SPEAKER_03
I also want to call out Elon Musk's salary and comp package is now tied to the Mars colonization happening. So I feel like that bodes well in my favor for the 2040 bet.
SPEAKER_01
Britt's just worried about her bet with you, Sam. I'm counting on Sam's next secret project to pay for this bet.
SPEAKER_02
Listen, Britt, here's the beautiful thing. If Elon lands on Mars and hits that comp package, I will have made so much money that I won't even notice the million dollars that I owe.
SPEAKER_03
Great. All I care is about the million dollars. Well, that is a great emotional hedge to me.
SPEAKER_02
I feel like you just conceded. I feel like you just conceded the bet to me.
SPEAKER_03
Why, hello, friends. Welcome to More or Less. Hey, Jess.
SPEAKER_00
What's cooking, Morrence?
SPEAKER_04
Had the best music weekend ever.
SPEAKER_01
True.
SPEAKER_04
Stagecoach.
SPEAKER_01
And we got evacuated.
SPEAKER_03
We go to Indio, California for very different reasons. Then what? I go for tennis. [SPEAKER_01] No, Jess goes for tennis.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] I know. She goes to Coachella, too.
SPEAKER_03
We're just the country crowd at Stagecoach. [SPEAKER_01] But it's not even just country anymore.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] It was a 90s reunion.
SPEAKER_03
We had Third Eye Blind, Hootie and the Blowfish. Who else? Wallflowers. Wallflowers. Oh, my God. One Headlight. So good. [SPEAKER_01] Journey, but didn't get to perform because of the evacuation.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] And Ludacris.
SPEAKER_03
Ludacris and Pitbull. They stopped believing in Stagecoach. No, there were 60 mile an hour winds. It was tornado style and trees were falling on people. [SPEAKER_01] Some people got injured.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] So they just shut everything down.
SPEAKER_03
And then an hour later, the wind stopped. And so half the people left and didn't come back. But the rest of us did. And it was awesome. It was Stagecoach with half the crowd. So that was really fun. Britt, I say this not as a leading question, but tell me about how long did it take you to buy your Stagecoach outfits? It just seems like you were dressed to the nines. I was. Was this a whole process? [SPEAKER_04] Oh, it was a process. [SPEAKER_04] I consulted with many fashionable friends. [SPEAKER_04] Very good outfits. [SPEAKER_04] But it's a thing at Stagecoach. It's the Coachella and Stagecoach.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] And actually, all the fashion brands this week are doing wrap-up reports and leveraging Stagecoach and Coachella fashion in my feeds. [SPEAKER_01] They're tuning into new trends for summer based on Stagecoach and Coachella fashion that happened. [SPEAKER_03] So I might have been a trendsetter for summer 2026. [SPEAKER_03] Can you just cut to the chase then?
SPEAKER_03
Because I don't think this pod audience is known as the most fashionable audience on the planet. [SPEAKER_04] Well, that's why I got to bring this flavor to the group here. But tell us, so what's going to be on trend this summer?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Well, you either go booty shorts or long jorts.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] Jorts are back. [SPEAKER_04] There were a lot of jorts. Jeans that actually look like shorts. So does a jort hit mid-calf? Where does a jort hit? [SPEAKER_01] It's right above the knee. It's almost a Bermuda short, but jeans. Okay, that's not a jort.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] That's a long short. [SPEAKER_03] Okay. [SPEAKER_03] We better get to the tech, you guys. [SPEAKER_03] Okay.
SPEAKER_03
Sorry. We're losing people. [SPEAKER_01] No, I don't think so.
SPEAKER_01
I think there are plenty of people who want to know what to wear for summer.
SPEAKER_03
What? You guys are the worst. OpenAI or jorts? [SPEAKER_04] OpenAI or jorts? [SPEAKER_04] You want to talk about OpenAI? [SPEAKER_04] Let's go. [SPEAKER_04] OpenAI or booty shorts? [SPEAKER_04] That's the real question. [SPEAKER_04] Just saying.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] I could talk about all kinds of categories today.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] So just throw it at me, Jess. [SPEAKER_01] I'm good. [SPEAKER_01] Okay, Britt, put it in the chat.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] I want to know. [SPEAKER_03] Summer packing season is here. [SPEAKER_03] Britt, please don't convince my wife to buy jorts. I already bought some in Paris. [SPEAKER_03] I said booty shorts. [SPEAKER_03] Booty shorts or jorts. [SPEAKER_03] It's both. [SPEAKER_02] Sam, I saw you posting hot photos of your wife on Instagram.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] And we've got some good outfits for her. [SPEAKER_03] I try to be the cheering squad here.
SPEAKER_03
I will say it's my most viral Threads post ever. It was pretty funny. [SPEAKER_01] It's cute how much you post hot photos of Jess, Sam. [SPEAKER_01] I have to say. [SPEAKER_02] Listen, I try to be supportive. [SPEAKER_02] I do think my wife's attractive. [SPEAKER_02] You are very supportive, Sam.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] I don't know if that's kidding or not. No, I don't know sarcasm.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] That sounded sincere, Sam. [SPEAKER_02] I'll be your interpreter on this one. [SPEAKER_02] I give it 50-50.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Britt, zip it. [SPEAKER_04] You're not invited.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] Britt might have better information than you, Dave. [SPEAKER_01] You and I are just golden retriever puppy dogs. [SPEAKER_03] We don't know what the fuck is going on.
SPEAKER_03
Okay, guys, I'm looking at the docket. Here's the docket.
SPEAKER_02
We've gone old school. So I was wrong. [SPEAKER_04] I know it rarely happens. [SPEAKER_04] I predicted that there may be a rapprochement between Musk and Altman.
SPEAKER_04
I predicted.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] I did. [SPEAKER_04] I'm going to own.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] I am going to own my mistakes. [SPEAKER_04] I make plenty of them. [SPEAKER_04] I was wondering about that.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] I was like, Jess said this was going to be over. [SPEAKER_04] I said I thought. [SPEAKER_03] Okay, guys, I'm looking at the docket. Here's the docket.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] We've gone old school. So I was wrong. I know it rarely happens. I predicted that there may be a rapprochement between Musk and Altman. I predicted. I did. I'm going to own. I am going to own my mistakes. I make plenty of them. I was wondering about that. I was like, Jess said this was going to be over. I said I thought. I thought my guess would be, and my guess was wrong. Good to know. [SPEAKER_01] Good thing I don't guess for a living. I report.
SPEAKER_04
But the trial is underway, and we'll have to circle back to it because we'll have to get into it, because Musk talked about the information from the stand today. You know it must be a hot topic when Musk is telling the jury that he learned about an important OpenAI fundraising from the information, not from Altman, immediately texting him the article, asking him, is this true? So, Elon, thank you for the shout out. That was today. That was today. Oh, wow. I wasn't sure. Was there going to be still more stand testimony and whatnot today or what the schedule is? [SPEAKER_01] You mean testimony, Dave? The testimony?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] Yes. Stand testimony. I can't. I can't function. Guys, I haven't been to a music festival since before the pandemic. [SPEAKER_01] So just give me some grace. Dave, it is midweek. You are still hungover from a midweek. We are too. And I don't even drink, and I'm still hungover.
SPEAKER_04
You know, I'm with you. I can relate to that. But no, well, let's catch everyone up on this trial. So it's midweek. The trial's been underway since the start of the week. I was going to say the jury was impaneled. Is that what you call a jury? You don't call it impounding. Impaneled. Impaneled. The jury was impaneled. Sam Altman and Greg Brockman attended jury selection. Highly unusual. No one ever attends jury selection. So that was very interesting. [SPEAKER_01] Really? It's not they don't have anything to deal with on the home front.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Exactly. That will be topic number two. Then we got to the judge putting a gag order on Musk, Altman, and Brockman using social media during this trial. [SPEAKER_02] What's the over-under on that holding?
SPEAKER_04
Well, here's the thing. This trial is not on TechMeme. It's not on Business Insider. No one cares about this trial. [SPEAKER_02] Oh, it's on the Today Show. The general public cares about the trial. That's funny. The tech world is much more focused on other things. That's very funny to me that if you don't let them tweet, how will anyone make money on the news and media? [SPEAKER_03] Well, information subscribers are getting their updates. [SPEAKER_02] But to your point, as briefs, not as major news, as briefs. I liked the quote from the judge. The judge was like, do I have to put a gag order on you? That's true.
SPEAKER_04
But I think she officially banned it. She also, Musk takes the stand and just starts talking. [SPEAKER_01] No question. And he just looks at the jury. And he's like, first of all, whoever's making this movie should be channeling me at this moment. But he was like, this is a case about whether you can steal a charity. And if this case is decided in their favor, every charity in America or something like that is vulnerable. And the judge just says, you don't have to listen to him. That is not a legal opinion. That's so good. So anyway, we're on day... You know, a couple days into it. I think Musk is being cross-examined. Brockman and Altman will ultimately take the stand.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] But still more witnesses on the Musk side. I don't know, guys. The legal experts think Musk has a tough road here. So... [SPEAKER_01] Really? Why? Just because of the letter of the law. Not the spirit of it, but the letter of it.
SPEAKER_01
Oh, yes. It does come down to the letter.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] How long is this case going to last? Do we know?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] Is this weeks? Months? What are we thinking? [SPEAKER_04] Days? [SPEAKER_03] Days? It's about... It's scheduled to last about a month, which I think maybe includes some of the expected jury deliberation. I'm actually not clear on that part. Is this a month every day? What if you're the person chosen for this jury?
SPEAKER_04
That'd be cool. I somehow doubt that Jessica would be chosen for this jury.
SPEAKER_01
So wait, Jess, what is the letter here? They should just put arbitration lesson style. [SPEAKER_03] Do you have a sense for what the letter of the law is? Do I have a detailed sense of what the law is? [SPEAKER_02] No, to be honest. Other than it's like...
SPEAKER_04
I mean, there are plenty of entities that have gone from being nonprofits to having a for-profit structure. Remember, technically, this is a for-profit nested under a governing nonprofit, if we really need to bring up the flowchart. That is not unprecedented. And I don't know legally how important this argument is, but OpenAI keeps saying he wanted to convert it into a for-profit that he controlled. And he's only...
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] Do I have a detailed sense of what the law is? [SPEAKER_02] No, to be honest. Other than it's... [SPEAKER_04] There are plenty of entities that have gone from being nonprofits to having a for-profit structure. for-profit structure. [SPEAKER_04] Remember, technically, this is a for-profit nested under a governing nonprofit, if we really need to bring up the flowchart. That is not unprecedented.
SPEAKER_04
And I don't know legally how important this argument is, but OpenAI keeps saying he wanted to convert it into a for-profit that he controlled. And he's only... And because we wouldn't make this a for-profit company that he could control that could potentially be merged with Tesla, he went off and started his own thing.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] So the point is that he was on board with this strategy.
