPEAKER_01] Everyone's back to wired headphones. [SPEAKER_03] Your microphone is dangling in the wind as you make your way into your office. I don't have access to my office. I never go to it, so I don't know how to get in. [SPEAKER_01] And so I'm waiting on the street for someone to let me in. [SPEAKER_02] Okay, so we're going to do a little setting the scene, but dear listeners, we promise we have a great episode for you because by the way— [SPEAKER_02] And Dave's not here, by the way. [SPEAKER_02] Just so everyone knows. Well, that was going to be part of my scene setting. [SPEAKER_03] Oh, okay. Set the scene. Before we brace for an episode of AI bubble talk, SpaceX financials revealed, and so much more. I have to give you a lay-in. So Britt looks like she is polished in a cardigan somewhere very put together. [SPEAKER_02] Would that be right? Yes, I am in my office, which I did not have trouble getting into because I come every day. Right. Sam is stranded on the street, hair very sexily blowing in the wind. Wired headphones and a glare. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, which is all the kids are back to. [SPEAKER_03] I'm stuck outside my office. [SPEAKER_02] I don't know how to get into my office. And that's just how it is. But someone will eventually let me in. The people who work in this office claim that they went for a walk. [SPEAKER_01] I think they're in their apartments running to the office to let me in. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, I think that was a work from home day until the boss showed up. And in fairness to them, it's a very rare occurrence. So they really, they're not wrong. They're just wrong this one time. [SPEAKER_02] They went for a walk. [SPEAKER_02] I love this. [SPEAKER_02] That's literally what they told me. I just landed in Austin where guys, there is no Waymo. [SPEAKER_02] And this is the first time I've experienced Waymo withdrawal. [SPEAKER_02] When I was flying here, I'm here for a conference. [SPEAKER_02] I was on the plane Googling, is there Waymo in Austin? I was like, phew, there is. It's through the Uber app. [SPEAKER_02] Great. Also love Uber. Open the Uber app. [SPEAKER_01] Do you? [SPEAKER_00] No, I do. [SPEAKER_02] Wait, you can get Waymos in Uber? Okay. First of all, you can only get Waymos through Uber in Austin, which is the weirdest thing ever. Guys, you obviously have not read any of the information's great reporting on Waymo. Waymo has a three-pronged business strategy. [SPEAKER_02] They have their own network in certain cities. [SPEAKER_02] And then they're working with other rideshare providers on the back end in other cases, like the Uber partnership in Austin. [SPEAKER_02] I am sorry to report this partnership does not appear live and well. [SPEAKER_03] When I go to the Uber app, as I do, I do not see Waymo options. [SPEAKER_02] No, it's because it's a roll of the dice. So the way it works in Austin, by the way, which is my hometown, is you pick a Waymo and it's a roll of the dice if you're going to get one or not through the Uber app. And so I actually am Waymo lucky. I end up getting Waymos a lot in Austin. I think right now there's a bunch of tech people in Austin already and a bunch of them flying to Austin, namely my husband and you, Jess. Yes, we were both here, yes. And so there, I think there's just higher demand. I am sorry. I cannot be a proponent of a service that gives me something based on a roll of the dice. This is not how I operate my life. Everything is a roll of the dice in technology, Jess. [SPEAKER_01] Here's the thing, I actually just think you need to get into the gatekeeper where you get all the Waymos. [SPEAKER_01] This is how Uber very smart would get... [SPEAKER_02] Well, obviously, I am one tweet away from that happening because I have become a Waymo influencer. Uber did a very smart thing, which turned out to be, I guess, somewhat illegal. I am sorry. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] I cannot be a proponent of a service that gives me something based on a roll of the dice. This is not how I operate my life. Everything is a roll of the dice in technology, Jess. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] Here's the thing, I actually just think you need to get into the gatekeeper where you get all the Waymos. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] This is how Uber very smart would get... Well, obviously, I am one tweet away from that happening because I have become a Waymo influencer. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Uber did a very smart thing, which turned out to be, I guess, somewhat illegal. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] I don't know. Remember when they started making sure politicians never get Ubers because they didn't want to get regulated? [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] They had a gatekeeper, which kept out all the bad people from getting Ubers. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, can we get on the Waymo whitelist? [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_03] And now they just need to do the inverse. Wasn't that just, you remember this? They got in trouble because they basically created a blackball? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] It was called gray balling. Yeah, which is totally reasonable. [SPEAKER_02] I mean, not nice, but totally reasonable. [SPEAKER_01] I just think I need whiteball. Yeah. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] I just think I have a problem with the Russian roulette approach to getting my Waymos. [SPEAKER_02] It's like your hope is up. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Yes, it's called reliability, which is one of the key things. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] The only reason I now use Waymo is you actually can get them within 10 minutes, wherever you want them. [SPEAKER_01] If that weren't the case, you'd never open the app. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Was it called black ball? It was called gray, gray balling. Yeah, which is totally reasonable. [SPEAKER_02] I mean, not nice, but totally reasonable. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] I just need white ball. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] I just think I have a problem with the Russian roulette approach to getting my Waymos. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] It's your hope is up. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Yes, it's called reliability is one of the key. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] No, the only reason I now use Waymo is you actually can get them within 10 minutes, wherever you want them. [SPEAKER_01] If that weren't the case, you'd never open the app. [SPEAKER_01] But the fact that you can do that now. [SPEAKER_01] I mean, I get them. [SPEAKER_01] I schedule ahead. They're on time to the minute. [SPEAKER_02] And I got to say, and the internet is skeptical of this claim, but as someone who's commuted to my office for a long time, twice a day, Waymo's find faster routes every day. [SPEAKER_02] They are optimizing the Bay Area traffic with some AI stuff in ways that's faster. [SPEAKER_02] And anytime I get in another ride sharing service, the time to destination goes up. [SPEAKER_02] It starts at 24 minutes. [SPEAKER_02] It ends at 34 minutes. [SPEAKER_02] Every Waymo I've had in the last two days has been shorter. [SPEAKER_02] This is not just the future of autonomous driving of Waymos. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] I think it's autonomous driving in general, because we're investors in Cocoa Robotics who have those little robots that take things to your door for DoorDash and Uber Eats and stuff. [SPEAKER_03] And they also get faster destination time because they're taking back alleys and they're taking optimal routes. [SPEAKER_03] But to be clear, Uber could do that too. [SPEAKER_03] That's just a better product experience to lowball people and then there's no reason that Uber human drivers. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] Well, that's what I was wondering, but now you're, yeah. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] But they're not lowballing because- [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] I think they probably are if they're smart. [SPEAKER_02] Why wouldn't they lowball and they make you exceed expectations? Speaking of Uber, can we talk about the Uber CTO news that you published this week? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Wait, before we do that, can I make one ode to Waymo? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Which is, here's the reason I like it, the thing is I actually literally go to San Francisco more because of Waymo, right? [SPEAKER_01] Because- Clearly you should get a key card. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] I'm literally going to go to a friend's office. [SPEAKER_02] I can't get into my own office. [SPEAKER_01] And luckily I have a friend around the corner. [SPEAKER_01] I have an office, you can go to my office. I'm sorry. [SPEAKER_02] But here's the thing is, it's consistent driving style, smooth so I don't get sick. My number one problem with Uber- [SPEAKER_01] I don't get car sick, I don't get nauseous. [SPEAKER_01] Same. [SPEAKER_02] That's the thing. [SPEAKER_02] And the thing is that the average Uber driver is worse than the computer at driving. And then really, every once in a while you'll get an Uber and it's some guy in a rice rocket and he's just jamming on the brakes and I'm just, I'm so sick right now. What's a rice rocket? I think it's physically ill. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Look it up. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] It's probably not a term you're supposed to use anymore. I feel like that's maybe a derogatory term. [SPEAKER_01] No, I agree. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Car sickness down. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Efficiency up. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Podcast listening up. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] I just emailed the entire way to the office. [SPEAKER_02] Hey Larry, what's up? There he goes. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Oh my God. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Someone left in my office. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Larry. [SPEAKER_01] Larry's there. Thank you for helping. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Thanks man. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] We'll catch up in a bit. [SPEAKER_02] Does he have a coffee in his hand, Sam? [SPEAKER_01] No, he doesn't. [SPEAKER_02] By the way, you want to see our chief? There he goes. [SPEAKER_02] Oh my God. Someone left in my office. [SPEAKER_02] Larry. [SPEAKER_01] Larry's there. Thank you for helping. [SPEAKER_01] Thanks man. We'll catch up in a bit. [SPEAKER_01] Does he have a coffee in his hand, Sam? No, he doesn't. [SPEAKER_01] By the way, you want to see our chief? Look at this. [SPEAKER_01] This is chief compliance bear. That's our chief compliance officer. [SPEAKER_01] No one wants a tour of the slow adventures. [SPEAKER_02] Very cute. Okay. [SPEAKER_02] So we, this is not brought to you by Waymo, but could be. [SPEAKER_01] Also guys, I love non San Franciscans who come to San Francisco for work and experience Waymos and then go, we do, full Instagram Waymo life. Waymo Maxine. [SPEAKER_01] And I also predict by the Olympics in LA, Waymo is just going to be. Next up, Joby will be flying everywhere. [SPEAKER_01] No, no, no. This is where we lose you. [SPEAKER_01] This is where you just take it and go so far. Guys, a lot of AI news. [SPEAKER_01] And I do want, we have not talked enough about SpaceX. SpaceX by the month of June, but six weeks away is going to try to have the most epic IPO of all time. [SPEAKER_01] So we're going to talk about SpaceX and the information's stunning revelations that they are losing billions of dollars, specifically five. [SPEAKER_02] But, and I'm going to make you guys do a bull bear case on SpaceX valuation. [SPEAKER_01] So prepare for all of that. [SPEAKER_02] But first we have some news, Sam. I'm going to give this to you because I believe you were an investor in the once known as Allbirds company, soon to have AI pivoted to a data center company. AI birds. [SPEAKER_01] Is that the official name? This is Jonah Pratty all over again. [SPEAKER_01] Remember when I looked this up two and a half years ago, Buzzfeed announced it was an AI company as a penny stock and ripped for a day and went back down. It's a great trade strategy. [SPEAKER_02] Yes. [SPEAKER_01] And it has not served poor Jonah well, but also Jonah didn't then say he was going to get into the business of buying GPUs. [SPEAKER_02] He just wanted to convince us that AI would do our surveys. [SPEAKER_01] Oh, I see. [SPEAKER_02] Jess, can you back up and just present the facts of the story? [SPEAKER_03] Yes. [SPEAKER_02] I'll present some facts. I was hoping Sam would, but silly me. [SPEAKER_02] Okay. [SPEAKER_03] And I think that's the only way it makes sense to hold this. Selling at the series A is bold. [SPEAKER_02] I don't think it was the A, no, it was later than that. And it has not served poor Jonah well, but also Jonah didn't then say he was going to get into the business of buying GPUs. [SPEAKER_02] He just wanted to convince us that AI would do our surveys. Oh, I see. [SPEAKER_02] Jess, can you back up and just present the facts of the story? [SPEAKER_03] Yes. [SPEAKER_02] I'll present some facts. I was hoping Sam would, but silly me. [SPEAKER_03] Okay. And I think that's the only way it makes sense to hold this. [SPEAKER_03] Selling at the series A is bold. [SPEAKER_01] I don't think it was the A, no, it was later than that. [SPEAKER_03] I remember. Then it was the B. [SPEAKER_01] Then it was the B. Because it was getting so good, it was great product. We love the product. Great, great products. Right. But the math became simple, which is the only way it made sense to hold it is if you believe that Allbirds was the next Nike. And we're not, we do not believe that Allbirds is the next Nike. And so we did start selling. [SPEAKER_03] Allbirds described by the Financial Times as the maker of wool trainers, which I love. Very British. [SPEAKER_01] Seriously, very comfortable. I have to give them that. [SPEAKER_02] Was once valued at more than 4 billion, sold this month for about 40 million. And this shell company for shell listing has informed people via a regulatory filing it is going to pivot its business to AI compute infrastructure with a long term vision to become a fully integrated GPU as a service AI native cloud solutions provider. It will be known as Newbird AI. [SPEAKER_03] Newbird. It's just a cheaper way to stack. I mean, this is the thing. It's still expensive to get public. [SPEAKER_02] And there's a bunch of people who want to be public for cheap access to capital. I've actually looked into this and honestly, buying a penny stock is cheaper than the cost of lawyers and the bankers to go public in some cases. And so that's all this is. That's great. So Sam, what is the temperature on these SPAC shell listings? Because I don't think they've gone so well for the companies, but this is still a thing. And why is it a thing? Thematically, no one thinks they go well, but then everyone thinks there's an exception. And maybe there are some exceptions to it, right? [SPEAKER_01] And the reality is these types of things specifically—there's some play that requires cheap access to capital on a narrative. It's not a game I enjoy, but I understand that there's some arrangements you can do with it. It's just funny that effectively invest in really weird hedge fund people. Well, it's not even weird hedge fund people. [SPEAKER_03] The reality is there's all sorts of covenants and deals that go into these types of situations where if you really want to be wonky about the finance of it, it's pretty hard to lose money. [SPEAKER_02] Thematically, no one thinks they go well, but then everyone thinks there's an exception. And maybe there are some exceptions to it, right? And the reality is these types of things specifically—there's some play that requires cheap access to capital on a narrative. It's not a game I enjoy, but I understand that there's some arrangements you can do with it. It's just funny that effectively invest in really weird hedge fund people. Well, it's not even weird hedge fund people. [SPEAKER_03] The reality is there's all sorts of covenants and deals that go into these types of situations where if you really want to be wonky about the finance of it, it's pretty hard to lose money. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] And there's a ton of asymmetry on them, right? And so it's a very bottom-feeding strategy. But the reality is, even if the stock trades down, there's all sorts of ways that people make money on putting these things out or doing these types of structures. So a bunch of warrant coverage and covenants and so on. It's totally not my world, but there's a rationale to it in terms of how it plays out. And again, it's not as good for the companies, but people do make money on these things. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] At first, when I saw the headline, I thought it was going to be something really cool and interesting where everyone that's walking in their shoes is somehow creating more compute. There's something cool about it. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] That's very Brit. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Brit is so optimistic. It's great. I need this in my life. This would tie it together for me. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] My favorite irony run right now, guys, is you guys remember Boom Supersonic? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Yes. Oh, they totally pivoted. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Crushing it, but here's why. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] It's because it was the dumbest business. This was the company that was absolutely— [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Okay, so Boom was going to create supersonic airplanes, right? [SPEAKER_01] That's what they were going to do? It was a terrible business. It's a very nice vision in the Elon style, cool, Concorde 2.0. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] But from a practical perspective, there's no way this is going to work. [SPEAKER_01] No way is this going to work, right? And see how all these investors marking this thing up on the story, because it's cool people, it's a cool vision. You're like, this is just completely nonsense. Hilariously, it's going to be worth a fortune because they couldn't get access to jet engines. [SPEAKER_01] Why? What happened? [SPEAKER_01] Because they couldn't get access to jet engines. And there was no way that they were going to make their own jet engines that would get certified and be able to fly. [SPEAKER_02] But they got far enough along and then I think AI probably helped them with this, that they have a turbine they can use to run data centers, power for data centers. So they're not a supersonic company. They're just a jet engine company because they couldn't get anyone to sell them jet engines, right? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Or make them for them. So it's hilarious. You just have to be at the table where it's people who invest in it are actually probably going to make a ton of money, but completely for the wrong reasons. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Right. Or not because the idea was good. The idea was bad, right? But they're going to get away with it and you got to love it, right? The major swerve on it. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] We should probably cover more energy. Not as cover, but to the degree this podcast covers anything, The Information has a five to six-month-old AI infrastructure and energy newsletter, which is booming. I was talking to two writers for it, Anissa and Anne, and I was talking to Anne yesterday because she was in San Francisco for an energy conference. And I don't know, maybe I don't know if she told me this on or off the record, but she thinks this whole energy crisis is way overblown and that we are only using half of the energy we have in the world today. And that's before Venezuela. [SPEAKER_01] Oh God. And that's from God, Sam. Oh God. We should probably cover more energy. So not as cover, but to the degree this podcast covers anything, The Information has maybe a six-month-old, five-month-old AI infrastructure and energy newsletter, which is booming. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] And I was talking with our two writers for it, Anissa and Anne, and I was talking to Anne yesterday because she was in San Francisco for an energy conference. And I don't know, maybe I don't know if she told me this on or off the record, but she thinks this whole energy crisis is way overblown and that we are only using half of the energy we have in the world today. And that's before Venezuela. Oh God. And Hormuz. Anyway, so she and her sources—she's an old school energy reporter—and they are very skeptical of this energy scarcity narrative. But anyway, I thought that was interesting. Obviously we don't really know because we can't predict a man, but it makes sense to me that there's a rush into all of that energy stuff. [SPEAKER_02] So speaking of booms, let's talk about SpaceX guys. Okay. Do we have bulls? Do we have bears? What are we thinking? And I'll also tee this up. I'm spending a lot of time talking to investors—you know, big public market investors—about how they're looking at possible Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI IPOs. [SPEAKER_02] And I got to say by and large, and it's anecdotal, but there are enough of them. They are very, very excited about these companies and they're selling down their Magnificent Seven positions a little bit, or preparing to, to go all in on these companies. So I'm sure there are other points of view, but I've just been struck. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] I always wonder, are these people tax-free or taxable? Because this is the most interesting thing. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Well, this is something I just think is so weird about how the public markets work in these big funds, right? Which is there's two very different types of investors that invest in these things. One are people who, for whatever reason, are tax-free structure. So they can switch what they own without paying taxes. And the other people will get taxed when they sell. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] These are the world's largest professional money managers. So they presumably aren't tax-free. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Well, it depends who they're managing money for. It's complicated, but this is just this thing that is selling down super market. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Everyone is the answer—selling down super high Magnificent Seven positions, right? We have to pay enormous taxes to switch into something like OpenAI or whatever. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] That's interesting. [SPEAKER_02] You basically aren't betting. You're betting that whatever you're selling out of is going to underperform everything else by 50%. Right. [SPEAKER_02] And that's this crazy hurdle to get over emotionally and mentally where you're not actually saying, I'll give you the space. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Like fortunately, because space is just so cool, I invested a bunch of money in space. I don't have an enormous mark on that when it goes out, regardless of where it goes out. Good for me. But here's the problem. We have to pay enormous taxes to switch into something like OpenAI or whatever. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] That's interesting. [SPEAKER_02] You aren't betting. You're betting that whatever you're selling out of is going to underperform everything else by 50%. Right. [SPEAKER_02] And that's this crazy hurdle to get over emotionally and mentally where you're not actually saying, I'll give you the space. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Fortunately, because space is just so cool, I invested a bunch of money in space. I don't have an enormous mark on that when it goes out, regardless of where it goes out. Good for me. But here's the problem. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] The question of what I do with that is really a challenge because I don't want to pay 50% taxes or 40%, whatever it ends up being in California, to rotate out. I'd rather just be long it and hold it because you'd have to believe not only is SpaceX overvalued or whatever, but you'd have to have the opinion that it's so bad that it's going to underperform the rest of the market by 50% from where it is for it to be worth taking the tax burden of selling it. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] And I think a lot of what you see in these high-marked positions, from my perspective, especially with people who, if you're sophisticated, you can borrow against your positions, is they get super marked up when they're right and then you really can't sell them. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] And so that creates this floor on the pricing where no one wants to rotate out of them. [SPEAKER_01] It has to be really painful to rotate out of them, right. And that is a really interesting dynamic that is part of why the market is so disconnected from the economy from my perspective. [SPEAKER_01] Right. Because the S1 is saying what they're going to go out at 1.75 trillion as the valuation. [SPEAKER_01] And then I'm confused by the numbers too, Jess, because the information reported something different from Reuters, right. So there's. [SPEAKER_01] Please. [SPEAKER_01] Obviously I knew who's right. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] I'm just making sure the numbers are all a little wonky. The valuation stuff is all pure rumor now. No one knows what. That isn't. [SPEAKER_01] To me, it's just irrelevant. [SPEAKER_01] But let's take these one at a time here. Let's see these one time first. [SPEAKER_01] Sam, that is a very good point. And I assume there's some tax carving. [SPEAKER_01] Not if you're a university. Yes. [SPEAKER_01] And that's the thing that's really interesting—universities or people who are not taxable get to do way better moves in the market than anyone who's taxable. Right. [SPEAKER_01] And this is a weird thing, which is very bad, I think, for the economy long term, that all the money and returns will pool up in nonprofits because for-profits get so whacked on making smart allocation. [SPEAKER_01] So it's funny because for me, you're holding SpaceX. It's actually not a question. Is it worth one point five trillion dollars? You have to ask yourself, is it worth seven hundred fifty million? Right. [SPEAKER_01] And that's a very different question. But from so that's an important consideration in these funds allocations. [SPEAKER_01] But also, I think you look at the Magnificent Seven or whatever approximates it and you know, is there a 50 X story for those companies? You're also thinking about that if you're an investor. No, totally. [SPEAKER_01] But there's no, the problem with that is 50 X is a big number. But here's the thing. It's the same problem recursively, which is how big companies get, right. When Facebook was trading at 100 billion, that was a big number. People were like, a trillion dollar company? That's insane, right. And what's happened is there's a lot of money that flowed into the system. Everything rises. The market is not the economy. And so all of a sudden the 10 X case has nothing to do with a thing you're projecting about the business. It's just a bunch of the world changes. And so for me, the question of whether there's a 50 X on any of these things has so much less to do with relative value than just how much money gets printed and a bunch of other factors like that. How big can things get? How big does the number go up? So then you're like, yeah, I guess it can over a certain period. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] But it's more of a bet on the secular economy than it is a specific company. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] And so is the bet, Sam, then that you'd think SpaceX would have to get five to ten trillion in value to make this reasonable if it's going out at one and a half? It's at least a three X? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] I think the basic point is if you have high-marked positions from zero, which SpaceX will be for everyone, right. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] How big can things get? How big number go up? So then you're like, yeah, I guess it can over a certain period. [SPEAKER_01] But it's more of a bet on the secular economy than it is a specific company. [SPEAKER_01] And so is the bet, Sam, then that you'd think SpaceX would have to get five to ten trillion in value to make this reasonable if it's going out at one and a half, it's at least a three X? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] I think the basic point is if you have high marked positions from zero, which SpaceX will be for everyone. Right. Anyone who's in SpaceX is in at a lot lower than it's going out in theory, I think. Right. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] There's this thing which is you really have to not believe to sell it because the default course and speed is that all the big companies will pace each other because people have money and have to stuff it places. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Right. And so it has very little to do with the question of is there a 10 X in SpaceX? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] There could be a zero that falls off a cliff. It feels unlikely. The question is more like you have a tax free markup thing. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] At what point are you willing to take a 50 percent haircut to get out of it? [SPEAKER_02] You don't have to believe it massively underpaces everything else you could invest in. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] So that makes sense for the existing investors. But this performance of the stock is going to also be largely shaped by new investors coming in. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] And that's the whole idea of going public access to new capital. [SPEAKER_02] Right. Well, that's what I mean. Investing as a new investor at the current valuation, you have to believe this is a five to ten trillion dollar company, I think. [SPEAKER_02] Maybe. Or you just have to believe here's the reality, which is not enough people. People will hold it long term. Right. [SPEAKER_02] They hold other things long term for the tax reasons as well as other things. There's going to be less supply of shares. Right. And then the demand for shares will have much less to do with a specific thesis. [SPEAKER_02] They will be like, yeah, you have to buy it because it's huge. Right. [SPEAKER_02] If you're indexing a bunch of stuff and it's in a bunch of indices and you just it gets bought and then you have this thing where it floats up with everything else. [SPEAKER_02] Then the retail cult on top of it is a bonus. Yeah, that makes sense. [SPEAKER_02] There is money flowing out of these really big tech companies into Asian chip companies, though. [SPEAKER_02] Maybe. Or you just have to believe here's the reality, which is not enough people will hold it long term. Right. [SPEAKER_02] They hold other things long term for the tax reasons as well as other things. There's going to be less supply of shares. Right. And then the demand for shares will have much less to do with a specific thesis. [SPEAKER_02] They will be like, yeah, you have to buy it because it's huge. Right. [SPEAKER_02] If you're indexing a bunch of stuff and it's in a bunch of indices and you just it gets bought and then you have this thing where it floats up with everything else. [SPEAKER_02] Then the retail cult on top of it is a bonus. Yeah, that makes sense. [SPEAKER_02] There is money flowing out of these really big tech companies into Asian chip companies, though. [SPEAKER_02] So at some point you have to tolerate your taxes. [SPEAKER_02] But I'm not talking about investors who were in early and have huge markups. I'm just talking about the world's largest money managers who are buying and selling constantly. Yeah, that's just an interesting question of who actually is trading this and for what purposes and what their tax structure is around it, because it is a big thing. [SPEAKER_01] You say, hey, I have fresh money to deploy. Where do I put it? [SPEAKER_01] That's one thing. But the recycling is just killer. [SPEAKER_01] You have to have a very strong thesis. [SPEAKER_01] There's not a lot of new LP money going into the system. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] So I think a lot of it is just, let me explain this thing. [SPEAKER_01] I think this is why I hear a lot of hedge funds targeting retail now because they think that there's certain. The top tech hedge funds have all told me this. They think that the institutional or sovereign wealth is fixed and they'll fight for a slightly more share of that. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] But they have to go to retail or other things. So on that note, bye ladies. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Oh, my God. Wait, what just happened? [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] He dashed and died. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] What is that? [SPEAKER_01] It just happened. [SPEAKER_01] Bottom of the hour meeting at his possible season as a meeting. I just don't like. [SPEAKER_01] Is there any heads up about this? Oh, my God. [SPEAKER_01] Maybe. Honestly, maybe. [SPEAKER_01] Okay. [SPEAKER_01] Wow. It's the Brent and Jess show. Thanks, Sam. We don't need them. Okay. But we have a picture of space. Everyone should comment about this. Give Sam shit on Twitter. Yeah, just text him. I actually didn't even give him a chance. Sam has this weekly email, as many of our listeners will know. And he wrote a particularly introspective one about AI and the crisis of meaning that it is precipitating. [SPEAKER_01] And this being a sort of key issue that has gone undiscussed in society and in the AI productivity. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_03] Even I got feedback on this email, which does it or this post, which it was, he also shared online and apparently spiked his newsletter subscription. [SPEAKER_01] So I was going to let him talk about it, but now I won't. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] Was it positive feedback or negative? [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] Well, I got two types, but it most had an element of, if Sam is on something, please get him off of it. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] That was the prevailing, you know, implying that mushrooms were involved. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Because he was- [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] It was just very philosophical. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_01] Very philosophical. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Philosophical. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Okay. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Philosophical. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Just a little loopy. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] I blame the jet lag. [SPEAKER_02] Okay. [SPEAKER_02] But SpaceX's business, turns out it's not space, folks. [SPEAKER_02] The Star, well, I guess it's space. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Obviously it's Starlink. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Yes. [SPEAKER_03] Three times as big, almost, as space launch. [SPEAKER_03] We were just talking about data centers, compute. This is everything, right? [SPEAKER_01] And I think this is Elon's way of getting data centers in space and everything that we need to power the AI future that we have. [SPEAKER_02] The space launch here that you're showing in this chart is 4 billion out of 19, right? [SPEAKER_02] So it's less- Yeah. It's about less than a quarter. This is something I wonder, and I don't know an answer to this, but how long space economy do you have to be to be bullish SpaceX, right? Because I'm interested as they really embark on their roadshow in earnest, how much part of their thesis is, I mean, I'm sure it's a part, but how much of it is and the space business of launching things into space will be projected to go to whatever, because we're going to have bases on the moon and, you know, defense and all that. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] Elon's moved a lot of his interest from Mars to the moon recently. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_01] It seems- [SPEAKER_02] Yes. [SPEAKER_02] They pivoted to the moon. [SPEAKER_02] Which doesn't bode well for my bet with Sam about- [SPEAKER_02] I was going to point that out. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] When the first human stepping on the moon by 2040, but that wasn't my fault. [SPEAKER_01] Elon's moved a lot of his interest from Mars to the moon recently. [SPEAKER_01] It seems like- [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Yes. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] They pivoted to the moon. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Which doesn't bode well for my bet with Sam about- [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] I was going to point that out. [SPEAKER_02] When the first human stepping on the moon by 2040, but that wasn't my fault. That was Elon changing his strategy. [SPEAKER_01] So if he would have stayed on track- [SPEAKER_01] Which is exactly why Sam and I took the other position, but yes. We'll see. Well, I'm still not giving up my bet yet. 2040 is a long ways away. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_02] But what, any other SpaceX thought? [SPEAKER_02] The other thing I hear that wasn't obvious to me is how much this will be seen. [SPEAKER_02] When the first human stepping on the moon by 2040, but that wasn't my fault. That was Elon changing his strategy. [SPEAKER_01] So if he would have stayed on track— [SPEAKER_01] Which is exactly why Sam and I took the other position, but yes. [SPEAKER_01] We'll see. [SPEAKER_01] Well, I'm still not giving up my bet yet. [SPEAKER_01] 2040 is a long ways away. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_02] But what, any other SpaceX thought? [SPEAKER_02] The other thing I hear that wasn't obvious to me is how much this will be seen. This IPO will be seen as a bellwether for Anthropic and OpenAI, even though there are parts of their business that are competitive, parts not just the idea of, and the test case of a mega, mega— [SPEAKER_02] Of companies that are losing revenue and going out at 90X or 100X their actual revenue on the market. [SPEAKER_02] And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at 800 billion. Well, they're getting offers. [SPEAKER_02] One difficult thing is when a fundraising story becomes a story. Because hot companies, people are sending them emails and writing letters at all moments, right? And so at some point the company decides to do a round or not. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] But don't you think it has to do with all of the momentum in the last month and the OpenAI version, Anthropic everything. And Anthropic's last valuation on paper was 380 or 360, something like that, I believe. And so now they're trying to anchor with OpenAI. I think, and we showed a couple of weeks ago, the revenue chart, the information had in the lines, when will they cross, right? Or will they cross? And so I think it's still unclear. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] At the same time, Anthropic has major capacity issues. Compute has been insane with Anthropic. And we had a story this week about them changing their pricing in partial response to that. And so I don't know where these things stand. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] They stand heavily. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] I think everyone has compute issues though. [SPEAKER_02] It's not just Anthropic. Anthropic is more, the sense of word on the street. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] You can see it either way, right? Then there are also critics of OpenAI who felt they overbuilt. And in fact, the information has a story in the last week about some tensions between Sam Altman and Sarah Fryer, OpenAI's CFO on IPO timing, a lot of which came down to her concerns about these compute commitments and what OpenAI could potentially be left with. So at the same time, there was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic, both for how it calculates ARR and also on this point of having underinvested in compute. So it is a problem for Anthropic. And it was the same memo that was also leaked today about OpenAI's focus on the enterprise moat and how it's not about the model. It's about the entire system. And obviously condensing everything into codecs plus chat and everything else. [SPEAKER_03] I think it leads to what I'm seeing, which is we've talked about this on the pod every episode. All of this is electricity. How do you get someone locked in? [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Because you could switch one model out for another. And if Claude's compute isn't holding up, I'm just going to go over to OpenAI. And everyone at the frontier labs right now seems to think that owning the enterprise and just getting people super reliant on your stack is the only way to stay relevant and to win in the differentiation war. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] Google today launched Gemini on desktop. So Google's coming out hot with their response. And obviously we've got all the developer conferences coming up in May and June. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_02] I was going to say, this is what I see in my team. Starting in March, I'm like, guys, developer conference season, what's coming out? What's coming out? It's going to be an alphabet soup of announcements and code names. But I just think it's still hard to call any of this. I've been in board meetings a lot recently with companies who are like, yes, we're fully moved over to Anthropic. And they show the chart of when everything moved over. [SPEAKER_01] [SPEAKER_03] And it was in December when I'm like, of course, everyone moved over to Anthropic in December, but it's April. [SPEAKER_03] And who knows what April 2027 will bring? Everyone is going to be launching new things all the time. And we have a tiny, tiny engineering team relative to all these companies information. But my conversations with our team are like, OK, what do you think based on roadmap and what you think now? What's our best structure for this? And is it cursor? Is it Claude? Is it what? Whatever it is. I get an answer. And then three weeks later, they're like the answer changed. We think this approach is better. [SPEAKER_03] And then all of a sudden, I have an idea for something. I'm like, I want to build that. And they're like, well, if you want to build that, then the answer has to be that. So of course it's optionality. And obviously big companies are doing these big enterprise deployments. [SPEAKER_03] I mean, how ironic that it's the SaaS strategy when everyone's trying to rip out SaaS. But I also think at some point pricing will play a way bigger role in this. And if these total Anthropic and OpenAI bulls don't acknowledge that for many, many things, you're going to use cheap models. I mean, we have it. Meta's AI works well. And they're like, well, if you want to build that, then the answer has to be that. So of course it's optionality. [SPEAKER_02] And obviously big companies are doing these big enterprise deployments. [SPEAKER_03] I mean, how ironic that it's the SaaS strategy when everyone's trying to rip out SaaS. [SPEAKER_03] But I also think at some point pricing will play a way bigger role in this. [SPEAKER_03] And if these total Anthropic and OpenAI bulls don't acknowledge that for many, many things, you're going to use cheap models. [SPEAKER_03] I mean, we have it. Meta's AI works well. [SPEAKER_03] I mean, it's consumer facing, but it's better at giving you what's happening with tennis than Anthropic. Well, it just depends on the task that you're doing, right? So every company is going to have to orchestrate their local cheap model, super luxury, fancy, but quick and smart model. [SPEAKER_03] How ironic that it's the SaaS strategy when everyone's trying to rip out SaaS. [SPEAKER_03] But I also think at some point pricing will play a way, way bigger role in this. [SPEAKER_03] And if these total Anthropic and OpenAI bulls don't acknowledge that for many things, you're going to use cheap models. [SPEAKER_03] We have it. Meta's AI works well. [SPEAKER_03] It's consumer facing, but it's better at giving you what's happening with tennis than Anthropic. Well, it just depends on the task that you're doing. Right. So every company is going to have to orchestrate their local cheap model with their super luxury, fancy, but quick and smart model. [SPEAKER_03] And it's not going to be about tokens per engineer or whatever Uber and Meta are actually doing on leaderboards right now in their engineering departments. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, because that's not the actual best way to see if people are leveraging AI, right? When did they use the right amount of tokens to get the right amount of success? And I don't know how we're going to measure that, but that seems to be what every CEO is thinking about right now. Do you have companies, Brett, that are token maxing and what do you tell them? And for people who don't, I'm sure our listeners know, but it is wild. [SPEAKER_03] Like their big companies are incentivizing ranking people based on using the most, which equates also to the most expense, which is not historically how P&Ls have been optimized. I think the only facet of that that I like is that right now we're in the part of the curve where you just need everyone in the company to be using this. And so if there's a way to encourage it, it's almost a habit your brain has to learn. Like there was a CEO the other day who was asking me, okay, I'm ready to try Claude. I'm going to get my CTO to help me set it up. And I was like, no, you should just go to Claude or GPT and ask it how to set it up. [SPEAKER_03] And it's learning to think that instead of asking the person I'm going to ask the agent—that's a habit your brain has to learn and switch into. [SPEAKER_03] And for people in engineering, I think that's more native right now or product, but for people in sales or HR or even some non-technical roles, it's not native. [SPEAKER_03] And so the first step is just getting everyone to think AI natively. The second step is then to think about how do I use these tokens more efficiently? And Jess, let me tell you, as a parent of an 11 year old that I know we've talked about on the pod a lot, who is token maxing. We looked at our bill, our token bill for the last month for Ansel, our 11 year old. Guess how much money we had to pay for tokens in the last month that I was just informed. [SPEAKER_03] Less than that, but more than a thousand. [SPEAKER_02] Wow, thousands of dollars. $1,500 of tokens that my 11 year old has inadvertently. Well, not inadvertently, he's got a business. Now you just have to get him selling in-app purchases. I know, but we gotta monetize this thing because the Morin bank account can't sustain $1,500 a month for each child. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, no, Sam also got the boys building games, which is totally like they have just totally subverted all screen time rules by convincing Sam this is in a different category. He doesn't quite see it yet, but it's quite funny to watch. [SPEAKER_02] So what else—did you and Dave talk about the OpenAI New Yorker profile last week by chance? [SPEAKER_02] Well, we had a long laundry list. [SPEAKER_02] I don't know if you, I know you were in Italy and didn't get to catch up because we had Guillermo from Vercel on the episode last week, which was fascinating because he's truly at the center. He's the Switzerland across all the big labs and was telling us all the tea. [SPEAKER_03] It was on the laundry list of news topics, but we didn't get into it. [SPEAKER_02] But I think that, yeah, also Sam Altman's house got attacked twice in the last week. [SPEAKER_03] Yeah. So Sam Altman and OpenAI have definitely been through the thick of things in the last seven to 10 days. [SPEAKER_03] Yeah. No, obviously the violence is tragic and scary. [SPEAKER_03] Just for a second of media criticism, Ronan Farrow had been working on a profile of Sam Altman for, I think he said 18 months. [SPEAKER_03] I caught wind of it a little over a year ago just because he was calling everyone. And the word on the street was that he was probing some really serious allegations, none of which were in the story and actually came out as sort of defending Sam in a lot of context. So it's interesting because I think there's some group of readers, it was a very tough look at his management style and personality and what, for anyone who followed the saga of Sam being ousted as CEO, the piece will be familiar to you because it retread a lot of that ground. But for other people, my inbox is full of people who are saying that could have been much worse. Not much worse because they know of bad things, but there was so much anticipation that this would be this real hit piece and it coming out. And we know Sam was very, very anxious about the piece. The board was anxious about the piece. So from my point of view, it was a nothing burger, but I say that as probably the person in the media who follows this story the most closely. [SPEAKER_03] Well, I think the thing that a lot of people aren't understanding right now is that there's so much competitive pressure amongst all these frontier labs and Mac Seven companies that there's truly oppositional research teams inside each company that I've now heard about for probably five to 10 times for different stories and companies that have been planted by the other. [SPEAKER_03] And it's the nastiest PR setting I've seen in all of tech. I have not seen people do this kind of drastic PR strategy since the early days. [SPEAKER_03] And we know Sam was very, very anxious about the piece. The board was anxious about the piece. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] So from my point of view, it was a nothing burger, but I say that as probably the person in the media who follows this story the most closely. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Well, I think the thing that a lot of people aren't understanding right now is that there's so much competitive pressure amongst all these frontier labs and Mac Seven companies that there's truly oppositional research teams inside each company that I've now heard about for probably five to ten times for different stories and companies that have been planted by the other. [SPEAKER_03] And it's the nastiest PR setting I've seen in all of tech. I have not seen people do this kind of drastic PR strategy since the early days. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] These companies are also these personas and personalities that have all this history. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] And so I actually think for Ronan Farrow, who's the reporter who took down Harvey Weinstein, to come out and not, after 18 months of following what all those competitors were saying, find anything publishable or in some way a relief to people. But it's nasty out there. When we published some of Dario's and Anthropic's internal messages where he talked about why, in the wake of having lost the Department of War contract, it was really a window into his thinking about throwing a lot at OpenAI and that. [SPEAKER_02] And now we're seeing this. So it's memo war. It's the era of the memos. We've reached that point in the cycle. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] But to be continued, I'm sure there'll be a lot more OpenAI news to come. [SPEAKER_03] Brett, what else is cooking? I've got a book recommendation, but what else is... [SPEAKER_03] Wait, hold on. I need to talk about this Carta news that's coming out. [SPEAKER_03] Oh, yes. Yes. [SPEAKER_03] Yeah, I can give you what's happening in venture capital land, which is... [SPEAKER_03] We've been saying we're in the bubble for a long time, a year or two years, but truly we are in the bubble of all bubbles. [SPEAKER_02] And I don't know how sustainable this is. So Carta announced the seed valuations are skyrocketing more than ever before. [SPEAKER_02] Between Q4 and Q1, things went completely vertical. Now the top 5% of seed rounds are topping $175 million valuations. [SPEAKER_02] Oh my God. 3X over the last year. Wow. And even the 75th percentile or 50th percentile, we're talking about $45 million seed rounds, which is insane. A typical seed round used to be $15 million, maybe $20. You're by 10% for a million and a half, $2 million. And now if you're doing that, you're actually under the 25th percentile. So it's totally crazy. And you might think, wow, this sounds a lot like 2021. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] And actually it's double 2021. So it's twice as bad as 2021. If there's a graph that I can share, Carta also announced today. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] And it is the top 10% of startup valuations for Series D, C, B, et cetera, are now 200 to 300% higher than 2021. [SPEAKER_02] I really hope we're going to see a lot of trillion dollar companies out of this AI boom. [SPEAKER_02] Does this make you sweat, Brett, as an investor? What is the takeaway one should draw from this? So we're about to go out and raise our next fund. Can you say that? Haven't you just violated some major thing? Okay, I should take that. Let me start that again. You're fine. You said you're about to. You haven't. We're about to. We're not in process of fundraising. Just make sure you're not soliciting something. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] I'm not soliciting investors, but we're going to raise our next fund soon. And I'm doing a lot of data gathering about portfolio construction and all these things. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] When you run a portfolio construction model as a venture capitalist, you're saying, okay. I've got a hundred or $200 million fund size. I'm going to make X many bets at this amount of dollar per check in this fund. And typically that would be very easy to forecast because I'm going to make $32 million checks and this many angel checks, et cetera. And this much for follow on. Now I'm asking, am I going to make $32 million checks or am I going to make $10 million checks? Or am I going to blend? Where is this? Are you following where inflation is going? And if so, do I need to project that out over the next two to three years? Is the AI bubble going to keep going? Is it going to fall dramatically? There's all these questions you're asking yourself that you then need to communicate to LPs who are going to be, a lot of them, not the most sophisticated ones, but a lot of them are going to be, well, this doesn't compute in my spreadsheet. We want 10% in every company for $20 million. [SPEAKER_02] And so, I think that it's just this active conversation ongoing between GPs and LPs right now of where do we even mark these things? [SPEAKER_02] And at the end of the day, you don't want to be in the lower quartile of companies because the ones that are able to command the higher valuations tend to be statistically the most successful. [SPEAKER_02] So it's this blessing and curse where it's, should I pay up and how much of my fund do I put in at a $200 million valuation for a seed round? [SPEAKER_02] That's what's going to return your fund unless it doesn't collapse. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] At the end of the day, what I've come to is it just has to be what percentage of the fund is going in rather than what percentage of equity you're getting out of these companies. [SPEAKER_03] Right. Because if I'm putting in a 5% bet from the fund, that's a 5 million check on a $100 million fund. [SPEAKER_03] That's significant. Right. And if you can 100X that 5% check, you're in great territory. [SPEAKER_03] So anyway, I think fund math is changing and no one really knows how long we're going to be in this bubble. [SPEAKER_03] But if you look at that same chart I just showed of what happened in 2021, the bubble only lasted for a year and a half or so. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] At the end of the day, what I've come to is it just has to be what percentage of the fund is going in rather than what percentage of equity you're getting out of these companies. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Right. Because if I'm putting in a 5% bet from the fund, that's a 5 million check on a $100 million fund. That's significant. Right. And if you can 100X that 5% check, you're in great territory. So anyway, I think fund math is changing and no one really knows how long we're going to be in this bubble. But if you look at that same chart I just showed of what happened in 2021, the bubble only lasted for a year and a half or so. But this is AI. People are saying AI is going to last longer. What is AI even? What is a bubble? [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] I do have to bounce a second to do my real job, but I got to plug Lena Dunham's new book, Fame Sick. Old school Lena Dunham. I haven't paid attention to what she's doing in a lot of years since Girls on HBO. [SPEAKER_02] [SPEAKER_03] Yeah. Since Girls, well, I think this is her journey, which has had ups and downs and horrors and shows, some shows, some creative pursuits. [SPEAKER_03] But I obviously loved Girls when it came out as a 20-something in New York. And anyway, I'm maybe 10, 15% into the book, but I'm loving every word. She's an exquisite writer. [SPEAKER_03] And I'm just excited to find time to keep reading it. So for our female audience out there. I'll give another female audience media plug. [SPEAKER_03] And then I have a really interesting airline news announcement and then we can wrap. Margo's got money problems. New show on Apple TV just started last night. [SPEAKER_03] It's Michelle Pfeiffer, old school. And Elle Fanning and Dakota Fanning. And a new series that I find, I watched the first episode and really liked. And then I'm going to write that down in other news. Airlines, you know, United is now launching this where you could get the full row in coach and it expands into a bed. This was in United's big news. [SPEAKER_03] Now, Air New Zealand and other airlines are starting to prototype bunk beds in economy class, meaning literally triple stacked rows vertically on each side that you actually don't sleep in the whole flight. [SPEAKER_03] You sit in a chair in the regular coach and for 500 extra bucks on your long haul flight, you get four hours in the bunk bed to have a nap. And I don't know how I feel about sleeping. How do you wake someone up? I have a lot of questions. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Triple decker, and plus the snoring. I just can't. I'm not going to be in the bunk next to the snoring dude. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] And obviously you want the top bunk. There's so much strategy that goes into this, but I'm interested in all of the innovation happening in airline configurations and customer appeal right now. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] So fun fact. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, that is a fun fact. Yeah. [SPEAKER_03] It's, I think that family row in United is cool. Although I did today, I fly a lot of United, but not enough. I asked United, I gave my stats to Chat GPT and I'm like, am I close to 1K? And they're like, no, I was like, oh, okay, not in global services. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] So I'm feeling a little down, but okay, well, it's been a pleasure. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Thanks for staying on for the allotted commitment that was made to you, that you agreed to in your calendar. But we, I guess, have to thank the dear listeners and viewers who stuck with us this far for the Brit and Jess show. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] We should have a quorum next week, I think. But time will tell. Sam may decide to go to the office again, which will leave us all stunned. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, no more Sam going to the office. I prefer him in the pool house. I mean, obviously we have to revisit the fact that no one in his team was there and then they were pretending they were going for a walk. I think that's wonderful. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] So with that, we'll say toodaloo and see you back here next week for another episode of More or Less. [SPEAKER_03] [SPEAKER_02] Bye. Bye, guys. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson, and as for me, I'm at Brit. See you guys next time. [SPEAKER_02] I just can't. I'm not going to be in the bunk next to the snoring dude. And obviously you want the top bunk. There's so much strategy that goes into this, but I'm interested in all of the innovation happening in airline configurations and customer appeal right now. [SPEAKER_02] So fun fact. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, that is a fun fact. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. It's cool that family row in United. Although I did today, I fly a lot of United, but not enough. I asked United, I gave my stats to ChatGPT and I'm thinking, am I close to 1K? And they're like, no, I was like, oh, okay, not in global services. [SPEAKER_02] So I'm feeling a little down, but okay, well, it's been a pleasure. Thanks for staying on for the allotted commitment that was made to you, that you agreed to in your calendar. But we have to thank the dear listeners and viewers who stuck with us this far for the Brit and Jess show. We should have a quorum next week, I think. But time will tell. Sam may decide to go to the office again, which will leave us all stunned. [SPEAKER_02] No more Sam going to the office. I prefer him in the pool house. Obviously we have to revisit the fact that no one in his team was there and then they were pretending they were going for a walk. I think that's wonderful. So with that, we'll say toodaloo and see you back here next week for another episode of More or Less. Bye. [SPEAKER_03] Bye, guys. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson, and as for me, I'm at Brit. See you guys next time. How do you wake someone up? I have a lot of questions. [SPEAKER_02] Triple decker, and plus the snoring. [SPEAKER_02] I just can't. I'm not going to be in the bunk next to the snoring dude. [SPEAKER_02] And obviously you want the top bunk. [SPEAKER_02] There's so much strategy that goes into this, but I'm interested in all of the innovation happening in airline configurations and customer appeal right now. [SPEAKER_02] So fun fact. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, that is a fun fact. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. It's, I think that family row in United is cool. Although I did today, I fly a lot of United, but not enough. I asked United, I gave my stats to Chat GPT and I'm like, am I close to 1K? And they're like, no, I was like, oh, okay, not in global services. [SPEAKER_02] So I'm feeling a little down, but okay, well, it's been a pleasure. [SPEAKER_02] Thanks for staying on for the allotted commitment that was made to you, that you agreed to in your calendar. But we, I guess, have to thank the dear listeners and viewers who stuck with us this far for the Brit and Jess show. [SPEAKER_02] We should have a quorum next week, I think. But time will tell. Sam may decide to go to the office again, which will leave us all stunned. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, no more Sam going to the office. I prefer him in the pool house. I mean, obviously we have to revisit the fact that no one in his team was there and then they were pretending they were going for a walk. I think that's wonderful. [SPEAKER_02] So with that, we'll say toodaloo and see you back here next week for another episode of More or Less. [SPEAKER_02] Bye. Bye, guys. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, [SPEAKER_03] at Jay Lesson, [SPEAKER_03] and as for me, [SPEAKER_03] I'm at Brit. [SPEAKER_03] See you guys next time. I just can't, I'm like, I'm not going to be in the bunk next to the snoring dude. And obviously you want the top bunk. There's like so much strategy that goes into this, but I'm interested in all of the innovation happening in airline configurations and customer appeal right now. So fun fact. Yeah, that is a fun fact. Yeah. It's, I think that family row in United is cool. Although I did today, I fly a lot of United, but not enough. I asked United, I asked, I gave my stats to chat TPT and I'm like, am I close to 1K? And they're like, no, I was like, oh, okay, not in global services. So I'm feeling a little, a little down, but okay, well, it's been a pleasure. Thanks for staying on for the allotted commitment that was made to you, that you agreed to in your calendar. But we, I guess, have to thank the dear listeners and viewers who stuck with us this far for the Brit and Jess show. We should have a quorum next week, I think. But time will tell. Sam may decide to go to the office again, which will leave us all stunned. Yeah, no more Sam going to the office. I prefer him in the pool house. I mean, obviously we have to revisit the fact that like no one in his team was there and then they were pretending they were going for a walk. I think that's wonderful. So with that, we'll say toodaloo and see you back here next week for another episode of More or Less. Bye. Bye, guys. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson, and as for me, I'm at Brit. See you guys next time.