SPEAKER_04
The facts that I've seen don't support that that was what was going on. There was a lot of, in the very beginning, should this be a for-profit? Should this be a nonprofit? Should we do both in parallel? These are standard conversations that literally everybody has at the beginning of any of these things. [SPEAKER_01] But there were... [SPEAKER_01] Those conversations continued past the founding to this dispute. [SPEAKER_01] I see. [SPEAKER_01] I think this is a classic scenario. If you always end up in lawsuits for the thing that no longer matters, it's OpenAI isn't even the biggest AI company anymore. It's just classic.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] The law is always so laggy that we're litigating a thing where the cat's out of the bag on all the data being stolen. We're arguing about pennies in terms of what goes into a foundation or not. It's great WWE entertainment, but if they can't tweet about it, then the entertainment value goes down. And we're litigating the number two AI player now. What are we doing? [SPEAKER_02] Sam, I think it's interesting. The data question is clearly not even part of the narrative. [SPEAKER_02] I know. This is the spirit of the letter. We're not even having the right lawsuit. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, totally. It's fine.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] It is what it is. The right lawsuit will never happen. There are some other lawsuits that we should follow, the New York Times and OpenAI, which you're reminding me, Sam. [SPEAKER_02] No, because they're just going to lose. It's one of those things. This is the spirit of the letter. But isn't that the one? But Sam, isn't that the one that you care about? The New York Times one? [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, but it's not going to. But they're clearly going to.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] I mean, that is the correct intellectual lawsuit. But that lawsuit, I just can't imagine that OpenAI, the cat's out of the bag. It's just not going to happen. That lawsuit will be successful. It's a good.
SPEAKER_02
It's standing on good moral ground. But that's never going to happen. This is the wrong lawsuit. It's happening. Whatever. It's a sideshow. And then, again, the backdrop is this is what always happens in the law. You're litigating last year's issue. This is not even the right company to be going after. If you care. I mean, I don't want to go after any company just for the sake of going after them. But it's very funny to me that the trial starts the week that what happens is what we said was going to happen, which is that Anthropic passed OpenAI. But also you could argue that Elon is doing this as a way to put a road bump in front of OpenAI.
SPEAKER_02
Yeah, but it's you're road bumping the second place runner.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] I don't care. He doesn't care. He's trying to get XAI to be a little bit further ahead and buy some runway. [SPEAKER_03] No, no. [SPEAKER_02] Well, Elon's just flexing power because he needs to support the narrative that Elon always wins, which is, by the way, very smart for him. I'm pro that. [SPEAKER_03] But I also think he's trying to throw a road bump in front of them. [SPEAKER_02] And meanwhile, OpenAI, as someone who follows the general American, he's also doing this whole press campaign. I'm watching the press campaigns around all of this because I'm interested in the marketing and PR strategy everyone's running.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] And OpenAI, Sam Altman also went on the morning show circuit. He did interviews. He's talking about the future of AI and how good it can be for the world and curing Alzheimer's and the foundation and how much money they're pouring into curing diseases. So I think it's the timeliness of these things is interesting when you look at the whole narrative strategy across the whole ecosystem right now.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] I agree. So let's talk about the business horse race because it's been six and a half days since we last talked about this business horse race. But there have been some new developments. The Wall Street Journal finally renewed their Information subscription and read the articles that we have been writing over the last eight weeks, which included everything from missing targets of ChatGPT users to debates between the CFO and CEO over IPO timing.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] They added the information that is pertinent, which would certainly be newsworthy on its own, that they have also missed revenue targets for ChatGPT recently, although we don't know by how much. And we already knew that they missed the user targets, but revenue targets are important. So good detail. The markets have decided that this is a catastrophe. But Sam, what's your take on this and why are you very bullish on Anthropic besides your own cloud code usage?
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] I mean, I think I've been using Anthropic a lot right now in cloud code, but I actually just, as I've been saying all along, that's the car he's driving. It's called him drive, but I also don't care about the car. It's not the Miata. It's not the Miata. It doesn't matter to me.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] This is the thing. I think, again, the story of AI that made these things such huge valuation dollar things was that there'd be some race. AGI or wins is worth infinity. [SPEAKER_04] I'm not sure I've been using Anthropic a lot right now in cloud code, but I've been saying all along that's the car he's driving. It's called him drive, but I also don't care about the car. It's not the Miata though. It's not the Miata. It doesn't matter to me.
SPEAKER_02
This is the thing. I think the story of AI that made these things such huge valuation dollar things was that there'd be some race. AGI over wins is worth infinity. [SPEAKER_04] And that's clearly not true. And I think being the leader for so long and then flatlining revenue while someone else passes you just proves that that's not true.
SPEAKER_02
Google's earnings proves that's not true. It's just going to be a highly competitive space where I don't know where the margin comes from because I do use cloud code a lot. I love it. It's great. I don't give a shit. I'd switch tomorrow. It's all commodity to me. It's super useful. I have amazing tools running, but it's just cost per token and how good it is.
SPEAKER_02
Yeah. And I just don't see the world in which there's any differentiation on these things. So to me, the whole OpenAI thing is less about it having anything to do with reality. It's just narrative weaving. And cap and cost of capital. And I just don't understand how if once we saw, I mean, we talked about this weeks ago on the pod when the number you on Jessica's chart. I'm like, oh, I know how this works. And so I was clearly going to cross OpenAI. And the point is not that like who's going for place one and going to be the Uber. It's just like, no, actually, it's all commodity.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] One of the more interesting things that I've been thinking about on this front is that the tokens are so expensive when you're using them at the maximum amount that people that are on the frontier using tokens to build things, it's really expensive. I've been telling people a lot that the best open claw implementations, for example, are on the order of a thousand dollars or more per month. And when you think about that as a consumer product, that's wildly too expensive. [SPEAKER_00] Right.
SPEAKER_01
But when you think about it in terms of replacing actual labor or doing a job, which is how a lot of people are thinking about these things, that's thirty six thousand a year, which actually seems quite cheap for an assistant or something. And so what is Anthropic's actual incentive to charge a lower and lower price when actually what they're competing against is the price of labor? Don't they have an actual incentive to charge the maximum amount per token, not try to bring the price down, which I think is interesting. Do they have more margin there than it seems, Sam? I'd also say the thing for me is very obvious is Anthropic is really expensive relative to everything else. You can have ways to make it more expensive. That's what I'm saying. Isn't there more elasticity here because people are thinking about it in terms of replacing labor, not being a consumer?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Look, I don't even think it's that sophisticated. The open source models are getting really good. Really good.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] Yeah, totally. I work with them every day. What's the best one? What's the best one? Gemma. Do you think Sam? [SPEAKER_01] I mean, I think we could debate which one of the best ones, but everyone. Gemma, Minimax, Quen. With Quen, people are saying the embeddings in Quen are better than they are in OpenAI. [SPEAKER_01] So this stuff is moving so quickly and the open source is getting so good that if, basically, let's pretend that there's going to be a general good, I care what the cost of tokens is type of intelligence. An open route or whatever. That's most of what's going on.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] Most of what people need is super, super fancy calculators, right? It's not the fucking, you don't need a PhD to be your assistant, right? And so the vast majority of tokens and spend in the market, the Good Morning America audience is going to be going for cheap Quen effectively over time. And it's going to be because they care about the cost, right? That's going to be the audience. There will be assholes like me and Dave who are, actually, I want PhDs doing all the work and I'm willing to pay five times as much because I don't care, right?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] Well, but we're building software. I'm messing around. I'm just saying the point is there's going to be a high-end token market, right? Where you're, yeah, yeah, yeah. I just want marginally better. I'm not sure how much better. I'm willing to pay five times as much. That might be the only part of the market that makes sense. And Anthropic seems to be very focused on that market. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, I mean, Anthropic is the luxury token provider. [SPEAKER_02] So you can be the luxury. I mean, there might be a thinking luxury token provider that actually does generate margin. And maybe that's what they're going for. [SPEAKER_01] But this idea, you want to be...
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] I don't know. I don't think so, Sam, because I think they are today the luxury token provider. But I think you're right. And this is what I'm seeing in the OpenClaw ecosystem is that the open source models are replacing every single use case where they can. And they're doing it extremely quickly. [SPEAKER_01] Right. Because why would you? [SPEAKER_02] And so this is left, right, all the way up and down the stack. Every entrepreneur in my portfolio is swapping out open source models for everything.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] And of course you would, right? Because that's your margin.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] Well, right this second, I feel like there's still this world, though, of people who are... [SPEAKER_01] I've heard this from a lot of entrepreneurs. They're in this moment we're experimenting with experimental budgets. We're spending way too much on Claude. [SPEAKER_02] And they're doing it extremely quickly. [SPEAKER_01] Right. [SPEAKER_01] Because why would you pay? [SPEAKER_01] And so this is left, right, all the way up and down the stack. [SPEAKER_01] Every entrepreneur in my portfolio is swapping out open source models for everything. [SPEAKER_02] And of course you would, right? [SPEAKER_02] Because that's your margin.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Well, right this second, I feel like there's still this world, though, of people who are...
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] I've heard this from a lot of entrepreneurs.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_01] They're in this moment we're experimenting with experimental budgets.
SPEAKER_01
We're spending way too much on Claude. But we don't care because later we'll just drop the cost.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] Right? [SPEAKER_02] And I think that's the right mentality. [SPEAKER_02] And look, again, I go back to imagine they were humans. [SPEAKER_02] And let's pretend Claude is a triple PhD that's really expensive. [SPEAKER_02] You're gonna... [SPEAKER_02] But you're not gonna... [SPEAKER_02] You might have them do a little bit of stuff, but it's not the vast majority of your work. [SPEAKER_02] Right?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] And so I think the reality is the vast, vast majority of work, everyone will just go to cheaper labor and no one's gonna make money on it. [SPEAKER_02] Even enterprise, though? [SPEAKER_02] Enterprise in 10% of luxury consumers is the TAM for Claude.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] But you wouldn't in the enterprise either, Britt.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] You'd want to... [SPEAKER_02] You know, you don't want to be this, what did I see?
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] The Uber CFO or something a week ago being, we blew through 100% of our token budget in 15 days of this month for the entire year.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] Right?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] No CFO is gonna put up with that.
SPEAKER_01
Kip, related to this, have you guys seen the...
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] I think Altman said on some podcasts that they're looking at outcome-based pricing. [SPEAKER_01] What do you guys think of this? [SPEAKER_01] Is this one of the... [SPEAKER_01] I'm not gonna say the solves because that's really lame, but one of the solutions... Wait, so what did he say? I haven't seen this. I think he said they were just looking... But there's this concept. I've heard more and more people talk about it. [SPEAKER_01] And Sierra, for example, only charges its customers if AI successfully completes a customer service interaction. [SPEAKER_01] That's smart. And it's called outcome-based pricing. It's not gonna give you the best business model.
SPEAKER_04
Right now what they're doing is charging luxury prices for luxury tokens and getting away with revenue murder.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Right? Well, it's more than that, Dave, because they're also just charging for people who aren't using them because they're doing blanket seat licenses across companies when 10% are active users and 30% are mid-users and no one else is using it. [SPEAKER_04] It's CPM versus CPA, right? There'll be some CPA-type exercises where you can get them. What do you mean by that, Sam, for everybody that doesn't know? [SPEAKER_04] Well, CPM is you charge for 1,000 impressions with the early internet.
SPEAKER_04
You just charge for 1,000 tokens, whatever. [SPEAKER_02] Right?
SPEAKER_02
CPA is you start saying, no, I only want to pay for people who sign up for my thing. [SPEAKER_01] You pay more for the CPA, but it's more aligned, right? And I... I think that's right, actually. And I don't know. This is the first time I've heard this episode. I think that's probably right. That there'll be a... [SPEAKER_01] I just made it up. [SPEAKER_01] Well, I know, but I think that's probably right, what Jess is saying. [SPEAKER_01] People paying for the outcome, incentivize...
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] Maybe that's the new agent-as-a-service model where you pay me based on accomplishing the job I actually tell you I'm doing, rather than being you're going to pay me some marginal price on top of the tokens.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] It's just a race to the bottom, though. I would pay more for the less revs I have to do to get the agent to do what I want it to do.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] So more efficient paths to the outcome. [SPEAKER_01] Really? [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] It's annoying to babysit these agents and be like, no, I asked for this. [SPEAKER_03] I needed it to do these three things. [SPEAKER_03] Britt, your agent is supposed to babysit the agents. [SPEAKER_01] I know, but my agent was making me a model today, and then it didn't embed the formula, so I had to go back and...
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] Yeah, Britt, you need Sam and I's agents. [SPEAKER_03] I have good agents, guys, and I have a lot of them.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] Because they mostly get it right. [SPEAKER_03] By the way, this is one of my favorite things that Peter Steinberger always says to me, which is that he would rather pull requests be prompt requests because his agents are so good, they can just handle any prompt you throw at them.
SPEAKER_01
And mine are pretty good. [SPEAKER_03] Sam's pretty good. [SPEAKER_03] It's an interesting new idea. I want to rank all of our... How do we rank our agents on whose is best?
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] It's, I want gladiator agent edition, and I want to know who wins in the end. [SPEAKER_01] Tell them to hack each other and steal each other's token. [SPEAKER_01] I think this is the next big entertainment thing on the internet. [SPEAKER_03] Oh my God, I hope not, if that's what we're left with. [SPEAKER_03] I mean, look, I do think... [SPEAKER_03] Elon's definitely going to go there. I just... [SPEAKER_03] Look, the smart people I talk to are all like, this is classic. You know, people always argue about people are too obsessed with Adam Smith and the invisible hand. They're no, you can never make money on anything because efficiency.
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[SPEAKER_03] That's obviously not true. But I would say, I think this one's tending towards the cost of energy much faster than anyone wants to admit. And look, that's why, again, the cynical take on OpenAI or some of these people who have been raising gajillions of dollars and then plowing it back. It's not just OpenAI, Sam. No, I'm just... [SPEAKER_03] Look, the smart people I talk to are all like, this is classic. People always argue about people being too obsessed with Adam Smith and the invisible hand. They're like, no, you can never make money on anything because efficiency.
SPEAKER_03
That's obviously not true.
SPEAKER_02
But I would say I think this one's tending towards the cost of energy much faster than anyone wants to admit. And that's why, the cynical take on OpenAI or some of these people who have been raising gajillions of dollars and then plowing it back. It's not just OpenAI, Sam.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] It's Anthropic, too.
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I think Anthropic's peril is actually much more obvious. Well, they're both... [SPEAKER_01] But the basic point is these companies that went out with these narratives and raised very high-priced money to then buy 20 cents of infrastructure... [SPEAKER_01] The infrastructure is worth not zero.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_01] It is infrastructure. [SPEAKER_01] You're going to run something in it, right? [SPEAKER_02] But it is a commodity business, right? [SPEAKER_02] And it's a great one. [SPEAKER_02] I really enjoy it. [SPEAKER_02] But it's definitely a commodity business with tech multiples. [SPEAKER_02] It is interesting. [SPEAKER_02] One of the things that I've been thinking about a lot is how much all of these things are just abstractions for inference.
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[SPEAKER_02] The deeper you get into building harnesses and building stuff that sits right in front of the inference layer, the more you realize that all of these things are just terminal UIs and things for pure inference costs, right? [SPEAKER_02] In the end of the day, we're just multiplying big numbers, man.
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[SPEAKER_01] It's just a big calculator. [SPEAKER_01] So if you're OpenAI and Anthropic, what is your pricing strategy in the enterprise? [SPEAKER_01] Because you know that open source is getting to parity on many things. [SPEAKER_01] It's not clear that's obvious, Jess. [SPEAKER_01] I actually think this is not being talked about enough. [SPEAKER_02] But didn't you just say open source... But wait, I thought you said open source is good. It is. [SPEAKER_01] But what I'm saying is that I don't know anyone... I don't see this in the public narrative and conversation right now. What are they going to do, right?
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[SPEAKER_01] I'm sitting there... [SPEAKER_01] That's why we're having it, because we're ahead of the times.
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[SPEAKER_01] I'm not totally sure. [SPEAKER_01] I sat there at this...
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[SPEAKER_04] I got invited to a founder event last week to give a talk. [SPEAKER_04] And then I watched lightning talks from 10 to 20 founders in a row about their AI implementations. [SPEAKER_01] These are very sophisticated businesses. [SPEAKER_01] We're talking businesses on the scale of anywhere from tens of millions to hundreds of millions in revenue per month. [SPEAKER_01] And everyone is trying to switch out as many open source models as possible across their entire stack. [SPEAKER_01] That's the active conversation. [SPEAKER_01] Switch in as open source. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah, because Quinn's on the rise. [SPEAKER_01] No, I think you misheard me.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] So you're interrupting OpenAI, and open source is a real threat. [SPEAKER_01] So what do you do from a pricing standpoint? [SPEAKER_01] Well, what I'm actually hearing is that they're trying to make open source illegal at the federal level. Oh, my goodness. [SPEAKER_04] Dave, you just broke big news on the pod. [SPEAKER_04] The classic regulatory capture move. [SPEAKER_04] More litigation. [SPEAKER_01] I'm not... [SPEAKER_04] This is not... [SPEAKER_01] This is being talked about on Twitter. [SPEAKER_04] This is not just... [SPEAKER_01] This is there's two models. [SPEAKER_01] One is, if you have a utility... [SPEAKER_01] Jess, break it. I just did.
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[SPEAKER_01] I mean... If you have a low cost... If you have a competitive utility, as I've pointed out, and we've talked about it before, [SPEAKER_04] this is so much worse than a power company.
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[SPEAKER_04] At least with a power company, you can't ship power around the world globally, right?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] This is being in an unregulated utility business where you have no regulatory barriers and no physical barriers. [SPEAKER_02] So you can be with everyone globally. [SPEAKER_02] You're fucked, right? [SPEAKER_02] And so one is create regulatory capture, where we say, okay, instead of PG&E, it's you can only use OpenAI in California, because it's the only safe model, right? [SPEAKER_02] That's option one. [SPEAKER_02] And this is very real, by the way, in the United States. [SPEAKER_02] So it's that, or if you have a utility that you convinced everyone was worth tech multiples, there's the South Park answer, which is... [SPEAKER_02] What is it?
SPEAKER_01
You start up, you cash in, and you bro down.
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[SPEAKER_01] You gotta get out. Okay, explain that a little bit more, Sam.
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[SPEAKER_02] Give me a little bit more. [SPEAKER_02] This is the South Park model of business building. [SPEAKER_02] You start up, you cash in, and you bro down. [SPEAKER_02] And these guys are moving from cash in to bro down right now, because they're... [SPEAKER_04] What does that mean? [SPEAKER_02] What can you... [SPEAKER_02] Can you say it again?
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[SPEAKER_03] Can you draw your analogy more clearly? [SPEAKER_03] Guys, one of the ways...
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[SPEAKER_04] One of the ways that I know how things are going in the city with the cashing in part is what kind of cars I see on Highway 1 every day.
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[SPEAKER_04] Just Waymos. [SPEAKER_04] Not on Highway 1, actually.
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I saw a diamond encrusted supercar on Highway 1 this morning.
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[SPEAKER_01] It was literally full of gems. [SPEAKER_01] This is called Miami Crypto 2000 or whatever. [SPEAKER_01] I've never seen anything like this. [SPEAKER_04] I literally was like, what was that? [SPEAKER_01] It was so bright. [SPEAKER_01] The problem is... [SPEAKER_01] The problem is with all this. This is the thing that blows everyone's brains, two things can be true... [SPEAKER_04] is what kind of cars I see on Highway 1 every day. [SPEAKER_04] Just Waymos. [SPEAKER_04] Not on Highway 1, actually. [SPEAKER_01] I saw a diamond encrusted supercar on Highway 1 this morning. [SPEAKER_01] It was literally full of gems.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] Yeah, this is called Miami Crypto 2000 or whatever. [SPEAKER_01] I've never seen anything this. [SPEAKER_04] I literally was, what was that? [SPEAKER_01] It was so bright. [SPEAKER_01] The problem is... [SPEAKER_01] The problem is with all this, this is the thing that blows everyone's brains, [SPEAKER_01] is two things can be true...
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When did this become LA?
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] Two things can be true at the same time. Thing one is, this stuff is so fun to build software with, and I have better software for myself than I've ever had, and I'm loving it, right? Two, it's actually a bad business, right? And that's very hard for people to wrap their heads around that both things can be
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] true at the same time. [SPEAKER_02] At least we're talking about both things being true at the same time now, Sam, [SPEAKER_02] because we know people are tired of us telling them that it's a bad business. [SPEAKER_02] So we have to figure out how to get from here to there.
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You've been saying this every episode. I don't get what's new about any of this. [SPEAKER_01] It's a little more nuanced because I think it's very possible that Anthropic and OpenAI
SPEAKER_01
could prove to be bad businesses. And by bad businesses, that means very low margins, not that much revenue. [SPEAKER_03] But this era is that we, if this were a year before the Meta IPO or a couple [SPEAKER_03] of years before the Meta IPO, we'd be talking about whether Meta could ever make any money.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] That's not true at all. [SPEAKER_04] Meta made money the whole way through. [SPEAKER_04] That's actually, Meta was highly profitable from almost year two. [SPEAKER_04] Okay. [SPEAKER_04] We would be talking about a scale of numbers, fair enough, that was much smaller than 20 billion, 30 billion in ARR. So I do think you have to give these, you can look at the existential landscape and the competition and everything and say, it is still an open question how good these businesses [SPEAKER_04] are. [SPEAKER_04] I think that's true. [SPEAKER_04] But you also have to give them credit for the business they built. [SPEAKER_04] Can I sell you a dollar for 90 cents?
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[SPEAKER_04] The problem is that. [SPEAKER_04] Well, but that's saying that the valuations are the problem.
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[SPEAKER_04] But Sam, something's happening. [SPEAKER_04] I think Jess is right.
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[SPEAKER_02] There's something happening worth analyzing more deeply. [SPEAKER_02] And look, here's the reality of the open models, right? [SPEAKER_04] They're not as good, right? Under 70 billion parameters. You guys just said you named three that were good. I don't know.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] Let me finish. [SPEAKER_01] Under 70 billion parameters. [SPEAKER_01] They don't. It's very hard to get them to talk for any number of turns. [SPEAKER_01] It's just uninteresting to talk to for a long period of time.
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Their tool calling is okay. It'll get there.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] It'll get there. [SPEAKER_01] But you have Sam, each time the big models come out, all of our expectations raised, [SPEAKER_01] right? [SPEAKER_01] For what's possible at the high end.
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And so you have this thing where open source is also always going to be lagging the frontier.
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[SPEAKER_01] And so it's not going to be a total replacement.
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And so Jess, that's the answer to your question, which is, what are you thinking at the strategic level if you're a frontier lab? Well, you're trying to make the next model happen, right? Because that raises the bar for everybody in the whole world as to what they expect is possible.
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[SPEAKER_01] And then on the open source side, you're trying to do regulatory capture, at least in the United
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[SPEAKER_01] States, right? [SPEAKER_01] Yes.
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Which is where we were starting this.
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[SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] And I think that's actually a really interesting question because my experience from working [SPEAKER_04] on an open claw is that the Chinese innovation and open source models is really rapid and [SPEAKER_04] really impressive. [SPEAKER_04] These guys are doing extremely good work, extremely quickly.
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And by the way, there's no great open source American model that is truly open source. Google's putting out a good one, but that's Google, right? And so I think it's an interesting foreign policy problem that we have no American models and all of the American models are massively for profit. And so I think that's a really serious community question we should be answering.
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[SPEAKER_01] And people will dive into this and be, oh, this is about ideology.
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And safety, there should be no American model because it's not safe. Right. And so there's all these aspects of this that I don't know, aren't being talked about and are the real things. You know what we should do?
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[SPEAKER_01] We should do what Europe did to us on the internet. [SPEAKER_01] We should put some GDPR stuff all over the Chinese models.
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You know, some things to click on.
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[SPEAKER_02] So do we think that Anthropic is going to try and block open source in the U.S. [SPEAKER_02] or that that will even happen? [SPEAKER_02] I think it's going to be a tough stop. [SPEAKER_02] Is there precedent for this in any other industry? [SPEAKER_04] There's literally bills that have been proposed.
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[SPEAKER_04] Guys, we can't even block TikTok in the U.S.
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[SPEAKER_04] How do you think we're going to block this? [SPEAKER_04] Right, guys.
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[SPEAKER_03] We haven't talked about TikTok in a while. [SPEAKER_02] It's, I just, I hear you. [SPEAKER_02] I actually, look, I actually could get behind the theory that there are dangerous models [SPEAKER_02] and what sandbox. [SPEAKER_02] I have no idea how you actually implement any of that, but it is an interesting.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] That's the problem, Sam, is it's impossible to implement. [SPEAKER_02] And you and I both know it, when you can just download the weights for these things [SPEAKER_02] onto your laptop, it's impossible.
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Right.
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[SPEAKER_02] And so you have to think about policy from a totally different angle.
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It just doesn't. [SPEAKER_01] I actually think you don't think about policy.
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[SPEAKER_02] I hear you. I actually could get behind the theory that there are dangerous models and what sandbox. I have no idea how you actually implement any of that, but it is interesting.
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[SPEAKER_04] That's the problem, Sam, is it's impossible to implement. And you and I both know it. When you can just download the weights for these things onto your laptop, it's impossible. Right. And so you have to think about policy from a totally different angle. It just doesn't. [SPEAKER_01] I actually think you don't think about policy. What I think you probably think about in terms of how this actually plays out is assume you're not gonna get borders for this type of stuff. The only logical conclusion is AI to AI warfare. [SPEAKER_01] Right.
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But you're like, we need to launch Anthropic launches a full assault on destroying the open source models and tricking them and just making them worse.
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[SPEAKER_02] Right. [SPEAKER_02] There has to be, that's actually the logical conclusion of this. You can never put up regulation. Regulation will never work, but war does. [SPEAKER_02] I'm gonna have to think on that one. [SPEAKER_02] I think that's actually, if you think about it, the Neil Stephenson book version of this would be that we can't defend ourselves from cheap open models and they're subverting our country. Forget what you think. You think that the Chinese social engineering budget around the U.S. is subverting the U.S.
SPEAKER_02
Wait till they get into the models. Right. You're like, okay, our only logical solution is to assault. That's what they are doing. I mean, that is what they're doing. Right. The benchmarks, there were a bunch of benchmarks that came out two, three weeks ago that show that Qwen specifically, which everyone is saying is the best, the best, the best I'm using. [SPEAKER_01] It is by far the most biased. [SPEAKER_01] The model is extremely biased. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] I get it.
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I get it. I get it. It's a really interesting problem. It's the algorithmic social media problem on massive steroids, right. That distributes and you can't even stop it. [SPEAKER_02] Right. [SPEAKER_02] And so someone told me this week, I don't know if this is true or not, but it was an interesting fact at a meeting. They were saying that the Chinese are running an $80 billion a year social engineering budget against the U.S. right now.
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Right.
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[SPEAKER_02] Social engineering. [SPEAKER_02] So the U.S. has an $8 billion.
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[SPEAKER_02] What are they doing? [SPEAKER_02] TikTok.
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[SPEAKER_02] So we're running an eight, two orders of magnitude less in terms of whatever the relevant unit is. [SPEAKER_02] That's, again, who knows if this is true or the details of it.
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[SPEAKER_03] But the idea is this is very organized and at scale. [SPEAKER_02] And I'm like, oh, this is an even bigger battlefield. [SPEAKER_02] And you're like, you just can't. There are no borders. [SPEAKER_02] And so the only answer is going to be algorithmic warfare. [SPEAKER_02] Does this play into the Manus block at all that came out this week? [SPEAKER_02] I'm sorry, but this was the most obvious news.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] It was, but it took a while. [SPEAKER_01] It's surprising how long it took, right?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Presumably they would have done some amount of integration already. [SPEAKER_03] And so how do you unwind that? [SPEAKER_03] They were trying, but they summoned the team back from Singapore and then wouldn't let them work. For people who are following. Wait, they actually went back from Singapore to mainland China? Yeah. [SPEAKER_04] And they went? [SPEAKER_04] They had to. [SPEAKER_04] Yeah, they had to. [SPEAKER_02] They had to.
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[SPEAKER_01] What do you mean they had to?
SPEAKER_04
They're families, Sam. They're families. This was spy game stuff, Sam.
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[SPEAKER_04] So for people who haven't been following, Meta acquired, well, let's go back. I remember Benchmark invested in this Singapore-based but Chinese-run agent company, right?
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[SPEAKER_01] And they were like, they did a big lick the cookie lap on it. And it was like, oh guys, cross-border investing's back.
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[SPEAKER_04] And this was the height of, that's how Benchmark's beat.
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[SPEAKER_01] No, I don't know.
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[SPEAKER_04] No, it's actually you took a risk, you lose. [SPEAKER_04] And this was exactly at the height of TikTok. Cross-border investing wasn't back. There was no window. No, it wasn't. It was extremely risky. It's only back if Elon says it's back.
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[SPEAKER_04] This investment was extremely risky at the time.
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[SPEAKER_04] This was extremely risky, but of course they made it and then they.
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[SPEAKER_01] It was a Hail Mary and now it fully missed. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah.
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[SPEAKER_01] It has. [SPEAKER_01] Yeah. And then the company chugs along.
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[SPEAKER_01] Then you have Meta and we'll get to earnings later because I know you guys listen to us for earnings. [SPEAKER_04] It's the only reason. [SPEAKER_04] But you have Meta. [SPEAKER_04] I mean, I sure do. [SPEAKER_04] This is how Dave knows what companies are doing. [SPEAKER_04] No. [SPEAKER_04] So Meta is on the hunt for a new agent strategy, a new business model, new things. [SPEAKER_01] It's talking to a lot of places about acquisitions. [SPEAKER_04] They get very excited about Meta. [SPEAKER_04] Okay. [SPEAKER_04] Interesting deal.
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[SPEAKER_04] You're watching this and you're setting your clock for when China is going to interfere. [SPEAKER_04] And of course they interfered and they did soon after in terms of challenging the deal, calling back some of the key team to China.
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[SPEAKER_04] So they were in clear integration limbo. [SPEAKER_04] And now the deal is off and they're unwinding it. [SPEAKER_04] But they did integrate it already, which is kind of wild. [SPEAKER_04] I think some of it. [SPEAKER_04] I think some of it.
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[SPEAKER_01] It's talking to a lot of places about acquisitions. They get very excited about Meta.
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[SPEAKER_04] Okay. [SPEAKER_04] Interesting deal. [SPEAKER_04] You're watching this and you're setting your clock for when China is going to interfere.
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[SPEAKER_04] And of course they interfered and they did quickly after in terms of challenging the deal, calling back some of the key team to China. [SPEAKER_04] So they were in clear integration limbo.
SPEAKER_04
And now the deal is off and they're unwinding it. But they did integrate it already though, which is wild. I think some of it. I think some of it.
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[SPEAKER_04] What does that mean though? [SPEAKER_04] Does money go back to investors? [SPEAKER_02] Are they yeah. [SPEAKER_03] Does code go back?
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[SPEAKER_03] How do you unwind it?
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[SPEAKER_03] These are great questions. [SPEAKER_03] I don't know the answers to all of them. [SPEAKER_03] I've seen some headlines. [SPEAKER_00] But did you change your hair color? [SPEAKER_04] I did. [SPEAKER_04] Thank you.
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[SPEAKER_04] Back to my roots. [SPEAKER_04] Yes, Sam. We talked about this earlier. [SPEAKER_04] Well, let's circle back to that topic. [SPEAKER_04] I like it. [SPEAKER_04] Let's circle back. [SPEAKER_04] It looks great. [SPEAKER_04] Britt, because of you, I'm going to start brushing. [SPEAKER_04] I hurt my shoulder, so I can't brush my hair. [SPEAKER_04] So that's why I have to apologize to everyone for my appearance.
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[SPEAKER_04] Just wing it. [SPEAKER_04] It's fine. [SPEAKER_04] Britt is crushing it.
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[SPEAKER_04] This will convince people to tune into the video stream who are only on audio. [SPEAKER_04] Guys, you can rate Britt's hair versus my hair every Wednesday and we'll see.
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One of these days, I'll get it done. I don't know the particulars of it. [SPEAKER_03] And you've got to give Meta points for trying. [SPEAKER_03] I mean, you give points for trying. But I do think back to being told that cross-border investing was back just as NVIDIA chips were getting banned in China and DeepSeek researchers were having their passports confiscated as reported by The Information.
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[SPEAKER_04] And here we are. [SPEAKER_04] So we're back to exactly where we knew we were. [SPEAKER_04] Guys, Google. This is where we turned to the pod and ripped on an earnings report of greater than expected profits.
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I can't believe I don't know Google stock. It's my alma mater. [SPEAKER_03] And I've been long Google since the beginning. Just going to lick that cookie. Thank you. [SPEAKER_02] The good news is every time Sam said he loved Google, I bought. [SPEAKER_03] Good, Dave. [SPEAKER_03] Way to go.
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[SPEAKER_03] Smart man. [SPEAKER_03] At least one of us is making money.
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[SPEAKER_01] But there are two things I regret in life.
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[SPEAKER_04] One is I remember early on, financially in the public markets recently, early on, do you remember when there was this really funny situation where Nancy Pelosi's husband right around New Year's bought an insane number of NVIDIA calls? [SPEAKER_02] And there's this joke about how Nancy Pelosi's husband is the greatest trader in the history of the world. [SPEAKER_02] And I was like, that's actually pretty good. [SPEAKER_02] I don't know any of this stuff. [SPEAKER_02] I should probably copy the Nancy Pelosi tweet. [SPEAKER_02] And I really thought about it.
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[SPEAKER_02] And I did the math on it. It's insane.
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[SPEAKER_02] I think he probably made $50 million. [SPEAKER_02] I'm a million, two million bucks out. [SPEAKER_02] Good for him. [SPEAKER_02] And the second is this Alphabet thing where I've been calling forever that people are miscounting Alphabet. [SPEAKER_02] And yet I don't pull the trigger because I'm bad at this. [SPEAKER_02] By the way, Google I/O is coming up very soon. [SPEAKER_02] And I think there's going to be a ton of new Gemini stuff coming. [SPEAKER_02] And we haven't talked about Gemini in a long time. [SPEAKER_02] I know we talked about Gemma just now. [SPEAKER_02] But what a formidable company. [SPEAKER_03] It's such a formidable company.
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[SPEAKER_03] It's crazy. [SPEAKER_03] I think by the end of this year, Gemini is much higher in the rankings. [SPEAKER_03] Even just the returns that they're going to see from their SpaceX and Anthropic investment is insane. But you do because you see an AI overview or two if you're still ever using... No, to be clear, I use Google. It's funny to me. The entire chatbot paradigm is just so uninteresting. [SPEAKER_03] I don't use any of them anymore. I'm deep in other stuff. But it does seem like from a Good Morning America perspective, Gemini is in a good place.
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Good Morning America. [SPEAKER_02] Which by the way, Sam, I think that's one of the big opportunities that nobody's paying attention to right now, which is that there's only something like three to four million Codex users, which means there's also in single digit millions cloud code users. [SPEAKER_02] Yet everybody in town thinks that this stuff is broadly out there and that everyone's realizing what's going on.
SPEAKER_01
It's game over. Anthropic's winning everything. Nope. There are six billion people that use software in the world. And there's only 50 million total software engineers, single digit millions doing all this stuff. [SPEAKER_03] There's literally a five billion person market out there for figuring out how to bring agents to the normal person. [SPEAKER_03] Or maybe you don't want to experience them and don't use them that much. Also, by the way, I don't know. There's probably Claude actually projects there's 1.8 to two and a half billion people with Google accounts in the world. So 30% of the global population have Google accounts.
SPEAKER_01
I just asked, what's the—basically 50 to 100 million people use terminal or CLI interfaces at least occasionally. [SPEAKER_03] So maybe it's one in 10 right now, Dave. [SPEAKER_03] But let's see. [SPEAKER_03] So the reason Google's earnings outperformed is really cloud growth. [SPEAKER_03] And the reason I think Microsoft had decent numbers, but the stock is down is because cloud growth was around expectations.
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But expectations are so high these days that if you just hit them, investors aren't happy. [SPEAKER_01] with Google accounts in the world. [SPEAKER_01] So 30% of the global population have Google accounts. [SPEAKER_01] I just asked what's the, so 50 to 100 million people use terminal or CLI interfaces at least occasionally.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] So maybe it's one in 10 right now, Dave. [SPEAKER_03] But let's see. [SPEAKER_03] So the reason Google, Google's earnings outperformed is really cloud growth. [SPEAKER_03] And the reason I think Microsoft that had decent numbers, but the stock is down is because cloud growth, I think was around expectations.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] But expectations are so high these days that if you just hit them, investors aren't happy.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] But I have a team of 50 reporters who could presumably help answering this question, but I still don't understand how Google Cloud is growing so fast. [SPEAKER_04] Are they, what are they bundling? [SPEAKER_04] Is it the TPU moment? [SPEAKER_04] The Gemini moment?
SPEAKER_04
Or is it, the funniest thing is I looked at this recently, my number one line item changes in terms of my costs of the infrastructure I run for myself since all this agenda, it's actually curious.
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Dave, you're the only one with the prayer of getting this right. [SPEAKER_04] What do you think I've spent the most? Digital Ocean. Thanks. Thanks, Sam.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] But it's in Digital Ocean because I love Digital Ocean. [SPEAKER_02] I got it right. [SPEAKER_03] No, no, no. [SPEAKER_03] There's a specific thing in Digital Ocean. [SPEAKER_03] Where am I actually spending money?
SPEAKER_02
I got the biller on the credit card. It's not a token. [SPEAKER_03] Where am I actually spending money? It's not, it's definitely not tokens. Memory, storage. Yeah, basically, Jess. [SPEAKER_04] I'll give it to you. [SPEAKER_03] Oh, two, four, two. The answer is it's Postgres. My Postgres bill is the thing that's gone up the most.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] It's databases.
SPEAKER_02
So that's the irony of this whole thing is it's not the actual place that someone like me, and again, I'm a pretty aggressive user and I've built a lot of apps and I think it's great, but I use it in a very specific way. The thing I'm actually spending a ton more money on, which Wall Street's already figured out because they priced this in, is actually storage and database. It's not the actual agents. Because all of a sudden, all this data that used to be not that useful is super useful. And so I'm okay, well, now I have to save everything. And that's the place where there's actually leverage in the system. So I know they've already run up a bunch.
SPEAKER_02
Another missed trading opportunity, if you understood this early, is it's the storage companies.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Storage companies are going to crush. [SPEAKER_02] Not just pure storage. [SPEAKER_02] But I mean, you're seeing this, right? [SPEAKER_02] Storage all the way up and down the stack is sold out worldwide. [SPEAKER_02] It's Seagate. [SPEAKER_02] It's people that are really... [SPEAKER_02] By the way, as a...
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] So as the dumbest user of Cloud Code in the category of least experienced technically, that is the thing that constantly surprises me about these services. [SPEAKER_01] The thing that my brain thinks they should do automatically that they don't is remember things. It is counterintuitive to me that I actually have to tell them that because no other service that I use operates that way. [SPEAKER_04] I type in a Google Doc and the concept of saving anything was erased a decade ago. [SPEAKER_04] But we're back to it again. [SPEAKER_04] And I forget to do it a lot. [SPEAKER_04] And it's really annoying.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] Can you ask it to save everything it does automatically? [SPEAKER_04] Yeah, I do that. [SPEAKER_04] I have it log everything. [SPEAKER_04] I also have every single request I make. [SPEAKER_04] I have it log all this data. [SPEAKER_04] I actually hilariously, I briefly was spending $100 a day on the Twitter API by accident because I was having it log everything. And I had to be like, oh, you don't need to do quite this much. But yeah, the reality is it's wild.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] Western Digital, Seagate, these stocks are ripping.
SPEAKER_02
They're up, you know, a thousand percent, right? Not a thousand percent, but 100x, 101x in the last month, right? Because everyone's coming to Jesus that actually, it's going to be energy and memory. Energy and memory is where the money is made. Oh, guys, here's some real time analysis from the Information team instead of just shooting my mouth off. Apparently, Google Cloud is up because of Anthropic.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] There you go.
SPEAKER_02
So maybe this is all a little more circular than we thought.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] Well, and they just did a big, they just put 40 billion into Anthropic too. [SPEAKER_04] They're just servicing them.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Or they're serving TPUs into their cloud, basically. [SPEAKER_04] Yeah. [SPEAKER_04] So they also are investing more, as is Amazon. [SPEAKER_04] And we have talked about my favorite battle of the week, guys.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] But what's also happening, and I don't know if this is the case with the Google Cloud deal, but Anthropic is so underserved in compute that they're buying in last minute deals and on the spot market and all that, which is bad for their margin, but is good for the provider. And I don't know what percentage of Google's so-called beat is that, but if there, it could be some Anthropic overage in there, which is really interesting. Well, this is the big thing about all these prices and these values, and I do just need to understand that people, this has been true for a while, but there's just people are just investing in stories.
[SPEAKER_04] They're just narratives and how strong the narrative is. [SPEAKER_04] They have no financial backing to reality in most cases. And Elon is the absolute king of this in terms of what's going on. [SPEAKER_02] But it's there was a, did you see the Paul Tudor Jones thing today that was floating on the internet? it could be some Anthropic overage in there, which is really interesting. Well, this is the big thing about all these prices and these values. I do just need to understand that people, this has been true for a while, but there's just people investing in stories. They're just narratives and how strong the narrative is.
They have no financial backing to reality in most cases. And Elon is the absolute king of this in terms of what's going on. [SPEAKER_02] But there was a Paul Tudor Jones thing today that was floating on the internet. Did you see that? [SPEAKER_02] I did see that.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] I haven't actually watched the whole thing yet, but I watched part of it. [SPEAKER_02] It looks excellent.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] And he's basically saying you can't invest in the S&P 500, right?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] His basic thing is I wanted to ask you what you thought of this, Sam. [SPEAKER_02] And if you saw it, it makes total sense. [SPEAKER_02] He's saying, look, yes, on a hundred year basis, the S&P 500 has been a good bet, but at 22 times earnings or whatever, I don't want to misquote it, although I'll misquote it. [SPEAKER_02] It was 21 or 22.
SPEAKER_01
It's insane. [SPEAKER_02] We're so far off. [SPEAKER_02] You need it at six to get to a positive.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] You need to be at six times every once in a while. [SPEAKER_02] And we're so out of whack.
SPEAKER_01
So then what happens? [SPEAKER_02] Everyone's saying, well, I have a bunch of money. [SPEAKER_02] It has to be stuffed somewhere. [SPEAKER_02] And I can't put it into the economy because it doesn't make any sense.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] So I'm just going to store it in stories, right?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] And the way you store it in stories is with Elon or with Anthropic or whatever. [SPEAKER_02] So that's also not good investing, which I think is perhaps what's dangerous right now, right?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] The question is what's investing and what's trading anymore? [SPEAKER_02] If you can't be long the S&P 500 right now, then I think that's the thing is that you can't forget value investing. [SPEAKER_02] You can't be long financial returns in any logical sense. [SPEAKER_01] And so as this thing spins out of control, you're just long narrative, right? [SPEAKER_01] And everyone's a trader. [SPEAKER_02] Yes.
SPEAKER_01
How does that end?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] It doesn't seem good. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. [SPEAKER_02] Badly unless it doesn't. [SPEAKER_02] That's the thing, right? Badly unless it doesn't. I think that is the truth is that people are betting to the upside of that trade. [SPEAKER_02] Is this what we call a risk on market? [SPEAKER_01] What would we call this? [SPEAKER_02] Does buy using now? [SPEAKER_01] It's not risk on. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah. [SPEAKER_01] Okay. Because the fundamentals aren't there.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] Yeah.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] The fundamentals aren't there. [SPEAKER_01] And so the only possible explanation is that people have convinced themselves that the demand for tokens is infinity and will continue to go up. [SPEAKER_01] And so put all money in that narrative. [SPEAKER_01] That's basically what's going on. [SPEAKER_01] And the reality of the price of any of these things you're investing in has nothing to do with reality.
SPEAKER_00
[SPEAKER_01] It only has to do with the price that it already was and then where it's going.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] And therefore it's all just story. [SPEAKER_01] Right. [SPEAKER_01] Which is really scary because there's no global liquid fundamentals against that. [SPEAKER_02] But I also, some of these stories, the Catholic church did okay for a few hundred years on stories.
SPEAKER_02
You can have these story bubbles.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] Yeah. [SPEAKER_02] We had my colleagues, we hosted an event on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, all about where we are. [SPEAKER_02] And it's specifically on financing AI and data center. [SPEAKER_02] So wonky stuff, good sentiment stuff. [SPEAKER_02] And everyone's about to burst, but we don't know when. [SPEAKER_02] Sam, I hadn't considered... Where did Sam go? Sam is... There he is. He's back. Sam, I had not considered the idea that the Catholic church's narrative that was so successful for many hundreds of years was a Doomer narrative.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] And that the Anthropic Doomer narrative basically uses the exact same fear trick in order to create a similar narrative and that maybe they have actually chosen the correct narrative technology to win. [SPEAKER_03] Dave, I'm going to make an observation. [SPEAKER_01] You really want to talk about Anthropic.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_01] I do. [SPEAKER_01] Is there more you want to say right now?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_01] No. No, it's good. But I think it's reflecting some sentiment that is broadening in the industry. [SPEAKER_01] I think it's just good to be balanced on all these things. I see. [SPEAKER_01] The good old balance hack. Yes. Okay. We got through earnings.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_01] We talked AI pricing.
SPEAKER_04
We got our trial. [SPEAKER_00] What else is happening in the world right now?
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] I will say for tennis fans, I interviewed Maria Sharapova this week, five-time Grand Slam champion.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] And she didn't want to talk to me about it. [SPEAKER_04] I wanted to talk to her about tennis and the status of Alcaraz's wrist. [SPEAKER_04] She laughed at me. [SPEAKER_04] She does not care about the status of Alcaraz's wrist.
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[SPEAKER_04] Hopefully it'll be fine for Wimbledon.
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I don't even know what that means. Alcaraz is hurt, right? He's been out.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] He's out. [SPEAKER_04] He's out for Roland Garros. [SPEAKER_04] But anyway, she has a new podcast that we should plug here. [SPEAKER_04] It's called Pretty Tough. [SPEAKER_01] And I think it's pretty good. [SPEAKER_01] It is, yes, a girl bossy women in business podcast. [SPEAKER_04] I'll tell you why in a second. [SPEAKER_04] But it's... [SPEAKER_04] I listened to the first interview and it did not feel like... [SPEAKER_04] Why do athletes need podcasts? [SPEAKER_04] Everyone's training. [SPEAKER_04] Everyone's doing a podcast. [SPEAKER_04] Jessica just listens to all of them, Dave. [SPEAKER_04] I didn't have time for that many podcasts.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] I used to be... [SPEAKER_04] But anyway, she has a new podcast that we should plug here. [SPEAKER_04] It's called Pretty Tough. [SPEAKER_01] And I think it's pretty good.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_01] It is, yes, a girl bossy women in business podcast. [SPEAKER_04] I'll tell you why in a second. [SPEAKER_04] But it's... [SPEAKER_04] I listened to the first interview and it did not feel like... [SPEAKER_04] Why do athletes need podcasts?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Everyone's training. [SPEAKER_04] Everyone's doing a podcast. [SPEAKER_04] Jessica just listens to all of them, Dave.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] I didn't have time for that many podcasts.
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[SPEAKER_04] I used to be... I probably listen to three podcasts a week and I just rotate.
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[SPEAKER_03] I want an agent that can take the 20 podcasts I care about and cut the best parts of them into one good podcast.
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[SPEAKER_01] But that's not why I listen to podcasts, though. [SPEAKER_03] I listen to them to kill time. [SPEAKER_03] I listen to them for entertainment, not information. [SPEAKER_03] Yeah, but you just... [SPEAKER_03] There's so many. [SPEAKER_03] I gotta say, you should...
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] For your boys... [SPEAKER_04] So you guys... [SPEAKER_04] I actually... [SPEAKER_04] I'll send you the link. [SPEAKER_04] Lessonboypodcast.ai. [SPEAKER_02] I actually now...
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] I've listened to more podcasts in a long time because I just decided to make them for our kids. [SPEAKER_02] So now whenever they want to listen to something in a car, I just email my bot. [SPEAKER_02] I say, make a podcast on how Minecraft was made or the history of Nintendo or how EA Sports FC Mobile 26 was made or Jetpack Joyride.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] It's pretty good, guys. [SPEAKER_02] It's awesome. [SPEAKER_02] I gotta say... [SPEAKER_02] I've learned so much. [SPEAKER_02] Would you rather listen to the same shitty kids' podcasts or be like, no, I do want to learn about this thing. [SPEAKER_04] It's really good.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] How Baseball 9 was built, it's so fascinating. [SPEAKER_04] And I would never... [SPEAKER_04] It's like the Acquired podcast, but less boy style. [SPEAKER_04] So I guess...
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[SPEAKER_04] I was like, I got sick of listening to our kids' stupid stuff. [SPEAKER_04] So I literally... Now we just get in the car.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] I'm like, what do you want to learn about? [SPEAKER_03] And then I just prompt it, make a podcast on blank. [SPEAKER_02] And within five minutes, it's boom. [SPEAKER_02] And I will tell you, I really enjoyed them. [SPEAKER_02] I like the one about Tetris, the inventor of Tetris. [SPEAKER_02] I want to do that one. [SPEAKER_02] It's great. [SPEAKER_02] They're all five to 10 minutes. [SPEAKER_02] And they're really interesting. [SPEAKER_02] Sam used Eleven Labs voice. [SPEAKER_03] So it's him, but with some modulation.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] And I actually think putting some in our kids' voice would also be cute for them.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] Like they're like...
SPEAKER_02
That's a good idea. They want to hear them. [SPEAKER_04] Your kids' voices are going to be uploaded to the internet forever. [SPEAKER_04] Yeah. [SPEAKER_04] I don't think we want that for their banking security, but... [SPEAKER_04] Okay.
SPEAKER_03
Sorry. We don't... No, that's true.
SPEAKER_02
I didn't think about that, but... Just Sam's voice for his banking security is fine, though.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] I mean, his voice is on the internet.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] That's unfortunately, but... [SPEAKER_03] Speaking of media and content, can we talk about... [SPEAKER_03] The New York Times did the 30 Greatest Living American Songwriters Roundup.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] I watched all the Taylor videos.
SPEAKER_03
They were excellent.
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[SPEAKER_03] Me too. [SPEAKER_03] We also watched Jay-Z.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] I also want to shout out Dolly Parton, Paul Simon, Bob Dylan.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] There's so many good, Bad Bunny. [SPEAKER_03] I thought that it was a really great collection and package of content that I highly recommend people check out. [SPEAKER_04] Completely agree. [SPEAKER_04] I thought it was great. [SPEAKER_04] And I... [SPEAKER_04] Taylor Slade, she was so interesting. [SPEAKER_04] Yeah, she did good. [SPEAKER_04] I also want to call out Elon Musk is... [SPEAKER_04] His salary and comp package is now tied to the Mars colonization happening. [SPEAKER_04] So I feel like that bodes well in my favor for the 2040 bet. [SPEAKER_04] Britt's just worried about her bet with you, Sam. [SPEAKER_04] 2040 bet.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] You're still losing that. [SPEAKER_03] One human steps on Mars is the bet. [SPEAKER_03] Million dollars. [SPEAKER_03] I'm counting on Sam's next secret project to pay for this bet the other direction. [SPEAKER_01] Listen, Britt, here's the beautiful thing. [SPEAKER_01] If Elon lands on Mars and hits that comp package, I will have made so much money that I won't even notice the million dollars that I owe you. [SPEAKER_03] So we're all good.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_03] That is a great emotional hedge to me. I feel like you just conceded. I feel like you just conceded the bet to me. [SPEAKER_02] So I'll take it.
SPEAKER_02
No, it's an incredible emotional hedge.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] I'm either getting paid a million dollars by Britt or I'm massively rich by 2040. [SPEAKER_02] I just really don't. [SPEAKER_03] Sometimes I don't have things to say. [SPEAKER_03] So maybe I shouldn't say them. [SPEAKER_03] But you can say mean things. [SPEAKER_02] I can take it. [SPEAKER_02] No, no, it's not. It's not about that. I have more incoming reporting confirming this really is an Anthropic bounce. Bounce? [SPEAKER_02] Oh, on Google. [SPEAKER_02]
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] Bounce would imply it was down. [SPEAKER_04] I'd say it's a moon. [SPEAKER_04] It's an Anthropic. Okay. Well, what do you guys have more into cooking this weekend? What's happening? Any more concerts? Wait, before we do that, can I tell you one other fun Anthropic story? [SPEAKER_04] Oh gosh. [SPEAKER_04] Sure. [SPEAKER_04] I had to text. [SPEAKER_04] I recently texted someone who used to work for me because someone was trying to get something fixed at Anthropic. I was like, oh yeah, this person works at Anthropic. And I texted him.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] This is a person who worked for me a long time ago. [SPEAKER_02] And when I pulled up the text thread, it was hilarious because the last texts I'd had with [SPEAKER_02] What are you guys into cooking this weekend? What's happening? Any more concerts? [SPEAKER_02] Wait, before we do that, can I tell you one other fun Anthropic story? Oh gosh. Sure.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_04] I had to text. I recently texted someone who used to work for me because someone was trying to get something fixed at Anthropic.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_02] I was, oh yeah, this person works at Anthropic. And I texted him. This is a person who worked for me a long time ago. And when I pulled up the text thread, it was hilarious because the last texts I'd had with him were 18 months to two years ago. And he was deciding between two offers, one between Anthropic and the other, a smaller startup. And he's comparing the comp packages and what they were, the valuation of Anthropic. So I have all this data from him. And it's really funny because I'm of course, well, I think they're both overvalued. And then I'm doing the math. I'm, good for you. You just made a lot of money. I want that. Anything else cooking? We've got birthday parties and a tennis tournament over here. We've got birthday parties and The Devil Wears Prada too. And yeah, maybe I'll go see that.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Yeah. Maybe I'll go see that.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] I think I've seen. And the Michael movie. By the way, the Michael movie is apparently crushing, even though the ratings are bad. It did a hundred million dollars in opening weekend. What is a Michael movie? [SPEAKER_03] The Michael movie is about Michael Jackson and his nephew or cousin or somebody actually plays him. But the whole Jackson estate is split on this because the narrative, they actually stopped the narrative by the 90s. So they didn't go in. [SPEAKER_02] No way.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] They are not split. They didn't go into the craziness about what happened later. They are super excited about how much money they're making. No, there's some of the Jackson family that claims they were molested by Michael, his nieces and nephews and things. [SPEAKER_01] And so they're, good times. [SPEAKER_03] The other part of the family is just cashing in. [SPEAKER_01] And this guy was so messed up.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] But then they're just telling the good part of the story. So anyway, I want to see that one too. Who actually owns the IP? All of the Jackson estate. Do they really? Yeah. There's no private equity or no big, no large scale family offices involved in this capital stack.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_01] I don't believe it. The Val Kilmer estate is the first to legally license his name and likeness into AI. And he's going to be in an upcoming movie. [SPEAKER_03] Oh, guys, the Met Gala is next Monday. Have you heard the controversy? [SPEAKER_01] No. [SPEAKER_01] The Met Gala is no longer cool. [SPEAKER_03] I read it. Why? [SPEAKER_04] Because Anna's out? [SPEAKER_04] Well, Anna's a toe out the door.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] I don't think she's really out the door, but there are a lot of people upset that Lauren Sanchez and Jeff Bezos or Lauren Sanchez Bezos and Jeff Bezos are hosting this. And there would be a lot of protests, a lot of anti-tech sentiment. And apparently they're not selling tickets. [SPEAKER_04] Oh. I would still buy a ticket for the record if allowed to buy a ticket. Do you still sell tickets to this? [SPEAKER_04] Yes. You pay a lot of money to go to the Met Gala. [SPEAKER_04] I thought you paid for a table. You can do either. Yes.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] They're not selling tables or tickets.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] What are they selling? They're not hitting their goals. They're not hitting their goals, according to this article. [SPEAKER_04] Oh, I see. I see. People aren't buying. They're for sale. [SPEAKER_04] I'm, what is the business model?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] It is a fundraiser for the Costume Institute.
SPEAKER_02
Anyway, I will be on the Instagram looking at the outfit. So I'm doing just fine with it. I'll be on. I just would, you know, just to catch everyone up on that fact. So, okay. [SPEAKER_04] Well, it's nice chatting with everybody. We have a whole quad here for the whole episode. Do you think Jason's son will go to the Met Gala next? [SPEAKER_04] Jason's son? [SPEAKER_04] Maybe the Tron guy. [SPEAKER_04] I don't know what you're talking about. [SPEAKER_04] Oh, that guy. [SPEAKER_04] I don't know. Justin's son. Yeah. He backed the Tron and then he bought all the Trump coins. [SPEAKER_03] And he's, there's all, I just feel he'll be the next person.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] I when Sam does pop culture predictions. [SPEAKER_03] Probably.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Yeah, Sam. That's probably right. [SPEAKER_02] Well, dear listeners, thank you for joining us for another episode. We would love your feedback.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_03] May take it, may not. But we appreciate it. I believe it. Because that makes the number go up.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] And make number go up. By the way, you guys see that I brought us a bunch of subscribers on YouTube?
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] No. It's so cute. Wait, you did what? We have 30,000 followers or more. [SPEAKER_04] Maybe 40 now. No, we have 57,000 subscribers. And it's, what I figured out. How did you follow that?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] It's, it cost $300. Here's the thing. It turns out, I tested this. [SPEAKER_03] If you put up, we should probably just buy a few million.
SPEAKER_02
It's so cheap. Well, then we can charge for ads.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_02
[SPEAKER_04] No.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] It's so cute.
SPEAKER_02
Wait, you did what?
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] We have 30,000 followers or more.
SPEAKER_04
Maybe 40 now. [SPEAKER_02] No, we have 57,000 subscribers. And it's what I figured out.
SPEAKER_01
How did you follow that? [SPEAKER_02] It cost $300. [SPEAKER_02] Here's the thing. [SPEAKER_02] It turns out, I tested this. [SPEAKER_03] If you put up, we should probably just buy a few million. [SPEAKER_02] It's so cheap. [SPEAKER_02] Well, then we can charge for ads. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, exactly. [SPEAKER_02] That actually makes me wonder about all of YouTube. [SPEAKER_02] No, no.
SPEAKER_02
The subscriber number on YouTube is clearly fake. Because I literally paid 300 bucks. [SPEAKER_03] Now, Dave, I did figure something out important. Which is, I just tested four. All I did is hit the promote button on four videos. Unsurprisingly, Brit and Jess massively outperform us on clicks. Perfect. That makes sense. We're putting you guys in front more. A hundred percent.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] You guys got to be every thumbnail. [SPEAKER_02] And we can just have whatever number of subscribers we want to invent on YouTube, it turns out. [SPEAKER_02] That makes me sad for YouTube. [SPEAKER_02] Yeah, I thought YouTube was less gameable than this. [SPEAKER_02] Well, let's game it while we can.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] And then we'll figure out monetization later. [SPEAKER_02] I just also want to say, I'm impressed with this game.
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[SPEAKER_02] We do business by talking. The only times you talk about business are in one or two text messages a month.
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Where we ponder whether we should build one. [SPEAKER_03] Or at the end of our episodes. [SPEAKER_03] To which I sometimes respond to the text message. [SPEAKER_03] Who wants to put 15 minutes on the calendar to talk about making money for the podcast? [SPEAKER_04] And everyone thumbs it up and then never responds.
SPEAKER_04
Jess, you know I'll get on a call with you to talk about that. Brent proposes things we should spend money on.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] And I propose that we should make money before we spend money.
SPEAKER_04
I want to make money too.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] For what it's worth, I also, when I hit the button to promote these things, I actually have no idea whose credit card is connected to it.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] It's probably mine. I literally have no idea. I think it's mine.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_04] Who made the channel?
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] That's through the credit card.
SPEAKER_00
[SPEAKER_02] I don't know.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_02] But whoever, you're going to have a few hundred bucks of tens of thousands of subscriber buys. [SPEAKER_02] It's less than all of our tokens. [SPEAKER_02] So it's fine. [SPEAKER_03] You know, that's an even better business model is not knowing who's paying. [SPEAKER_03] With that, don't listen to us for business advice. [SPEAKER_02] But do listen to us for tech advice. [SPEAKER_02] Because most of the time we know what we're talking about. [SPEAKER_03] And we'll see you back here next week. [SPEAKER_03] Guys, we have 200 bucks, 10,000 subscribers. It's unbelievable. Okay, I'm going to end before we reveal some fraudulent behavior going on. Goodbye.
SPEAKER_04
Okay, bye, guys. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
SPEAKER_01
[SPEAKER_02] Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson. [SPEAKER_02] And as for me, I'm at Britt.
SPEAKER_04
See you guys next time. [SPEAKER_03] I also want to call out Elon Musk because his salary and comp package is now tied to the Mars colonization happening. [SPEAKER_03] So I feel that bodes well in my favor for the 2040 event. [SPEAKER_03] Britt's just worried about her bet with you, Sam. [SPEAKER_03] I'm counting on Sam's next secret project to pay for this bet. [SPEAKER_02] Listen, Britt, here's the beautiful thing. [SPEAKER_02] If Elon lands on Mars and hits that comp package, I will have made so much money that I won't even notice the million dollars that I owe. [SPEAKER_03] Wait, all I care about is the million dollars.
SPEAKER_04
[SPEAKER_03] That is a great emotional hedge to me.
SPEAKER_01
I feel you just conceded.
SPEAKER_03
[SPEAKER_01] I feel you just conceded the bet to me. into one good podcast.
SPEAKER_01
But that's not why I listen to podcasts, though.
SPEAKER_03
I listen to them to kill time. I listen to them for entertainment, not information. Yeah, but you just... There's so many. I gotta say, you should...
SPEAKER_04
For your boys... So you guys... I actually... I'll send you the link. Lessonboypodcast.ai.
SPEAKER_02
I actually now... I've listened to more podcasts I have a long time because I just decided to make them for our kids. So now whenever they want to listen to something in a car, I just email my bot. I say, make a podcast on how Minecraft was made or the history of Nintendo or how EISports FC Mobile 26 was made or Jetpack Joyride. It's pretty good, guys. It's awesome. I gotta say... I've learned so much. Would you rather listen to the same shitty kids' podcasts or be like, no, I do want to learn about this thing.
SPEAKER_04
It's really good. How Baseball 9 was built, it's so fascinating. And I would never... It's kind of like the Acquired podcast, but less than boy style. So I guess basically... I was like, I got sick of listening to our kids' stupid stuff. So I literally...
SPEAKER_02
Now we just get in the car. I'm like, what do you want to learn about?
SPEAKER_03
And then I just prompt it, make a podcast on blank.
SPEAKER_02
And within five minutes, it's boom. And I will tell you, I really enjoyed them. I like the one about Tetris, the inventor of Tetris. I want to do that one. It's great. They're all like five to 10 minutes. And they're really interesting. Sam used Eleven Labs voice.
SPEAKER_03
So it's sort of him, but with some modulation. And I actually think putting some in our kids' voice would also be cute for them.
SPEAKER_02
Like they're like... That's a good idea. They want to hear them.
SPEAKER_04
Your kids' voices are going to be uploaded to the internet forever. Yeah. I don't think we want that for their banking security, but... Okay.
SPEAKER_03
Sorry. We don't... No, that's true.
SPEAKER_02
I didn't think about that, but... Just Sam's voice for his banking security is fine, though. I mean, his voice is on the internet.
SPEAKER_03
That's like, unfortunately, but like... Speaking of media and content, can we talk about... The New York Times did the 30 Greatest Living American Songwriters Roundup. I watched all the Taylor videos. They were excellent. Me too. We also watched Jay-Z. I also want to shout out Dolly Parton, Paul Simon, Bob Dylan. There's so many good, bad bunny. I thought that it was a really great sort of collection and package of content that I
SPEAKER_04
highly recommend people check out.
SPEAKER_03
Completely agree. I thought it was great. And I... You know, Taylor Slade, like she was so interesting. Yeah, she did good. I also want to call out Elon Musk is...
SPEAKER_04
His salary and comp package is now tied to the Mars colonization happening. So I feel like that bodes well in my favor for the 2040 bet. Britt's just worried about her bet with you, Sam. 2040 bet.
SPEAKER_03
You're still losing that. One human steps on Mars is the bet. Million dollars. I'm counting on Sam's next secret project to pay for this bet the other direction.
SPEAKER_01
Listen, Britt, here's the beautiful thing. If Elon lands on Mars and hits that comp package, I will have made so much money that I won't even notice the million dollars that I owe you.
SPEAKER_03
So like, we're all good. That is a great emotional hedge to me.
SPEAKER_01
I feel like you just conceded. I feel like you just conceded the bet to me.
SPEAKER_02
So I'll take it. No, it's an incredible emotional hedge. I'm either getting paid a million dollars by Britt or I'm massively rich by 2040. I just really don't.
SPEAKER_03
Sometimes I don't have things to say. So maybe I shouldn't say them. But you can say mean things.
SPEAKER_02
I can take it. No, no, it's not.
SPEAKER_04
It's not about that. I have more incoming reporting confirming this really is an anthropic bounce. Bounce?
SPEAKER_02
Oh, on Google.
SPEAKER_04
Bounce would imply it was down. I'd say it's a moon. It's an anthropic.
SPEAKER_02
Okay. Well, what do you guys more into cooking this weekend? Like what's happening? Any more concerts? Wait, before we do that, can I tell you one other fun anthropic story?
SPEAKER_04
Oh gosh. Sure. I had to text. I recently texted someone who used to work for me because someone was trying to get something fixed at anthropic.
SPEAKER_02
I was like, oh yeah, this person works at anthropic. And I texted him. This is a person who worked for me a long time ago. And when I pulled up the text thread, it was hilarious because the last texts I'd had with him were like 18 months to two years ago. And he was deciding between two offers, one between anthropic and the other, like it was a smaller startup. And he's like comparing the comp packages and what they were, the valuation of anthropic. So I have all this data from him. And it's really funny because I'm of course like, well, I think they're both overvalued, blah, blah, blah. And then I'm doing the math. I'm like, good for you. You just made a lot of money.
SPEAKER_02
I like that. Anything else cooking? We've got birthday parties and a tennis tournament over here. We've got birthday parties and the Devil Wears Prada too. And yeah. Maybe I'll go see that.
SPEAKER_04
Yeah. Maybe I'll go see that.
SPEAKER_03
I think I've seen. And the Michael movie. By the way, the Michael movie is apparently crushing, even though the ratings are bad. It did like a hundred million dollars in opening weekend.
SPEAKER_04
What is a Michael movie? The Michael movie is about Michael Jackson and his nephew or cousin or somebody actually
SPEAKER_03
plays him. But the whole Jackson estate is like split on this because, you know, the narrative, they actually stopped the narrative by the 90s. So they didn't go in.
SPEAKER_02
No way.
SPEAKER_03
They are not split. They didn't go into the craziness about what happened later. They are super excited about how much money they're making. No, there's some of the Jackson family that claims they were molested by Michael, like his nieces and nephews and things.
SPEAKER_01
And so they're like this. Good times.
SPEAKER_03
The other part of the family is just cashing in.
SPEAKER_01
And this guy was so messed up.
SPEAKER_03
And but then they're just telling the good part of the story. So anyway, I want to see that one too. Who actually owns the IP? I mean, like all of the Jackson estate. Do they really? Yeah. Mm hmm. There's no private equity or no, no big, no large scale family offices involved in this
SPEAKER_01
capital stack. Like, I don't believe it. The Val Kilmer estate is the first to legally license his name and likeness into AI.
SPEAKER_03
And he's going to be in an upcoming movie. Oh, guys, the Met Gal is next Monday.
SPEAKER_01
Have you heard the controversy? No. The Met Gal is no longer cool.
SPEAKER_03
I read it. Why?
SPEAKER_04
Because Anna's out? Well, Anna's like a toe out the door.
SPEAKER_03
I don't think she's really out the door, but there are a lot of people upset that Lauren
SPEAKER_04
Sanchez and Jeff Bezos or Lauren Sanchez Bezos and Jeff Bezos are hosting this. And there would be a lot of protests, a lot of anti-tech sentiment. And apparently they're not selling tickets. Oh. I would still buy a ticket for the record if allowed to buy a ticket. Do you still sell tickets to this? Yes. You pay a lot of money to go to the Met Gal. I thought you paid for a table.
SPEAKER_02
You can do either.
SPEAKER_04
Yes.
SPEAKER_02
They're not selling tables or tickets.
SPEAKER_04
What are they selling?
SPEAKER_04
They're not hitting their goals. They're not hitting their goals, according to this article. Oh, I see. I see. People aren't buying.
SPEAKER_02
They're for sale.
SPEAKER_04
I'm like, what is the business model? It is a fundraiser for the Costume Institute.
SPEAKER_02
Anyway, I will be on the Instagram looking at the outfit. So I'm doing just fine with it. I'll be on. I just would like, you know, just to catch everyone up on that fact. So, okay.
SPEAKER_04
Well, it's nice chatting with everybody. We have a whole quad here for the whole episode. Do you think Jason's son will go to the Met Gala next? Jason's son? Maybe the Tron guy. I don't know what you're talking about. Oh, that guy. I don't know.
SPEAKER_02
Justin's son. Yeah. He backed the Tron and then he bought all the Trump coins.
SPEAKER_03
And he's like, there's all, I just feel like he'll be the next person.
SPEAKER_04
I like when Sam does pop culture predictions.
SPEAKER_03
Probably.
SPEAKER_02
Yeah, Sam. That's probably right. Well, dear listeners, thank you for joining us for another episode. We would love your feedback.
SPEAKER_03
May take it, may not. But we appreciate it. I believe it. Because that makes the number go up.
SPEAKER_04
And make number go up. By the way, you guys see that I brought us a bunch of subscribers on YouTube? No. It's so cute.
SPEAKER_02
Wait, you did what? We have like 30,000 followers or more.
SPEAKER_04
Maybe 40 now.
SPEAKER_02
No, we have 57,000 subscribers. And it's like, what I figured out. How did you follow that? It's like, it cost like $300. Here's the thing. It turns out, I tested this.
SPEAKER_03
If you put up, we should probably just buy like a few million.
SPEAKER_02
It's so cheap. Well, then we can charge for ads. Yeah, exactly. That actually makes me wonder about all of YouTube. No, no. The subscriber number on YouTube is clearly fake. Because I just like literally paid 300 bucks.
SPEAKER_03
Now, Dave, I did figure something out important.
SPEAKER_02
Which is, I just tested four. All I did is hit the promote button on four videos. Unsurprisingly, Brit and Jess massively outperform us on clicks. Perfect. That makes sense. We're putting you guys in front more. A hundred percent. Like you guys got to be every thumbnail. And like, we can just have whatever number of subscribers we want to invent on YouTube, it turns out. That makes me sad for YouTube. Yeah, I thought YouTube was less gameable than this. Well, let's game it while we can. And then we'll figure out monetization later. I just also want to say, I'm impressed with this game. We do business by talking.
SPEAKER_03
The only times you talk about business are in one or two text messages a month.
SPEAKER_01
Where we ponder whether we should build one.
SPEAKER_03
Or at the end of our episodes. To which I sometimes respond to the text message. Who wants to put 15 minutes on the calendar to talk about making money for the podcast?
SPEAKER_04
And everyone thumbs it up and then never responds. Jess, you know I'll get on a call with you to talk about that. Brent proposes things we should spend money on. And I propose that we should make money before we spend money. I like to make money too. For what it's worth, I also, like, when I hit the button to promote these things, I actually have no idea whose credit card is connected to it.
SPEAKER_03
It's probably mine.
SPEAKER_04
I literally have no idea. I think it's mine. Who made the channel?
SPEAKER_02
That's through the credit card. I don't know. But whoever, like, you're going to have a few hundred bucks of, like, tens of thousands of subscriber buys. It's less than all of our tokens. So it's fine.
SPEAKER_03
You know, that's an even better business model is not knowing who's paying. With that, don't listen to us for business advice.
SPEAKER_02
But do listen to us for tech advice. Because most of the time we know what we're talking about.
SPEAKER_03
And we'll see you back here next week. Guys, we have 200 bucks, 10,000 subscribers.
SPEAKER_04
It's unbelievable. Okay, I'm going to end before we reveal some fraudulent behavior going on. Goodbye. Okay, bye, guys. If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
SPEAKER_02
Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less, at Dave Morin, at Lesson, at Jay Lesson. And as for me, I'm at Britt.
SPEAKER_04
See you guys next time.
SPEAKER_03
I also want to call out Elon Musk because his salary and comp package is now tied to the Mars colonization happening. So I feel like that bodes well in my favor for the 2040 event. Britt's just worried about her bet with you, Sam. I'm counting on Sam's next secret project to pay for this bet.
SPEAKER_02
Listen, Britt, here's the beautiful thing. If Elon lands on Mars and hits that comp package, I will have made so much money that I won't even notice the million dollars that I owe.
SPEAKER_03
Wait, all I care is about the million dollars. That is a great emotional hedge to me.
SPEAKER_01
I feel like you just conceded. I feel like you just conceded the bet to me.